Copernicus Day for May 2025 has arrived, a day for long-range weather fans around the world!
Let's take take a look at what the data is showing for the upcoming summer 🧵
Neutral conditions in the equatorial Pacific could adjust toward a La Niña-like direction later in 2025, in concert with a potential negative Indian Ocean Dipole.
Warmer than average seas are predicted in much of the Northern Hemisphere, bolstering summer heat.
Above average summer temperatures are favored in many areas, including the United States, western and central Europe and eastern Asia.
It's a day when long-range climate model data comes out, giving us clues as to what the next few months may hold.
Here's what it shows 🧵
The picture in the tropical Pacific, home to the oscillation that includes El Niño & La Niña, is complicated.
An El Niño Costero (coastal El Niño) is occurring near western South America as La Niña wanes in the central Pacific.
This tug-of-war will influence patterns worldwide.
Drier than average conditions may prevail across swaths of the western and central United States through early summer, with severe weather risks shifted farther east.
Big rainfall events are possible in northern South America and Australia as El Niño & La Niña battle.
The United States has been home to the most unusually cold air on the planet so far this year.
A desolate part of central South Dakota has been 11 degrees below average, making it Earth’s most unusually cold place in 2025 so far.
Here's why 🧵
The tropospheric polar vortex has been displaced to the south.
Strong high pressure near Alaska and Greenland contributed to above-average temperatures across the Arctic, displacing the region’s frigid air much farther south — over southern Canada and the United States.
The pattern of high latitude high pressure caused the jet stream to become loopier than normal.
The jet frequently took a northerly detour into the Arctic Circle.
There, it picked up freezing air and transported it south.
It's the Southern Patagonian Ice Field, where over 166 feet of snow falls annually. That's 15 stories or 2,000 inches.
I found someone who's been there 🧵
Southern Patagonian Ice Field 🌨️
“I can definitely confirm that the Southern Patagonia Ice Field is a snowy and windy place, and I would not be surprised if it is the snowiest place on the planet,” said Margit Schwikowski, professor emeritus from the University of Bern in Switzerland.
Schwikowski and a team of six researchers, including three Chilean glaciologists, visited the ice field in August 2006 to take ice cores from the Pio XI Glacier, the largest in the Southern Patagonian Ice Field.
“Although our work was finished after four days, we spent two weeks in tents up there. We could not get out because of snowfall and strong winds,” Schwikowski said.
“We took especially rigid tents, a lot of food and skis to be able to get out on our own if the helicopter could not fly. We prepared the GPS track of the escape route to Argentina,” recalled Schwikowski.
In other words, don’t try this at home. Getting to the snowiest place on the planet requires intricate planning, strong mountaineering skills, an escape route and much more.
It’s not about to become the next Instagram hot spot.
Photos: Theo Jenk and Beat Rufibach
What makes it so snowy 🏔️
“Patagonia is such a unique place,” said @meteodiego, a researcher at the Earth Sciences Department of the Barcelona Supercomputing Center. He is originally from Santiago, Chile.
He said that the storm track passes directly through the region and that precipitation occurs year round, but is highest during the winter months of June, July and August.
His research also found that the region had very high levels of annual precipitation, but noted that a lack of weather reporting stations in the region made it difficult to corroborate precipitation estimates.