Thread by @TSaukur

For India, navigating Russia-Ukraine war was a cakewalk compared to what lies ahead.

But the Israel-Iran war could become India's biggest geopolitical headache since the stakes are higher. Why is the 🇮🇱🇮🇷 war shaping up to be India’s biggest challenge? 🧵
#IranIsraelConflict

1️⃣ Let's start off with the Ukraine war. 🇮🇳 could firmly resist the pressure, it continued to strengthen ties with Russia, PM Modi visited Russia, signed MOUs, India-Russia trading in local currencies, India bought Russian oil at discounted rate, Trade grew rapidly (Tho 1 sided)

India continued to get S400, in 2024, signed a deal with Russia for advanced battle tank engines. Both the nations played a Key Role in the expansion of BRICS. Cooperation on Chennai Vladivostok port. At the same time, India is deepening ties with EU by concluding an FTA.

2️⃣ Coming to Israel-Iran war: This war has put India onto a tough position. This time, India's stakes are higher in both the nations. India has good equations with Israel & Iran. 1st, Iran serves as India’s conduit to Central Asia. India has invested billions in Iran’s Chabahar

Port to establish direct link with Central Asia. Central Asia is crucial for India's rare earth minerals, since 🇮🇳 doesn't share border with Central Asia, Chahbhar port acts as a gateway. Chahbhar helps India to connect to Afghanistan as well. India sent 20K tons of Humanitarian

Aid to Afghanistan via Chahbhar. From Chahbhar, there is a road which goes upto Zaranj in Afghanistan, which will give access to four major cities – Herat, Kandahar, Kabul and Mazar-e-Sharif. Chabahar is also part of the proposed multimodal transport route also known as the

International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). The Port has recorded a more than 82% growth in cargo handling. The number was at 12,24,345 tonnes & rose to 28,40,369 tonnes in FY 24. Now came down to 22,32,002 tonnes in FY 25. The war will jeopardize India's connectivity

Plans. The war also puts India's INSTC at higher risks. In addition, the Iran-Israel strikes will put India’s energy security and economy at risk. India is highly dependent on oil imports, with over 80% of its crude oil supply coming from the West Asia region.

Iran continues to prioritize it's relations with India over Pakistan. Despite being an Islamic nation, Iran does not maintain a strong relationship with Pakistan as it seeks to compete with China-Pakistan plans in the region.

India-Iran are also working on trading in Local

Currencies. India-Iran also signed on Seafarers pact. The move is aimed at smoothening the movement of seafarers from both the countries. Iran also announced on Visa Free policy for Indian tourists. Iran also Condemned the Pahalgam attack & understood India's need.

Both nations are working on a roadmap to invest in new projects.

Coming to Israel 🇮🇱- India-Israel share strong defence ties which indirectly helps in Intelligence cooperation as well. In 2022, Defense Ministers Benjamin Gantz and Rajnath Singh signed the India–Israel Vision on

Defense Cooperation, a 10-year roadmap to enhance collaboration in emerging technologies, marking 30 years of diplomatic relations. India-Israel have signed deals on the BARAK 8 surface to air missile. In 2024 India’s Navy Chief Admiral R Hari Kumar flagged off a Medium Altitude

Long Endurance (MALE) Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) called the Drishti-10 Starliner. The drone is an Indian-made version of Israel’s Elbit Systems. Israeli equipment has boosted India’s ability to gather intelligence, conduct surveillance, and carry out reconnaissance operations.

This has proven especially valuable along the disputed borders with Pakistan and China. For instance, the Indian army operates MALE Heron drones for extended surveillance.

Israeli equipment has also proved helpful in the Kashmir Valley, where for several decades, the Indian

army has tackled the insurgency. Here, the Indian army deploys Israeli sensors, Heron drones, hand-held thermal imaging devices, and night vision imaging equipment to check militant infiltration from Pakistan on the LOC & counter insurgency. India has also utilized Israeli arms

for its offensive campaigns. In February 2019, it used the Spice 2000 guided bombs in an aerial raid targeting a terrorist training camp at Balakot in Pakistan. Indian special forces use Israeli assault rifles such as Tavor, Galil, Negev machine guns and the B-300 man-portable

antitank weapon system. Israeli defense giants IAI, Elbit Systems, and Rafael Advanced Defense Systems have partnered with Indian companies Bharat Forge, Tech Mahindra, Adani Defence and Aerospace, and Tata Advanced Systems to manufacture advanced sub-systems and homeland

security systems. India utilizes the Derby and Python-5, both beyond visual range air-to-air missiles (BVRAM). The SPICE-2000 precision-guided bomb further refines strike accuracy, while the Popeye-1 air-to-surface missile (ASM) and the SkyStriker loitering munition provides

additional versatility in both offensive and defensive roles. Naval operations benefit from the ELM-2238 radar, while the EL/M-2052 fire control radar and the Litening infrared targeting pod further enhance target acquisition and engagement.

Coming to Trade side- India owns

Haifa Port (70% stake held by Adani). India is probably the only country which owns ports in 2 arch rivals nations (Iran's Chahbhar port & Israel's Haifa port). Haifa Port handles 20M tonnes of cargo annually. India is also a core stake holder of IMEC Corridor along with Israel.

Similar to INSTC for Central Asia connectivity, IMEC is the key for West Asia connectivity. 🇮🇳 has high stakes.

Just how Chahbhar aligns with INSTC, on similar lines, Israel's Haifa port aligns with India's interests in the IMEC Corridor.

Why 🇮🇳 invested in Haifa & Chahbhar?

India has taken bold steps to invest in both the nations in Port projects to compete with China. Chahbhar competes with China's Gwadar port & Haifa competes with China's Shanghai International Port Group. The Port investments made by India is a test case for India's ability to

invest, operate & maintain critical infrastructure. It's joined the race with China.

Today, due to the war- Israel is striking all key assets of Iran, which can hurt India's plans for connectivity in Iran, jeopardize INSTC, disruptions at Chahbhar port. Similarly, Iran

Struck Haifa city as well. India's investments in Iran & Israel lie on similar lines. For eg- High stakes in Port projects in both the nations, Trade Corridor (INSTC & IMEC) for West & Central Asia connectivity. 🇮🇳 also highly depends on Energy (80%), that's where strikes

are also taking place making India's plans on Supply Chains & defence more vulnerable in Middle East region.

🇮🇳 will find it challenging to maintain a balanced relationship with both countries during armed buildup.

Sources- The Diplomat, Economic times, New Indian Express.