Thread by @iyad_elbaghdadi

Here's a big-picture geopolitical thread on Israel's war on Iran - its possibilities, impossibilities, dynamics, and delusions. My goal is to give you a full big-picture view in one place, which is why this is a long thread. If you prefer drip-fed updates, skip this thread.

Caveat: Most geopolitical analysis is cold and state-centric. This thread is rooted in collective liberation. Remember as you read: Israel's regime is genocidal. Iran's is a theocratic tyranny. If clear moral language makes you uncomfortable, scroll back to WSJ or CNN.

There are points where the thread touches on topics that deserve a deeper dive, or hints at arguments that require a fuller explanation. I've marked these with the door emoji. Where you see this:🚪, it means there's a door we can choose to walk into - later.

Let’s start here: This is Netanyahu’s war. A war of choice, launched with no coherent rationale or endgame. The initial excuse was Iran's nuclear program, despite no credible intel - not even Trump's - believing Iran was building a bomb.

Under international law, preemptive strikes are only legal if the threat is imminent and the response proportionate. Iran wasn't about to attack Israel, it was about to negotiate a deal with the US. Within hours, Israel's goal had shifted from "nukes" to "regime change".

Why now? Netanyahu's likely calculus:
- Block a US-Iran deal
- Save Netanyahu's ass politically
- Distract from intensifying genocide in Gaza
- Kill momentum for a 2SS
- Hit Iran while it's weakened

Iran *had* to respond. Any state would. Israel knew that too.

What exactly is Israel trying to achieve here? In a normal war, you make demands, threaten force, and escalate if they aren't met. What are Israel’s demands? What's the objective the Iranian regime could hypothetically surrender to?🚪

Let's try to make it make sense. Is Israel fighting until:
- Iran's nuclear program is gone
- Iran is "liberated" (regime change)
- The US joins the war
- Netanyahu declares "victory"
- Israel feels "safe"?

Take the "end Iran's nuclear program" aim🚪. Even senior Israeli intel officials admit this isn't possible by airstrikes alone. Iran's nuclear infrastructure is decentralized and domestically rooted: atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/iransour…

Israel's attacks can delay but not end Iran's nuclear program. Even Israeli experts now admit the attacks may have caused "months" of disruption, but nowhere near an end to the program. theguardian.com/world/2025/jun…

Worse, Israel's attacks strengthen the logic for Iran to pursue nukes. Reminder, even Trump's intel chief said Iran "is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Khamenei has not authorized the program he suspended in 2003."

Fyi: Israel *has* nukes, never signed the NPT, has no IAEA oversight, and allows no inspections. It claims Iran can't be allowed nukes because its regime is fanatical, but that logic collapses when actual fanatics run Israel. Their only consistent logic is: we can, you can't.🚪

So: If Israel knows it can't end the nuclear program, maybe that was never the real goal.

Maybe this is about something bigger: "Liberate Iran". Aerial regime change by force.

This is pure hubris: ahistorical, incoherent, dangerous. Let’s break it down.

There is no historical precedent for regime change by airstrikes alone. Zero. If you're serious, you need at least one of three things: a land invasion, an armed internal rebellion, or a coup from within. Especially against a regime as deeply institutional as Iran's.

None of the three exist:
- No coalition ready to mount a land invasion
- No armed rebellion strong enough to dislodge the IRGC
- No rival power center that can stage a coup inside this tightly institutional regime

"Airstrikes-only" regime change is a fantasy.

But even *if* Iran's regime collapsed under airstrikes, what follows wouldn't be freedom, it would be civil wars, separatism, militants, and a massive security vacuum nobody can fill. Massive waves of refugees.

Think Iraq, Syria, Libya, and Afghanistan *combined*.🚪

Iran:
- has 90 million people
- is larger than France, Spain, and Germany combined
- has a regime that's deeply embedded and ideological, with fanatically committed recruits across the region.

If the Iraq War opened the gates of hell, this would be the abyss.

I was part of the Arab Spring. I know the excitement at toppling tyrants, and the hell that follows when they burn the country, and the region's tyrants feed the fire. Syria, Libya, Yemen, Sudan.

No regime in this region (Israel included) wants a truly free & democratic Iran.

