Thread by @akoz33

I am inclined to think that Trump really wanted to make a deal with Iran (for which, in his mind, he would have deserved a Nobel prize) but as Khamenei would not go along, he agreed to go along with Netanyahu’s plans. I think Bibi has so far played this masterfully- in anybody

in this affair is a chess player - it’s him. Winning over Trump was not easy as Trump is actually very risk averse but Netanyahu persuaded him that he would take all the risk of things going wrong and Trump would get the credit for success. I am inclined to believe that Trump’s

reluctance to support Israel’s action was real, but its effect was to lull Iran into a false sense of security. The evidence that Trump was hedging his bets is Rubio’s early statement, already after Israeli strikes began, that the U.S. had nothing to do with them and was not

going to help Israel in any way. Those who want to credit Trump claim that this was part of the brilliant strategy of deception but this claim only makes sense for statements made before the start of the operation.
So, in my opinion, the “deception” was Bibi’s work and Trump

was only a not entirely willing participant. Only when it became clear that Israel was succeeding, Trump became more supportive and, naturally, began to take credit. Netanyahu, who contrary to what his many enemies say, is not very vain or at least, always put effectiveness above

public applause, will certainly let Trump keep as much credit as he wants (Zelensky also tried this approach but less skillfully & Trump has not been tempted, at least so far).
I suspect that Trump is still thinking of making a deal with Khamenei but Bibi will probably succeed

selling regime change to him, if it looks very likely and Israel does all the heavy lifting. Trump may be persuaded that if the Mullah regime, which survived 8 U.S. presidents + Trump’s first term, is brought down on his watch, he will be able to present it as an even greater

achievement than the Abraham Accords. They won’t give him the Nobel, but they won’t be able to say TACO this time.