Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 Profile picture
Jun 20 21 tweets 6 min read Read on X
The thing about the conservatives opposed to selling Federal lands (e.g. I noticed @L0m3z ), is that they clearly have not actually read @BasedMikeLee 's actual bill. Massive failure of literacy on the part of the based right.

So let's look at the bill!
First, what kind of land can be sold?

This turns out to be complicated. The answer is basically Bureau of Land Management Land or Forest Service Land (with exceptions). So what kind of land CANNOT be sold? Image
There's a few more items cut off here but you get the idea. If land has ANY kind of ecological or recreational protected status, it remains totally protected.
Okay, but still, a ton of BLM/NFS land is used for hiking, grazing, or just general enjoyment! Nobody wants all that land sold! Here in KY, I love the Daniel Boone National Forest!

Okay, so let's talk about ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS!
First of all, the land sale rule only applies to the small number of states where the Federal government has truly massive landholdings. In these states the Federal government generally owns like 40%+ of the land. Washington is a bit of an exception, maybe it should be excluded. Image
Second, sale cannot violate existing rights. So if somebody already has legal rights to use the land, it can't be sold as long as those rights exist. Image
(That matters for some grazing/mining/other commercial and recreational use cases)
Still, that leaves TONS of land up for sale! Nobody would support auctioning off all the beautiful western lands!

Aha, yes, but sales are limited at 0.75% of the land.

Yes folks, we are talking about selling 0.5-0.75% of these lands.

Not 50%.

Not 5%.

***0.5%***Image
BUT STILL!!!!

You can imagine that if it was just an open sale that maybe rich people would buy up the cool scenic spots and wreck the landscape for the rest of us!

But there are moooooore safeguards and restrictions! Let's get to those!
So, next restriction:

the BLMS/NFS doesn't just get to choose what to sell! Land has to be nominated, in particular by state and local governments. So this isn't just "the BLM secretary sells off the land he wants to get rid of." Lower-level governments nominate for sale!Image
Private buyers CAN nominate of course, but there's still a consultation requirement for EVERY LEVEL OF GOVERNMENT. If you're familiar with US government consultation rules then you realize there's no way this produces a massive wave of sales. Image
Next, again, maybe you worry this will STILL lead to sale of pristine lands!

lol, no. See, for a sale to occur, you have to justify how it will address local housing supply needs.

Which means you can ONLY nominate lands already close to cities and existing roads.Image
Land far from existing infrastructure cannot logically meet housing needs, so couldn't pass the consultation and review process. We are talking here about Federal lands already adjacent to existing housing developments!!
In case you didn't already get it, here it's spelled out even more clearly: Image
And note, that state and local governments actually have right of first refusal! I suspect a lot of the sales will actually be transfers to state and local governments, not private buyers. Image
"But big developers will buy it all up." NO, WRONG. Image
Image
Okay, so what we've found here is what @BasedMikeLee @SenMikeLee actually proposes to do is sell:
1) 0.5%
2) of land without designated ecological or recreational value
3) without other legally contracted use
4) to small and mid-sized buyers or local governments
5) with approval by those governments
6) for residential purposes
7) in supply constrained areas
8) which are already close to roads and sewers

THIS POSES ZERO RISK TO THE BEAUTIFUL VAST EMPTY LANDSCAPES OF THE WEST. NONE AT ALL.
CAN WE FIND SOME OF THESE TRACTS?

We are looking for land which is 1) close to a road 2) close to other development 3) close to a city 4) flat 5) in a state that might actually approve the sale.

Let's go with Utah since Lee is from Utah so I wager Utah would sell. Again, we need FLAT land near a ROAD and CITY.
Here's a map of land *theoretically* available for sale but remember kids, these lands aren't actually all for sale. Those are lands which might theoretically be available for nomination, unless they have other by-right uses (many do). Image
It looks like there's probably land around Gunnison close to the city. Let's look there. There's basically no plausible candidate lands around Salt Lake City. Image
Here's streetview of the land around Fayette. A few things to notice. 1) It's already in use as rangeland. 2) This is clearly not land of enormous ecological value. 3) There are already houses right by it! Image
Image

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More from @lymanstoneky

Jul 21
Are you online? Then you've probably seen the takes: rich men should just marry a pretty, submissive Applebee's waitress. There's a whole genre of tweet that seems to fantasize about highly available food service workers.

