The thing about the conservatives opposed to selling Federal lands (e.g. I noticed @L0m3z ), is that they clearly have not actually read @BasedMikeLee 's actual bill. Massive failure of literacy on the part of the based right.
So let's look at the bill!
First, what kind of land can be sold?
This turns out to be complicated. The answer is basically Bureau of Land Management Land or Forest Service Land (with exceptions). So what kind of land CANNOT be sold?
There's a few more items cut off here but you get the idea. If land has ANY kind of ecological or recreational protected status, it remains totally protected.
Okay, but still, a ton of BLM/NFS land is used for hiking, grazing, or just general enjoyment! Nobody wants all that land sold! Here in KY, I love the Daniel Boone National Forest!
Okay, so let's talk about ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS!
First of all, the land sale rule only applies to the small number of states where the Federal government has truly massive landholdings. In these states the Federal government generally owns like 40%+ of the land. Washington is a bit of an exception, maybe it should be excluded.
Second, sale cannot violate existing rights. So if somebody already has legal rights to use the land, it can't be sold as long as those rights exist.
(That matters for some grazing/mining/other commercial and recreational use cases)
Still, that leaves TONS of land up for sale! Nobody would support auctioning off all the beautiful western lands!
Aha, yes, but sales are limited at 0.75% of the land.
Yes folks, we are talking about selling 0.5-0.75% of these lands.
Not 50%.
Not 5%.
***0.5%***
BUT STILL!!!!
You can imagine that if it was just an open sale that maybe rich people would buy up the cool scenic spots and wreck the landscape for the rest of us!
But there are moooooore safeguards and restrictions! Let's get to those!
So, next restriction:
the BLMS/NFS doesn't just get to choose what to sell! Land has to be nominated, in particular by state and local governments. So this isn't just "the BLM secretary sells off the land he wants to get rid of." Lower-level governments nominate for sale!
Private buyers CAN nominate of course, but there's still a consultation requirement for EVERY LEVEL OF GOVERNMENT. If you're familiar with US government consultation rules then you realize there's no way this produces a massive wave of sales.
Next, again, maybe you worry this will STILL lead to sale of pristine lands!
lol, no. See, for a sale to occur, you have to justify how it will address local housing supply needs.
Which means you can ONLY nominate lands already close to cities and existing roads.
Land far from existing infrastructure cannot logically meet housing needs, so couldn't pass the consultation and review process. We are talking here about Federal lands already adjacent to existing housing developments!!
In case you didn't already get it, here it's spelled out even more clearly:
And note, that state and local governments actually have right of first refusal! I suspect a lot of the sales will actually be transfers to state and local governments, not private buyers.
"But big developers will buy it all up." NO, WRONG.
Okay, so what we've found here is what @BasedMikeLee @SenMikeLee actually proposes to do is sell: 1) 0.5% 2) of land without designated ecological or recreational value 3) without other legally contracted use 4) to small and mid-sized buyers or local governments 5) with approval by those governments 6) for residential purposes 7) in supply constrained areas 8) which are already close to roads and sewers
THIS POSES ZERO RISK TO THE BEAUTIFUL VAST EMPTY LANDSCAPES OF THE WEST. NONE AT ALL.
CAN WE FIND SOME OF THESE TRACTS?
We are looking for land which is 1) close to a road 2) close to other development 3) close to a city 4) flat 5) in a state that might actually approve the sale.
Let's go with Utah since Lee is from Utah so I wager Utah would sell. Again, we need FLAT land near a ROAD and CITY.
Here's a map of land *theoretically* available for sale but remember kids, these lands aren't actually all for sale. Those are lands which might theoretically be available for nomination, unless they have other by-right uses (many do).
It looks like there's probably land around Gunnison close to the city. Let's look there. There's basically no plausible candidate lands around Salt Lake City.
Here's streetview of the land around Fayette. A few things to notice. 1) It's already in use as rangeland. 2) This is clearly not land of enormous ecological value. 3) There are already houses right by it!
