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Ron Butler Profile picture
@ronmortgageguy
Jun 19 • 6 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
AI Will Destroy Jobs: It's Coming Faster Than I Thought

As an old guy I am wrong person to comment on AI but I just encountered it in Mortgage Brokerage role that knocked me over

In the mortgage business we talk to people

Pure Digital Mortgages are just 4% of originations

2/
Only Licensed Mortgage Brokers can discuss rates, terms & mortgage products with the public but others can schedule calls, request documents, & deal with service calls

For the last year our company has been shown AI models to address these functions

They were OK but clumsy

3/
But this week BOOM: an AI Voice Assistant that's BETTER than people

- Perfect speaking voice
- Answers any question
- No lag on responding
- Gets a joke
- Funny when it should be
- Sounds confident & upbeat

I was blown away, its such a massive leap forward over the past

4/
And possibly more important NOT expensive, affordable to any small business

Again: it can't replace mortgage brokers, no Regulator will agree to license an AI entity for years to come

But it made me realize: some occupations are doomed

Anyone at a Call Center is done

5/
Both here in North America & overseas

8 months to 18 months & its all over

Almost simultaneously I see posts about all big Digital Companies laying off staff

Programming is going to AI & lay-offs are mounting

Should we all worry?

Likely we should

I know the old story

6/
Every major technology change creates as many NEW jobs as it eliminates OLD jobs

Loss of Agricultural jobs 150 years ago were replaced by Industrial jobs

Loss of Manufacturing Jobs were replaced by tech over the last 40 years

This time I am not so sure

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More from @ronmortgageguy

Ron Butler Profile picture
Jun 16
Single Family Real Estate: Heartbreak & Losses Or Will It Snap Back Quickly?

In Ontario & BC we understand the Condo Crash but what's happening with Detached, Semi's & Towns?

In some regions very bad news but what's the final outcome?

Let's be clear: other places are fine

2/
Quebec Real Estate good: sales up prices up, Alberta steady, some slight cracks on pricing emerging but nothing serious

Atlantic fine, Saskatchewan busy, Manitoba fine

But Ontario & BC: Ultra-Slow Sales volume & prices starting to sag

Old sins are coming to the surface

3/
The regions where home prices took a 25%, 30% or 40% price surge in 2021 & 2022 are clearly feeling the pressure today

The Fraser Valley in BC, the distant 905 at far reaches of the GTA, small cities in Ontario, Cottage Country

All of these increases were just nuts

4/
Read 6 tweets
Ron Butler Profile picture
Jun 10
First Time Home Buyers Getting Older & Guess What: Need Parents Help!

CMHC Reports confirm something we knew: in BC & Ontario, even older, higher income FTHBs often need Parental Help

The Feudal System is COMING BACK

The Medieval System of land rich families is reborn

2/
People talk about Boomer wealth transfer, it's happening before our eyes, even Gen X parents helping their kids with Down Payment Gifts

Or in a more dangerous move: Co-signers on Mortgages

Does Canada want to return to this Feudal System?

Doesn't matter, it's happening

3/
Some might say: No Big Deal Ron, parents should be able to help there kids buy a house

Okay, but consider this:

- 30 years ago gifts were a rare occurrence with no big money involved

- 30 years ago saving 5% down payment & qualifying for a mortgage was very achievable

4/
Read 6 tweets
Ron Butler Profile picture
Jun 9
Blow-Ups Happen! We Enter The Phase Where Homeowners Are Forced To Sell

Don't get me wrong: its not a wave

But our company would typically speak to borrowers who HAD to sell their homes based on inability to pay 3 or 4 times a year

There were of these 4 just in May

2/
It's strictly anecdotal but it's factual 4 homes that have to be sold

First or Second Mortgage in 30, 60 & in one case 90 day default

One not in arrears but scared enough of it happening soon, list the house now

Is there a common thread with these situations?

Employment

3/
One is a Real Estate Agent who hasn't done a house deal in 16 months

Another a small business owner who has seem his small import business evaporate

One Retired Couple who had done 2 separate Lines of Credit to provide down payment for kids

Their part time jobs are gone

4/
Read 5 tweets
Ron Butler Profile picture
May 30
Homeowners Filing For Bankruptcy: Something That Never Happened For 14 Years Is Now Normal

Since 2008 Homeowners represented less than 5% of Bankruptcies in Ontario, some years less than 2%

Homeowners did have financial problems but they solved them without a Trustee

2/
Homeowners didn't need assistance from an Insolvency Trustee due to the endless increase in the values of their homes

Getting behind on Credit Cards? - Get a Heloc
Big Debt Problems? - Refinance your House
Job Losses, Can't pay the Mortgage? Sell the house & have $350K cash

3/
Being a Homeowner in a decade of rapidly rising Real Estate Value was a solution for most personal financial problems, even when a Homeowner visited an Insolvency Trustee they were often told to refinance the house

That has all totally changed

Because Real Estate changed

4/
Read 6 tweets
Ron Butler Profile picture
May 28
Ontario Unemployment Problem Eminent Danger For The Canadian Economy

I know most Canadians hate to hear about problems in Ontario, people in other provinces are so tired of the Ontario as the center of the Universe theme

But 38.5% of all Canadians live in Ontario

2/
It's as if Texas or California had populations of 155M

And the wheels are starting to come off Ontario's economy

Things we covered before & a few new things

The collapse of the new home industry in Ontario has become big news

Sales of brand new construction SFD homes

3/
Fell well below 1000 last month, a number not seen in decades

Although some Purpose Built Rentals starts this year & some Commercial & Government Builds

Virtually No Hi-Rise Condo Projects for 15 months

The Construction Industry is on its knees

No signs of improvement

4/
Read 6 tweets
Ron Butler Profile picture
May 27
Wake Up One Morning & Your HELOC Is Gone: The Bank Took Your Limit To ZERO

This is starting to happen again, let me explain what this is

Many Homeowners have a Home Equity Line Of Credit

It goes by many names depending on the Bank; Homeline, Flexi-Line, STEP

All the same

2/
A Line of Credit secured by your home, their is a charge on the Title of your home or one huge Global Charge that encompasses both a Mortgage & a Line Of Credit

This HELOC has a limit, $10K to a $1M depending on the house value

The Borrower has access to the Line at will

3/
Up to the limit, take out as much as you want. You pay the interest on what you use

One day you wake up check your account on your phone & the HELOC you have had for years with a $200K Limit & a $30K balance (money you took out already) is SUDDENLY $30k not $200K

4/
Read 6 tweets

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