I decided, at my peril, to take it seriously and test it
Who is right? The online Waffle House Fantasists, or @CartoonsHateHer 's pro-girlboss takes?

In today's post at @FamStudies , I argue.... kind of neither! Image
To start with, credit where it's due: the pro-girlboss take from @CartoonsHateHer stands on a solid foundation of decades of work on assortative mating, which I replicate. The richer you are, the more you assortatively you mate!Image
Read 16 tweets
Jul 16
SO this actually isn't what's going on.

What's going on is way more interesting!

UNIQLO is vastly further up the retail foodchain in the US than it is in Asia.

KFC and McDonalds are way fancier in Asia than America.

Why?

Because the export versions are always the best versions.
Exporting intrinsically creates costs: transport, transactions, often tariffs. As a result, exporting is rather challenging for most firms, which is why most firms do not export products.

Firms that do export products are entering a larger, more competitive space, so have to compete harder.
And to justify the cost of export, they end up having to move upmarket vs. their home market product. It's rare that the export-version is worse than the domestic-version.

It really is true that foreign McDonald's is better!

You can get respectable Macanese egg tarts at KFC-Hong Kong!
Read 7 tweets
Jun 27
The best historical analog for the US is not, in fact, the late Roman Empire.

It is the 18th century Qing Dynasty.

Interesting times may yet be ahead of us.
Society undefeated in war with an incredible reputation containing a massive share of world GDP and a huge leading advantage in technology and population originally ruled by a cadre of highly capable settler-militarist leaders ultimately brought down by the ability of technological upstarts abroad to bleed it of its wealth, hook its people on drugs, and exploit idiotic internal divisions to pick it apart. Plus a bunch of corruption, weird cults of personality, and just weird cults along the way.
I think on a basic level "America is the 18th century Qing Dynasty" is actually China's theory of the matter as well, but they're realizing that they actually are not quite the late 18th century British Empire. They're racing to get there but may not make it, and America is not quite as internally dysfunctional as the latter Qing.
Read 4 tweets
Jun 25
It's a mystery what's happening here! Such a mystery! Science has no answer for why dog deaths have risen 240% since 2017! Image
My prior on trend breaks like this is the same as @cremieuxrecueil : they're usually due to a change in data generation.

But in this case it's not. The ICD code rules did not change. The reporting system did not change.

And other animal deaths didn't change as much:Image
It's pretty clear what happened here!

Pit bulls! Image
Read 32 tweets
Jun 20
I think it would be great to have the BLM+NFS produce a GIS map that shades out all the lands which are 1) outside the states of eligibility 2) covered under wilderness protection rules, 3) covered under ongoing rights rules, 4) not buildable, 5) excessively remote

But in practice, the reasons against this are:
1) The point of the nomination-and-consultation process is to leave discretion to states and localities! That's literally the point! DC deciding which lands are right for disposal would defeat the point of the policy!
2) Rule changes for federal lands are implemented routinely via statute, federal land sales do already occur (public purpose rules, etc), changes in land statuses do occur (upgrades of NPS lands, etc), and AFAIK none of these have ever been paired with an expectation that a Senator's office should hire an ArcGIS team to work up an interactive parcel-level map of half of the land area of the United States

It's actually plenty to just have the statute say what the rules are!
"Point at the map exactly what's for sale."

Nothing. Literally nothing. This law establishes zero acres for sale.

It mandates the BLM and NFS to find acreage which fits the rules stipulated.

Now, a totally fair critique is: "What if they can't find enough acreage to fit the rules stipulated?"

And I think that's definitely a weak point in the drafting! I hope they fix it in conference!

In practice I don't think it will be an issue.
Now, I am sure that as soon as BLM/NFS do nominate lands for sale, some enterprising ArcGIS wizard will work up a map, and doubtless there will be some bird or lizard or something on some of the land for people to get angry about. And that's fine! Then you can lobby your state/local government to push back!
Read 4 tweets
Jun 17
Nice work highlighting a cool study showing a Gene-Environment interaction!

Kids with "bad genes" for schooling who have the "good luck" to be born in a rich household do just fine!

Unless the parents divorce, in which case they regress to genetic expectation.
Paper abstract. Image
Image
Read 9 tweets

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