Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 Profile picture
Jun 20 21 tweets 6 min read Read on X
The thing about the conservatives opposed to selling Federal lands (e.g. I noticed @L0m3z ), is that they clearly have not actually read @BasedMikeLee 's actual bill. Massive failure of literacy on the part of the based right.

So let's look at the bill!
First, what kind of land can be sold?

This turns out to be complicated. The answer is basically Bureau of Land Management Land or Forest Service Land (with exceptions). So what kind of land CANNOT be sold? Image
There's a few more items cut off here but you get the idea. If land has ANY kind of ecological or recreational protected status, it remains totally protected.
Okay, but still, a ton of BLM/NFS land is used for hiking, grazing, or just general enjoyment! Nobody wants all that land sold! Here in KY, I love the Daniel Boone National Forest!

Okay, so let's talk about ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS!
First of all, the land sale rule only applies to the small number of states where the Federal government has truly massive landholdings. In these states the Federal government generally owns like 40%+ of the land. Washington is a bit of an exception, maybe it should be excluded. Image
Second, sale cannot violate existing rights. So if somebody already has legal rights to use the land, it can't be sold as long as those rights exist. Image
(That matters for some grazing/mining/other commercial and recreational use cases)
Still, that leaves TONS of land up for sale! Nobody would support auctioning off all the beautiful western lands!

Aha, yes, but sales are limited at 0.75% of the land.

Yes folks, we are talking about selling 0.5-0.75% of these lands.

Not 50%.

Not 5%.

***0.5%***Image
BUT STILL!!!!

You can imagine that if it was just an open sale that maybe rich people would buy up the cool scenic spots and wreck the landscape for the rest of us!

But there are moooooore safeguards and restrictions! Let's get to those!
So, next restriction:

the BLMS/NFS doesn't just get to choose what to sell! Land has to be nominated, in particular by state and local governments. So this isn't just "the BLM secretary sells off the land he wants to get rid of." Lower-level governments nominate for sale!Image
Private buyers CAN nominate of course, but there's still a consultation requirement for EVERY LEVEL OF GOVERNMENT. If you're familiar with US government consultation rules then you realize there's no way this produces a massive wave of sales. Image
Next, again, maybe you worry this will STILL lead to sale of pristine lands!

lol, no. See, for a sale to occur, you have to justify how it will address local housing supply needs.

Which means you can ONLY nominate lands already close to cities and existing roads.Image
Land far from existing infrastructure cannot logically meet housing needs, so couldn't pass the consultation and review process. We are talking here about Federal lands already adjacent to existing housing developments!!
In case you didn't already get it, here it's spelled out even more clearly: Image
And note, that state and local governments actually have right of first refusal! I suspect a lot of the sales will actually be transfers to state and local governments, not private buyers. Image
"But big developers will buy it all up." NO, WRONG. Image
Image
Okay, so what we've found here is what @BasedMikeLee @SenMikeLee actually proposes to do is sell:
1) 0.5%
2) of land without designated ecological or recreational value
3) without other legally contracted use
4) to small and mid-sized buyers or local governments
5) with approval by those governments
6) for residential purposes
7) in supply constrained areas
8) which are already close to roads and sewers

THIS POSES ZERO RISK TO THE BEAUTIFUL VAST EMPTY LANDSCAPES OF THE WEST. NONE AT ALL.
CAN WE FIND SOME OF THESE TRACTS?

We are looking for land which is 1) close to a road 2) close to other development 3) close to a city 4) flat 5) in a state that might actually approve the sale.

Let's go with Utah since Lee is from Utah so I wager Utah would sell. Again, we need FLAT land near a ROAD and CITY.
Here's a map of land *theoretically* available for sale but remember kids, these lands aren't actually all for sale. Those are lands which might theoretically be available for nomination, unless they have other by-right uses (many do). Image
It looks like there's probably land around Gunnison close to the city. Let's look there. There's basically no plausible candidate lands around Salt Lake City. Image
Here's streetview of the land around Fayette. A few things to notice. 1) It's already in use as rangeland. 2) This is clearly not land of enormous ecological value. 3) There are already houses right by it! Image
Image

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More from @lymanstoneky

Jun 20
I think it would be great to have the BLM+NFS produce a GIS map that shades out all the lands which are 1) outside the states of eligibility 2) covered under wilderness protection rules, 3) covered under ongoing rights rules, 4) not buildable, 5) excessively remote

