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(((James Acton))) Profile picture
@james_acton32
Jun 17 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
The claim that Iran had 60 days to make a deal is disingenuous since the United States was hardly ready, and did not conduct, an intensive, detailed negotiation. (1/n) Image
For example, there were times when Iran was willing to talk but the United States wasn't (presumably because it needed more time to prepare).

reuters.com/world/middle-e…Image
For some time, the United States seemed to vacillate on whether it would be prepared to sign a deal that allowed any enrichment in Iran. (3/n)

thehill.com/homenews/admin…
There was also reporting that, early in the negotiations, the Iranians wanted to talk details but Witkoff didn't, preferring to start with general principles. (I can't find the sources right now, but would be grateful if anyone adds in a comment). (4/n)
I don't want to be naive here. It's also true that Iran was in no rush to reach a deal and has proved itself adept in the past at dragging out negotiations indefinitely.

However, that doesn't alter the fact the U.S was unprepared to meet the deadline that it imposed. (5/5)

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More from @james_acton32

(((James Acton))) Profile picture
Jun 16
🧵The stated goal of Israel’s military campaign is to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. With operations ongoing, it's too early to reach a conclusion.

But I can highlight outstanding questions that will determine whether Israel will achieve its nuclear goal. (1/n)
Let's focus on three areas:
👉Fordow
👉Enriched uranium stockpile
👉Centrifuge components

BLUF: As of now, key facilities, material, and equipment are--or are likely--intact.

CAVEAT: The situation is fluid and uncertain. (2/n)
FORDOW is an enrichment plant buried in a mountain. While there are reports of some strikes against the facility, IAEA DG @rafaelmgrossi reports this morning that no damage is visible. (3/n)

iaea.org/newscenter/sta…Image
Read 14 tweets
(((James Acton))) Profile picture
Sep 25, 2024
🧵Initial thoughts on Russia's new nuclear doctrine, based on a machine translation of Putin's comments. (I have not seen the doctrine yet; my assessment may change when I do).

BLUF: It's not tied as directly to the Ukraine war as others think. (1/n)

kremlin.ru/events/preside…
Here's the key passage (thanks, @ChatGPTapp).

(2/n) Image
@ChatGPTapp As has been reported, Putin is saying he might use nuclear weapons against a non-nuclear weapon state that attacked Russia in concert with a nuclear-weapon state.

This mirror U.S. declaratory policy until 2009 (I think), which contained a similar provision. (3/n)
Read 13 tweets
(((James Acton))) Profile picture
Aug 5, 2024
This thread is a transparent attempt by Colby to foreclose scrutiny of his behavior around the insurrection on Jan 6, 2021. I want to explain what he did and why it shouldn't be ignored.

(Like all my tweets, these are my personal views.)



(1/n)
My criticism of Colby is nothing to do with his conservative views. We were friends—good friends—for years. We regularly had lunch or dinner. I went to Rio for his wedding. He came to mine. Throughout that time, we disagreed a lot about policy—domestic and foreign—but...

(2/n)
… we discussed those disagreements in a good-faith, productive way. We found common ground on nuclear policy and wrote together. I read part of his book manuscript and he thanked me in his acknowledgments.

(3/n)


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Read 19 tweets
(((James Acton))) Profile picture
May 24, 2024
🧵Entanglement in action.

Ukraine has reportedly attacked the Russian early-warning radar at Armavir. This strike was a bad idea. It provided only limited military benefit to Ukraine and exacerbates nuclear risks.

It's time for the U.S. to act. (1/n)

The Armavir radar is part of Russia's "strategic" early warning system. It is designed to detect an incoming nuclear strike and enable Russia to launch its nuclear forces before they are destroyed. Image
However, such radars can also contribute to nonnuclear warfighting--not least by detecting nonnuclear ballistic missiles and enabling defenses. I assume that Ukraine hit this radar to help U.S.-supplied ATACMS penetrate Russian defenses. (3/n)
Read 21 tweets
(((James Acton))) Profile picture
Nov 8, 2023
At @CSIS @csisponi yesterday, Frank Miller engaged with my recent essay on targeting. In a collegial spirit, I'd like to respond to him here--he has mispresented me--and accept his offer to a public debate.

Link:

Here's the transcript. (1/n) csis.org/events/project…


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First, I do not claim or imply in my recent essays that changing U.S. targeting policy would induce Beijing or Moscow to make changes to theirs.

I do not believe that our making changes would induce them to do so. (2/n)

warontherocks.com/2023/11/two-my…
I believe the United States should adopt CMI targeting (Conventional Military forces and war-supporting Industry) because it would make us and our allies more secure, whether or not China or Russia changed their targeting policies (which, again, I don't think they would). (3/n)
Read 6 tweets
(((James Acton))) Profile picture
Jun 24, 2023
<THREAD>There's been evidence-free speculation that Prigozhin may try to seize a nuclear weapon or two. I think this fear is misplaced. That said, there is a nuclear risk associated with this insurrection--one that isn't yet being discussed. (1/n)
CAVEAT: The situation on the ground in Russia is clearly very fluid and unpredictable, and I'm certainly not going to try to predict what's going to happen. Here I aim to assess what we should worry about NOT how worried we should be. (2/n)
An armed insurrection in a nuclear-armed state is clearly disquieting (even if its current leader goes around invading his neighbors). But, for two reasons, I don't see Prigozhin (who probably isn't much better BTW) seeking a nuclear weapon. (3/n)
Read 15 tweets

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