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okay, i see what @DrEmmaZang is arguing, but i think this is not a case of some kind of clever problem design but just a lexical problem.
the problem clearly asks what the ratio will "eventually" become. that is, towards what number is it converging. and it is converging to 0.5, asymptotically. hence the 0.5 answer everyone is giving. the question is literally asking the asymptote.
the correct answer to "what will eventually happen to the fraction of girls" is "it will trend towards 0.5"
now, at any given time, it can be above or below 0.5. @DrEmmaZang seems to believe (and FWIW Grok agrees) that it will always asymptotically converge from above, so any "real" society with these rules will be >0.5
but i trivially falsified this. across a bunch of simulations of n=500,000, much bigger than any "primitive" society we might imagine from the question prompt, i had tons of cases where the realized proportion was <0.5. i think the average of the simulations was probably around 0.5002 or something-- but even at numbers much bigger than is plausible for the question text, the simple fact is that you can't even guarantee convergence from above. so the answer "the share of girls will be somewhere asymptotically above 0.5" is not correct; it's easy to generate simulations where this isn't the case.
FWIW, i've literally seen a version of this problem (tho for boys instead of girls) in demo homework, and the correct answer was indeed 0.5
so I think what's going on here is 1) @DrEmmaZang misread the question and didn't notice it's actually asking about the asymptote ("eventually...") and 2) given the "primitive society" part the notion that we should assume large numbers apply isn't even correct to begin with
the correct answer is clearly "it will generally be about 0.5 girls with an asymptote at 0.5." the fact that the expected value at any specific finite number may be 0.500001 is irrelevant since, for any finite number in a primitive society, the variance will be comparatively enormous.
for reference, here's 30 simulations of 100k families. you can see that there are plenty under 0.5. for the 30 100k simulations the average is actually 0.500034, which is below the expected approximation of 0.508. nor was it even converging anywhere close to 0.508 actually.
Me and @bobbyfijan have argued that to get more families in America, you need family-friendly housing.
Today at @FamStudies , I show further evidence: first, from a new study showing how house size shapes fertility; second, in the YIMBY case study of the Chicago Loop.
A new study uses data on movers and fertility to estimate how housing costs and home sizes influence fertility. The takeaway is: they both matter!
This is what we've argued at IFS: YIMBYs tend to be laser-focused on boosting supply to reduce cost, while ignoring the size issue.
What's striking is the new study shows that although "YIMBY for family-friendly units" actually reduces prices by less than "YIMBY for small apartments," it actually increases fertility by twice as much.
A few years ago I was chewing on a graphs like these ones.
Apartment-dwelling is rising over time. But the evidence suggests that apartment-life is not great for family formation. It's hard to add SFH given land constraints, commute times, etc. So what to do about housing? 1/🧵
The first and most obvious step is just: remove any obstacles that do exist for more dense, young-family-friendly SFH. We wrote a big report on that topic at @FamStudies back in March. We tackled affordability, how to get more dense starter-home neighborhoods, crime, etc.
But as I was chewing on this topic back in early 2024, I had a chance to meet @bobbyfijan at an event organized by Steve Teles supported by @Arnold_Ventures about housing. We realized that we had a common interest: solving the "family apartment problem."
Are you online? Then you've probably seen the takes: rich men should just marry a pretty, submissive Applebee's waitress. There's a whole genre of tweet that seems to fantasize about highly available food service workers.
I decided, at my peril, to take it seriously and test it
Who is right? The online Waffle House Fantasists, or @CartoonsHateHer 's pro-girlboss takes?
In today's post at @FamStudies , I argue.... kind of neither!
To start with, credit where it's due: the pro-girlboss take from @CartoonsHateHer stands on a solid foundation of decades of work on assortative mating, which I replicate. The richer you are, the more you assortatively you mate!
UNIQLO is vastly further up the retail foodchain in the US than it is in Asia.
KFC and McDonalds are way fancier in Asia than America.
Why?
Because the export versions are always the best versions.
Exporting intrinsically creates costs: transport, transactions, often tariffs. As a result, exporting is rather challenging for most firms, which is why most firms do not export products.
Firms that do export products are entering a larger, more competitive space, so have to compete harder.
And to justify the cost of export, they end up having to move upmarket vs. their home market product. It's rare that the export-version is worse than the domestic-version.
It really is true that foreign McDonald's is better!
You can get respectable Macanese egg tarts at KFC-Hong Kong!