But in practice, the reasons against this are:
1) The point of the nomination-and-consultation process is to leave discretion to states and localities! That's literally the point! DC deciding which lands are right for disposal would defeat the point of the policy!
2) Rule changes for federal lands are implemented routinely via statute, federal land sales do already occur (public purpose rules, etc), changes in land statuses do occur (upgrades of NPS lands, etc), and AFAIK none of these have ever been paired with an expectation that a Senator's office should hire an ArcGIS team to work up an interactive parcel-level map of half of the land area of the United States

It's actually plenty to just have the statute say what the rules are!
"Point at the map exactly what's for sale."

Nothing. Literally nothing. This law establishes zero acres for sale.

It mandates the BLM and NFS to find acreage which fits the rules stipulated.

Now, a totally fair critique is: "What if they can't find enough acreage to fit the rules stipulated?"

And I think that's definitely a weak point in the drafting! I hope they fix it in conference!

In practice I don't think it will be an issue.
Now, I am sure that as soon as BLM/NFS do nominate lands for sale, some enterprising ArcGIS wizard will work up a map, and doubtless there will be some bird or lizard or something on some of the land for people to get angry about. And that's fine! Then you can lobby your state/local government to push back!
Read 4 tweets
Jun 17
Nice work highlighting a cool study showing a Gene-Environment interaction!

Kids with "bad genes" for schooling who have the "good luck" to be born in a rich household do just fine!

Unless the parents divorce, in which case they regress to genetic expectation.
Paper abstract. Image
Image
Read 9 tweets
Jun 10
This article is circulating again.

In the ensuing 5 years, I'm not sure 100% of the article is correct. The scale of historic under-reporting of police-related homicides was probably larger than I allowed for here.

But the basic thesis that police violence is escalating holds up in more recent data.
Here are CDC estimates of "deaths of legal intervention" exclusive of executions. These should overwhelmingly be deaths involving police officers, though I think they might include some deaths involving prisoners. Image
When I shared this data 5 years ago many commenters correctly suggested the pre-2000 data and especially 1960s/1970s data was probably under-reported by a considerable degree. I think that's a reasonable view. Image
Read 13 tweets
May 30
i'm sorry, but this is nonsense

exactly what share of guys in 1300 do you think had a study or a social club!?!?

i literally wrote a history of social clubs in america and what all scholars basically agree on is they were more-or-less invented in the 18th century and popularized in the 19th and collapsed by late 20th; they had less than a century of real heyday because they were actually a massively inefficient mode of social organization.
moreover, their existence was for a specific reason:

male labor productivity had FINALLY broken above subsistence providing some excess leisure opportunities, but this was really just because social norms had prevented women from capturing any of the gains. as soon as women started capturing gains from modernity, the market for male social clubs vanished, because it was an insane arrangement from the beginning.
moreover, even in the age when many men were members of clubs like the Masons or whatever, actual regular participation remains highly elite. the vast majority of Historic Dads in fact had no study, had no club, and the ones who left behind descendants disproportionately were also not at the pub.
Read 4 tweets
May 28
There's a popular myth that when men get promoted, it causes marriage stability, but when women get promoted, it causes divorce.

This turns out to be wrong, but understanding why it's wrong is surprisingly complicated!
So to start with we have to understand something: men usually earn more than women, and this gets more true as marriages go on, as women exit the workforce to raise kids more than men do.
Thus, it's just usually the case that families depend more on a husband's income. And it's less commonly the case that income is lopsided towards a female partner.
Read 33 tweets
Apr 30
Amish people have a lot of babies.

But just how many babies exactly?

In a new paper at @DemographicRes , I and some brilliant coauthors use two totally different measures to measure Amish fertility and show that it is likely in decline.Image
The blue line is actual registry data on Amish families, the red line is a broad catchment of all Pennsylvania Dutch-speakers. Either is a good proxy for "Amish people generally," and for both, "line go down." Image
However, the brown and yellow lines show just possibly-Amish ACS households without phones. See, some Amish people do have phones. Some Amish sects allow them in some circumstances. We can see that the no-phone sects do not evince a pattern of falling fertility.Image
Read 7 tweets

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