Just spent time digging into the Commerce Payments Protocol—and honestly, it’s kind of mind-blowing. Crypto rails have quietly solved most of the pain points that kept them out of mainstream commerce.
This isn’t a demo or a theory—it’s live, open-source, and processing real transactions. Crypto payments are here.
1/ Instant “yes/no” authorization. Merchants need a clean answer: should I ship this item?
On-chain, that’s trivial. The protocol gives an immediate Authorized response by calling authorize(), which either succeeds or reverts. No ambiguity; just deterministic, programmable logic.
2/ Irrevocable or network-guaranteed funds
With traditional cards, “authorization” places a hold—it’s a promise, not a payment. In Base’s USDC rail, the authorize() call immediately moves the exact amount into an escrow smart contract. Funds can only be released via capture, refund, or void—no one can claw it back.
It replaces the idea of a credit hold with a “debit hold”: the buyer’s balance is reduced instantly, but the merchant can’t spend it until capture. The process mirrors the card system’s two-step flow, just enforced by smart contracts instead of centralized rules.
If a buyer doesn’t have enough USDC, transferWithAuthorization() reverts with transfer amount exceeds balance. No partials. No overdrafts. Just a hard stop—exactly like card error code 51: insufficient funds or credit limit.
3/ Shopper protection, restructured
Unlike cards—where issuers offer buyer protections—crypto-native payments move that responsibility to the PSP or wallet layer.
The Base Commerce Protocol supports refund() calls, using either the merchant’s wallet balance or, if necessary, the PSP’s own risk reserves.
So protection still exists—it’s just no longer mandated by regulation. It’s contractual, balance-sheet backed.
Example:
Day 0: Buyer pays → USDC enters merchant escrow.
Day 10: Product doesn’t arrive → Buyer disputes → PSP calls refund() → Funds pulled from merchant.
Day 65: Merchant ghosted → Wallet empty → PSP uses risk pool.
Day 91: Refund window expired → On-chain refund no longer possible → PSP may offer credit, or buyer pursues legal recourse or a Circle freeze.
4/ Ubiquitous tooling and UX
One challenge remains: frictionless funding.
Today, stablecoin payments still require buyers to source USDC, hold it, and manage ETH for gas. That’s a UX burden—but one that’s solvable.
Smart wallet abstractions already can make this feel like a debit account. A credit-style overlay—built by $Coin, $Shop, or MoonPay’s new stablecoin card—could close the last usability gap, giving crypto rails parity with cards on the one thing they still lag: seamless funding at checkout.
+++
This challenged a lot of what I thought I knew about payments.
I’m genuinely impressed by the ecosystem that’s taken shape—much of it just in the last few months, as regulatory clarity started to emerge.
The Base Commerce Protocol offers a glimpse into a new payment architecture: one that is transparent, programmable, and structurally more efficient than what we’ve relied on for decades.
With steady progress in wallet UX, credit overlays, and fiat onramps, crypto for commerce might arrive much sooner than expected.
Never underestimate what an open-source, programmable system can unlock.
CPCA released Dec-22 and FY22 China NEV and PV sales.
In FY22, China’s domestic NEV sales reached 6.5M units (+98% of YoY). Penetration reached 28%.
China accounted for 60% of global NEV sales in 2022.
Local brands dominate the NEV market, taking 85%+ of the market share (vs. 50% for PV).
NEV market is fairly concentrated, with BYD taking 29% of the share (followed by Wuling 10% and TSLA 7%). The PV market is more fragmented, with Top 3 OEMs (VW, Toyota, Honda) taking 25%
Since 1Q 2021 (BYD's market share bottomed due to competition), BYD's market share has increased from 12% (1Q21) to 32% (4Q22).
TSLA's market share (for domestic retail sales) dropped from 12% (FY20) to 7% (FY22)
Contrarian view: China’s policy setting is an open book. Given its top-down nature, you basically get "free investment advice".
The Central Economic Work Conference is super insightful as it sets the tone for where the economy is heading.
Below are priorities set by CEWC 2022:
(For 2023)
- [No.1] Restoring and expanding domestic consumption
- “Platform Enterprises” (e.g. BABA) will be supported to “fully display their capabilities”
- Supports Property, EV, Elderly Living
- Suports private sectors; pro foreign investors
VERY Pro-market. Two highlights:
1/ Putting consumption as No.1 has far-reaching implications
Over the past 8 years, this is the FIRST time “demand/consumption” replaced “supply-side reform” as the focus.
After being depressed for 3 years, China (consumption) will take over US as the world’s growth engine.
TSLA is positioned to be an outsized beneficiary of IRA (boosts both demand & margin)
Impact on EPS:
$0.4/sh. from manufacturing credit
$0.5/sh. from sales credit should TSLA choose to raise prices. Even if they don't, it could maintain prices despite cost deflation in FY23.
Sales Credit (to consumer)
~70% of its US sales will qualify for the $7,500 sales credit, with another 15% likely quality for $3,750.
This would give TSLA a lot of levers to pull even in a recessionary environment - vehicles are effectively cheaper, plus input cost deflation
Manufacturing Credit (to TSLA)
All the models (other than Model 3 RWD) will receive the full $45/kWh credit
$0.4/sh. EPS benefit, assuming 1) TSLA shares the $35/kWh cell manufacturing credit with Panasonic 50/50, and 2) $10/kWh realized as a direct tax credit to TSLA
Crazy moves this week on China stocks probably mark the beginning of deglobalization in the financial market.
- (-30%) / +30% round-trip in 5 days
- No fundamental news (see below, very interesting dynamic around the delisting news)
- Overnight rebound, mostly driven by local $
- How the de-listing news got circulated was VERY odd...
The 5 names first appeared on SEC website on 3/8, but it wasn't until 3/10 when people "found it".
One sellside found it and circulated it -> HK HF community reacted overnight -> (-30%)
Classic panic selldown.
- How the market reacted was also abnormal...
De-listing concern is nothing new.
Most ADRs already have HK dual-listings.
The HK-listed names (e.g. Meituan) had nothing to do with it, but got sold nonetheless.
EM Asia, with low credit penetration(<5% Pop. has credit cards), is naturally a very attractive market for BNPL
What’s interesting is the business model played out in a VERY different way vs. RoW
Case study: % of Rev from Merchants: Kredivo (<10%) vs global peers (80%+)
When a BNPL platform earns the bulk of rev from customers, it is essentially a credit card!
Net trx margin is double the level of global peers (5%+ vs. 1.5-2.2%):
- Higher gross rev (consumers pay more)
- Cheaper repayments: ACH-based payment rails vs. linked cards w/ high MDR
Why charging consumers not merchants:
- Close to 0 MDR
- Aggressive pricing of e-wallets + GPN/ regulations pushing to cap trx fees
- Merchants are "spoiled"
- Consumers are credit-starved (no credit bureaus/high % of temp workers) & hence willing to pay