A democratic, free Iran is worth hoping for. But today's opposition is fractured. Some faces are visible abroad but have no rooted support base at home.

Regime collapse without a rooted alternative doesn't lead to transition. Just look elsewhere in the region to see.🚪

Iranians hate the regime, but they want their own future. They've risen before, with vision and courage. They know Netanyahu isn't their friend. They want Iran to be free, not bombed into collapse.

But let's flip the lens. If Iran's regime is the one absorbing the blows - how does it see this war? What's its calculus? What are its red lines, its tools, and its thresholds for escalation?

Before the war, the Iranian regime was seeking a deal: Keep its civilian nuclear program, get sanctions relief, normalize with the US. This wasn't a moral pivot, it was strategic self-interest (and likely still is).🚪

But if that window's closed, Iran has options. It could start hitting Israeli population centers hard. Israel has 1/10th Iran's population, and far less tolerance for civilian losses. And after Gaza, protests about civilian casualties would ring hollow.

But the biggest escalation isn't about Israel, but oil. Israel has hit Iranian energy infrastructure. The US hasn't (yet) "entered the war", but it's supplying the IDF. The US has lots of bases in the Gulf states. What else do Gulf states have? A third of the world's oil.

Iran has already reached out to the Gulf countries asking them to push Trump to de-escalate. This likely wasn't just a plea, but also a warning: You're in the blast radius too.

Iran's "nuke option" isn't nukes, it's shutting the Straits of Hormuz through which 30% of global oil (20% of LNG) pass. If it's shut, markets panic, insurers flee, supply chains seize up. Iranian proxies in the Red Sea have already shown what they can do.

The way Iran does war is fundamentally different from Israel's "shock-and-awe" style. It's MO is more patient, long-term, and attrition-based. The Houthi campaign is a good example: Starts with a trickle, sustained over time, becomes a running cost, blends into the background.🚪

Israel may cheer its "tactical successes", but for the Iranian regime, it doesn't need to score shock & awe strikes on Israel - although when it does, it celebrates. Rather, it needs to find a course of action it can sustain longer & cheaper than Israel can, and keep doing it.

But this requires the regime to maintain coherence.

So far, for once, it has a clean, coherent narrative, both domestically and internationally. "We were negotiating a deal with the US, we weren't seeking a nuclear weapon, and we were attacked, and we must defend our homeland".

One more card the Iranian regime holds: asymmetric terror. If its cities or leadership are hammered, the regime can let IRGC or proxy cells hit soft targets worldwide (embassies, tourism hubs, shipping lanes, etc). There's ample precedent for that, and there'll be ample anger.🚪

Let's go back to Israel now. What is Israel's escalatory ladder? Some questions:

How long can Israel sustain this fight without the US entering? It's already running low on interceptors. Its economy was strained even before the total airspace shutdown. Diplomatically, it hasn't come under intense pressure yet - but this may shift timesofisrael.com/israel-running…

Here's the thing: Israel has classically had a strong economy - and it *has* to. Its security is tied to its prosperity. This isn't true of Iran. Iran can be or become poor and survive, even fight, even fight well. But if Israel becomes poor, it dies.🚪

What is Israel's escalatory ladder, short of the US entering the war? Issuing "evacuation orders" for Tehran = "we're gonna destroy your cities (the "Dahiya doctrine"). Cause massive civilian suffering to pressure the enemy. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dahiya_do…

Besides the fact that it's a war crime (Israel never cared), and that Israel has cities too - there's another cost.

Israel spent years cultivating pro-Israel voices among anti-regime Iranians. Bombing their families can burn that investment fast.

What is Israel's endgame if the US doesn't enter the war? The answer is that there is none.

Like I said, Israeli strikes on their own can't end Iran's nuclear program, can't achieve regime change, and likely can't collapse it, and even if it does, it won't make it more secure.

All of this says that Netanyahu's game is fundamentally incoherent *unless* the US enters the war, because only the US can do what Israel alone cannot.

So let's look at that now.

US goals are fundamentally contradictory to Israel's here. Trump wanted/wants to make a deal with the Iranian regime. Israel started this war to *prevent* a deal. It openly says it wants the Iranian regime to not exist.

