Thread by @Justinhead1982

Something doesn't make sense about Iran's use of proxies in Gaza, Lebanon and Yemen to attack Israel on October 7th 2023🧵

Iran has been trying to avoid a direct war with Israel since Oct 2023 so what did Iran stand to gain from coordinating it's proxies to attack Israel?

1/20

Was it for Russia's benefit? Russia is regarded as the main benefactor from the Hamas attack on Israel in Oct, 2023. Hezbollah & the Houthis also attacked Israel in a limited manner.

"For Russia's benefit" doesn't fully explain why Iran risked its own security though.

2/20

Hamas in Gaza didn't gain from the Oct 7th attacks. Their leadership has been eliminated and Gaza lies in ruins. Hezbollah in Lebanon was neutralized and their leader, Nasrallah, eliminated so no benefit for them either. Only the Houthis in Yemen survive largely intact!

3/20

Israel began a full-scale military strike against Iran, Operation Rising Lion, on June 13, 2025. It's still too early to tell the outcome but so far it seems that the Iran regime has fared much worse than Israel. The Iran regime may even be at risk of collapse.

4/20

The important point we should note is that Iran seems to have been trying to avoid direct military conflict with Israel in the short term at least. It's at an immediate disadvantage because it doesn't possess the nuclear weapons which Israel is reported to have.

5/20

So if Iran was trying to avoid direct military conflict with Israel in the short to medium term then why did it allow its proxies in Gaza, Lebanon & Yemen attack Israel, thereby bringing the wrath of Israel upon itself? Iran is an ally of Russia but not a proxy state!

6/20

Iran must have seen some benefit in such a risky proxy war with Israel. What might that benefit have been?

I think the answer might lie in the nuclear weapons which were missing from Iran regime's arsenal. Let's explore Iran's nuclear program.

7/20

Firstly, let's ask ourselves did Iran really have a nuclear program? We've been fooled once before in the West by Iraq's non-existent weapons of mass destruction program. We should avoid the mistake of falling for such a falsehood a second time and be more critical.

8/20

The IAEA Board of Governors report from 8th Nov, 2011, confirmed that Iran had engaged in a structured nuclear weapons program prior to the end of 2003.

The U.S. National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) concluded in 2007 that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in late 2003.

9/20

Iran continued to enrich Uranium and by 2015 is reported to have reached 19.75% Uranium-235 enrichment.

20% is recognized internationally, including by the IAEA, as a key proliferation marker - a warning that a country may be trying to produce nuclear weapons.

10/20

In response, Iran signed the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with the US, UK, France, Russia, China & Germany which limited enrichment to 3.67% Uranium-235 and allowed IAEA monitoring of Iran's nuclear facilities.

Trump withdrew the US from JCPOA in 2018.

11/20

Between April 2021 and May 2025, the IAEA reported that Iran has enriched Uranium to 60% Uranium-235. The only use for 60% Uranium-235 enrichment is a nuclear weapon.

On 12 June 2025 the IAEA declared Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations.

12/20

For an efficient uranium nuclear weapon, it needs to be enriched to 90% uranium-235. To move from 60% enrichment to 90% enrichment is considered to be the easiest part of the enrichment process - taking just a few days (a process commonly referred to as "breaking out").

13/20

The Times reports an Institute for Science and International Security assessment:

“Breaking out in both Fordow and the Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant, the two facilities together could produce enough weapons grade uranium for 11 nuclear weapons in the first month"

14/20

The Times also quotes the IDF - that Iran was “working to secretly develop all components needed for developing a nuclear weapon”.

The "components" refer to the remaining steps to turn 90% enriched uranium into a bomb - speculative estimates indicate Iran needing months.

15/20

If Iran pursued the final phases in the development of a nuclear bomb then it knew the world would be watching closely. Until Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Everyone was distracted except Israel. Iran would have to distract the Israelis during the "breaking out" phase.

16/20

Is this the benefit that Iran gained from Hamas, Hezbollah & the Houthis attacking Israel on 7th Oct 2023? A potential window of opportunity to complete the "breaking out" phase in the development of their nuclear weapon while was Israel bogged down fighting proxies?

17/20

Contradicting the Israelis, the Times quotes the US administration as saying: “The intelligence community continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon & Supreme Leader Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program that he suspended in 2003”.

18/20

That contradiction might make sense when you realize that the Times were quoting Tulsi Gabbard - of Vatnik Soup fame.

Would Tulsi lie while serving as the US Director of National Intelligence? It seems either she or the Israelis are lying.

19/20

https://x.com/P_Kallioniemi/status/1661000154135273473

Trump sided with the Israelis. He is quoted by the Times: “I don’t care what she (Tulsi) said, I think they (Iran) were very close to having them”.

It would be beneficial for Iran to have an asset heading US intelligence during their "breaking out" phase wouldn't it.

20/20