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Jun 19 13 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1/ Poland's electoral commission has said that there were "major irregularities" in the second round of the recent presidential election, won narrowly by Karol Nawrocki. Votes appear to have been recorded wrongly, or transferred to the wrong candidate. ⬇️
2/ Nawrocki, a pro-Trump figure representing the right-wing PiS party, won by only 360,000 votes. The National Election Commission says there were "incidents that could have an impact on the outcome of the vote" requiring "an in-depth analysis of the reasons".
3/ It highlights "the occurrence of repetitive errors in the protocols of some district election commissions consisting in incorrect assignment of the number of votes cast for individual candidates" and has referred the matter to Poland's Supreme Court.
4/ Problems have been identified in 50 electoral regions, in which there were concerns that votes had been wrongly assigned. Most notably, in a district of Krakow known as a stronghold of the rival Civic Platform party, Nawrocki's vote increased by 500%. He won in a landslide.
5/ The vote for a neighbouring district, also a Civil Platform stronghold, was held in the same building. In this instance, Nawrocki's vote remained consistent with the first round and he lost by 63.84% to 36.16%. He won only 26% in another neighbouring district.
6/ Similar problems have been reported across Poland, where the increase in Nawrocki's results amounted to as much as 400% in some areas. This would require not only his own voters to stick with him, but for significant numbers of Civic Platform voters to have voted for him.
7/ The electoral commission says that the problem appears to have arisen in transferring the data from the paper count of ballots to the national electoral computer system. The data was entered by an operator who received it from the electoral district chairman.
8/ Usually only the chairman and operator were present for this, with the data transmitted verbally or in writing. The computer system worked alphabetically and always listed Nawrocki first for data entry, ahead of Civic Platform candidate Rafal Trzaskowski.
9/ However, the paper count in each district could list either Nawrocki or Trzaskowski first, depending on who had the highest number of votes. It's suspected that in districts where Trzaskowski won, his votes were erroneously entered for Nawrocki.
10/ To make matters worse, it's reported that nobody checked whether the data was entered into the system correctly, despite the entire electoral commission for each district signing off the results.
11/ It's unclear what will happen next. The Supreme Court's Control Chamber says it will check the results for 13 districts. A complicating factor is that the Control Chamber is comprised of so-called 'neo-judges' – PiS supporters installed irregularly to control the judiciary.
12/ During its time in office, PiS created quasi-judicial bodies such as the Control Chamber, stacked with its own supporters. European tribunals, the Supreme Court itself and the government say that the Control Chamber is not a valid court of law. /end

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More from @ChrisO_wiki

Jun 18
1/ Israeli operatives who have infiltrated Iran have reportedly been using unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) to attack Iranian sites with explosives. It's another echo of the unmanned systems that have been seen in Ukraine. ⬇️
2/ A video from Iran shows Iranian military personnel inspecting equipment in an Israeli "autonomous base" used to control the UGVs. The vehicles were reportedly used to make holes in Iranian defensive structures, through which explosive-laden UGVs were subsequently driven.
3/ Russia and Ukraine have both made extensive use of UGVs, employing them to carry supplies, evacuate casualties, and carry out attacks on enemy positions. As with drones, it seems that Israel has learned lessons from the Ukraine war. /end
Read 4 tweets
Jun 18
1/ Russian military recruiters are enlisting the elderly, alcoholics, drug addicts and the homeless into the army, apparently to meet recruitment quotas. Not surprisingly, the new recruits are proving problematic in training and on the battlefield. ⬇️
2/ A video shows a new recruit, likely in his late 60s, in a firing range literally unable to work out which way round he should hold his assault rifle. A frustrated instructor yells: “Look here, I’m here, look at me, put the assault rifle in combat mode, shoot there”.
3/ The instructor says despairingly: “In general, I don’t know what to teach these people.”

WIth many of Russia's young and healthy men having already perished in Ukraine, Russian military recruiters are now setting their sights lower.
Read 9 tweets
Jun 18
1/ Three years into the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a prominent Russian warblogger laments that the Russian people still don't understand what the war is about. He urges the Russian leadership to inspire the people, as with sufficient inspiration "they will go to Poland". ⬇️ Image
2/ Roman Alekhine writes:

"We do not have a description of victory. In the [Second World War], we fought to the death, until a clear victory, in which we clearly intended to "Drive a bullet into the forehead of the rotten fascist scum."
3/ "To knock together a strong coffin for the offspring of mankind." Then there was no "what if we come to an agreement." Everything is simple - a bullet in the forehead and into a strong coffin.
Read 8 tweets
Jun 17
1/ Iran's rapid military collapse is being blamed by Russian warbloggers on rampant corruption under the country's notionally Islamist regime. Everything is for sale like in "the late USSR", they say, which has allowed the Israelis to infiltrate Iran with ease. ⬇️ Image
2/ Dmitry Steshin writes:

"The West has found Iran's solar plexus and is hitting it precisely and methodically. Of course, it is being helped from within. Who? Why? I'll explain based on my personal impressions."
3/ "It is generally accepted that Iran is ruled by the 'ayatollah regime', it is solid, there are no cracks. This is both true and false. Iran, as it seemed to me, is a country torn apart by internal contradictions, like the late USSR. I lived there.
Read 31 tweets
Jun 16
1/ A single Russian brigade has lost more than 12,000 men – more than five times its authorised strength. Its soldiers say they are subjected to violence, abuse, torture and robbery by their own commanders, who throw them into bloody attacks where thousands die. ⬇️ Image
2/ The 15th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade is based in the Samara region, but recruits from across Russia. Personnel from at least 77 regions have been listed as missing or dead, with the largest number being from the Volga Federal District and the Astrakhan region.
3/ At least 12,689 soldiers from the 15th Brigade have been listed as missing or killed in social media posts. At least 7,436 were killed, and another 5,253 are reported to be missing. This contrasts with a normal peacetime establishment of around 2,000 personnel.
Read 29 tweets
Jun 15
1/ Russian warbloggers say that Russian army commanders are causing unnecessary problems for other units, and heavy casualties for their own men, by lying about their successes. This exposes the flanks of neighbouring units and causes men to be sent into unsupported assaults. ⬇️ Image
2/ The Russian army has had widespread problems with commanders falsely claiming to have captured objectives – a practice dubbed "taking on credit" – since the early days of the war in Ukraine.
3/ False reporting often takes the form of sending a few expendable men forward to plant a flag on a building in a Ukrainian-held settlement, so that a drone can video it for a report of a successful capture to be sent to HQ. This is termed a "photo fact".
Read 38 tweets

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