Everyone knows the US admin did *not* want this war. It wasn't prepared for it. Trump is trying to triangulate a coherent position, but hasn't yet found one that makes sense. He says "Nobody knows what I'm going to do" - and he's right, because that includes him.

Trump didn't want this war - but now he has to posture tough or look weak. Netanyahu played him. Maybe Trump thinks Israeli pressure can force Iran to soften its negotiating position - but Netanyahu wants no negotiations, he wants regime collapse. He cornered Trump into this.

Trump has approved strike plans but hasn't given a launch order yet. There's still no clear endgame. Fight until what? The nuclear program is gone? That brings massive, world-shaking escalation. Until the regime falls? Then who inherits the security vacuum?

Not to mention, if Trump enters the war, he'll be going against the advice of his own Gulf allies - who gave him investments, weapons deals, and private jets just months ago - and against his own MAGA base, who don't want new US wars in the Middle East.

The Gulf states aren't just oil fields - they have vibrant societies and fragile, brittle regimes. If the war reaches them, it's not just energy exports that are at risk. It's internal collapse, refugee waves, and dominoes falling. That’s why they’re urging Trump to de-escalate.

Russia & China don't want Iran's regime to fall. They prefer de-escalation, but if we're ever past that, a US quagmire is a strategic jackpot. A dragged-out war discredits US force, drains resources, deepens domestic fracture, and makes Ukraine & Taiwan easier for them.

None of this was planned by the US. Netanyahu wants Trump to commit to a costly war that's against US interests and strategy.

This is the hugest irony of all. Netanyahu is doing to the US what Hamas did to Iran on Oct 7: Drag it into a war it wasn't prepared for.

Reminder: Trump is not a Zionist (unlike Biden, or people like Mike Huckabee). Trump has no ideology. He's transactional and ego-driven. He doesn't care about Israel - he hardly cares about America. Trump cares about Trump. He only does what serves him.

Which is to say:
- Israel's war aims are incoherent unless the US can enter the war; but also
- The US can only enter the war if Trump agrees to act against his own interests

This isn't to say he won't, just that the picture is what it is.

Let's return to what might be the most important question in all this: What if Israel is fighting until it "feels safe"? What does that even mean?

The war that began on Oct 7, 2023 is Israel's last war. Not because Israel's victory (or defeat) is imminent. Not because after this war, Israel will find peace. But because Israel will be in a constant state of war from here on, as a very condition of its existence.

After Oct 7, Israel's psyche has decisively shifted.

Crush, dominate. Destroy threats "before they arise". "Judge capacity and not intent". Hope that dropping enough bombs will make you feel safe.

Hail your "tactical successes", and live in a mix of jubilation and terror.

Israel is a Jewish trauma script: "Never again be weak, never again be at someone's mercy. The world is a field of danger." Israel both weaponizes and triggers Jewish historical trauma. It needs the trauma script on loop for it to be coherent. Few Israelis can afford to see this.

Someone has to break this trauma script, or else this region will not see a moment's peace or security - it will only see bloodshed, devastation, and mounting hatred.

Collective liberation means that we fight for everyone, nobody gets left behind.

That was a long thread (not my longest!) - I know many will wonder about what I left out or didn't go into enough. You're welcome to ask questions or knock on one of the "doors"🚪 (or find new doors). Not sure I want to be online daily but smart questions can inspire me.

I haven't been online in a while, it's been a long period of personal hardship.

The big news: I'm working with my team at @Kawaakibi on a massive launch later this year: An independent media platform to shift the conversation on liberation and systems change

More soon

@Kawaakibi Until then: It was my birthday this week! And I just gave you this free situational briefing. Send me a gift by donating to my team, your donation will go towards our launch. And share this thread with someone, I'm sure they'll thank you
paypal.com/paypalme/kawaa…

@Kawaakibi We do not forget
We do not forgive
We do not stop fighting
We fight for everyone
Nobody gets left behind
We're not free until we're all free
We're not safe until we're all safe

@Kawaakibi Follow-up thread on Iran's nuclear program here, and why it's so hard to "end":

https://x.com/iyad_elbaghdadi/status/1936071825605194129