Thread by @DrSimEvans

IEA: Oil still on track to peak by 2030; oil for fuel to peak in 2027

"annual growth slows…to just a trickle over the next several years, with a small decline expected in 2030, based on today’s policy settings and market trends"

Here are some of the most striking charts 🧵
1/8

In recent years, global oil demand has been almost entirely driven by growth in China…

…and that party is now over

Equally, US "dominance" of rising oil supply is also a thing of the past
2/8

Since last year, the IEA has raised its oil demand outlook for the US, due to EV rollbacks etc, but it has simultaneously cut its outlook for China by the same amount

So global demand in 2030 is right where the IEA thought it would be last year
3/8

China's flat oil demand to 2030 combines falling use of oil as a fuel (look at that chart!) with rising petrochemical demand

IEA says this is due to rapid adoption of EVs and LNG trucks + market fundamentals (weak construction sector, ageing economy etc)
4/8

The rise in global oil demand to 2030 is therefore down to developing Asia, esp India and what the IEA calls the "Tiger cubs", whereas demand in developed countries declines
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EVs are set to take a massive bite out of global oil demand by 2030 – more than 5m barrels of oil per day and rising fast
6/8

But the other big story for the global oil demand plateau and peak by 2030 is Saudi Arabia's efforts to stop burning oil for power, in favour of gas and renewables
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There's much more in the 2025 IEA oil market report, take a look here:


8/8iea.org/reports/oil-ma…