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Sina Toossi

@SinaToossi

Jan 29

🧵Over recent days, statements from Iran’s domestic opposition & civil society—including Mir-Hossein Mousavi, Mostafa Tajzadeh, Narges Mohammadi, writers’ association, bus workers’ union—point to a striking convergence in how the protests & their implications are being understood

2/ From prison, Mostafa Tajzadeh calls the mass killings “predictable and preventable,” condemns Khamenei and rule through fear, and warns the current situation is unsustainable as the shadow of war looms.

He urges accountability, citizen resistance, and says he will soon lay out his views on the path ahead.

Translation and link to this full statement below:

"The Machiavellian approach, governance based on fear, revealed itself in the most naked form possible in Dey 1404 and left our nation in mourning for thousands of precious lives.

Alas and pain that this unprecedented killing—from the Constitutional [Revolution] until now—was both predictable and preventable;

of course, if the Supreme Leader had a listening ear and had desisted from monopolizing and totalitarianism, had recognized the people's demands and submitted to the vote and opinion of the majority, or had resigned and stepped aside.

I am very sorry that instead of hearing the voice of the nation, he likened and then transformed the arena of politics into a battlefield.

He called the rightful protests of desperate and rebellious citizens a continuation of the 12-day war with Israel and called the protesters rioters who must be put in their place.

Of course, the result of such a bloody order was nothing but the dragging into earth and blood of thousands of innocent and defenseless citizens who were protesting against the incompetencies, ruins, and forbidden-consumptions [corruption] that were intensifying day by day.

I have no doubt that the official statistics and narrative of what transpired in Dey of this year is a scandalous lie.

Only with the formation of an independent and national fact-finding committee will the real dimensions of this crime become clear.

While condemning this bulk slaughter and considering myself a partner in the grief of each and every bereaved and oppressed family, I offer my condolences for this heart-rending and back-breaking calamity to our dear and mourning nation, and I believe that Iran remains pregnant with great developments.

The existing situation has never been sustainable, although unfortunately, the direction of changes is also not completely clear.

Especially since the ominous specter of war is still flying in our country's sky.

I see moving beyond the disastrous conditions that the Guardianship of the Jurists and the failed government of the clergy have imposed on the Iranian nation as depending on the resistance, intelligence, and responsible action of individual citizens and politicians.

And in the near future, I will share my views about the new situation with the noble people of our country.

In the hope that ultimately, through national dialogue and a historic understanding, we may pass through this deplorable and fragile situation and determine a better tomorrow.

By the help of God and the effort of the nation Seyyed Mostafa Tajzadeh Evin Prison 9 Bahman 1404 [January 29, 2026]"

Link: t.me/tahkimmelat/43…

3/ From house arrest, Mir-Hossein Mousavi declares “the game is over,” directly addresses security forces to lay down their arms, and calls the mass killings a historic crime.

He urges a broad national front and a constitutional referendum for a peaceful, democratic transition, explicitly rejecting foreign intervention.

Translation of his full statement and link below:

In the name of God, the Most Gracious, the Most Merciful

A black page has been added to the long history of our nation, the likes of which Iran does not remember.

As the days pass, the horrifying dimensions of the event become more apparent.

A great betrayal and crime has occurred against the people.

Houses are in mourning.

Alleys are in mourning; cities and townships are in mourning.

After years of the escalating intensity of suppression, this is a catastrophe that will be remembered for decades, rather for centuries.

And a river of warm blood of the deprived, which began to flow on the ground in cold Dey, will not stop its boiling until it changes the course of history.

In what language should the people say they do not want this system and do not believe your lies?

It is enough already.

The game is over.

Oppressions have caught up with you, and the Zaqqum trees [infernal trees] you were planting have borne fruit.

At that time when you were wearing combat clothes against your own nation, you were striking an axe to your own roots.

At that time when you were suppressing the well-wishers of the people and did not allow the slightest word of truth in defense of human rights, you were rolling out the red carpet for foreign intervention.

At that time when you were putting your fingers in your ears to not hear the advice of well-wishers, you were, through ignorance, losing your most precious opportunities.

Your turn has also come.

Nothing remains of you either but a story; a story full of blood and violence.

It is enough already.

Neither do you have a solution for any of the country's crises, nor do the nation have any choice but to protest again until achieving a result.

And you will not be able to repeat the catastrophe of the 18th and 19th of Dey.

This is a burden that the military and law enforcement forces, sooner or later—and probably sooner—will refuse to carry.

Lay down your guns and step aside from power so that the nation itself may bring this land to freedom and prosperity.

The path that this small companion of the people suggests for this purpose is the holding of a constitutional referendum by forming a comprehensive front, consisting of all national tastes [political leanings], based on three principles:

non-interference of foreigners,
negation of domestic tyranny,
and a peaceful democratic transition;

because the establishment of lasting peace and security and saving the country from the evil of the ruling tyranny, based on the will and desire of the nation, is possible only by the hands of the people and without foreign intervention.

O Lord, hear the cry that Your oppressed servants bring to Your threshold from the depth of their conscience and answer their prayer for a free and prosperous Iran.
This is the only consolation that calms the bereaved souls of our people.

And when the prisoners are freed, the first of them will be Your religion, which, after a long captivity in the clutches of religion-sellers, will once again see the Muhammadan smile of the sun.

For Iran, and especially its newly-risen generation, I wish pride and prosperity.

Mir-Hossein Mousavi 9 Bahman 1404 [January 29, 2026]"

Link: t.me/tahkimmelat/43…

Read 7 tweets

Sina Toossi

@SinaToossi

Jan 17

I wrote for @thenation on Iran’s protests and the double bind Iranians face: brutal repression at home and cynical exploitation from abroad.

This is not solidarity. It is predation.

🧵>>>

thenation.com/article/world/…

2/ Iran’s repression must be named plainly: decades of denied political inclusion, economic security, and basic social rights, replaced by criminalization and force.

Protesters are citizens who have exhausted institutional channels and now risk their lives to demand change.

3/ Iranians are not only crushed from within but exploited from without.

As protesters were being shot, Trump lurched from war threats to then echoing Tehran’s own framing on protestors.

This is the pattern: Iranian lives treated as expendable tools in a geopolitical contest.

Read 10 tweets

Sina Toossi

@SinaToossi

Jan 1

My initial take on Iran’s latest protests:

What matters most isn’t what trends online, but how far protests spread, who participates & whether cracks appear within the state.

I compare this moment to Iran’s major protest waves since 2009 below.

🧵👇

dissidentforeignpolicy.com/p/what-to-watc…

2/ The current protests began Sunday in a telling place: among mobile phone and tech merchants in Tehran, one of the sectors hardest hit by the rial’s recent sharp depreciation.

Economic stress was the spark, as it often is.

3/ From there, protests spilled into nearby streets of the capital and then into other cities.

As they spread, economic grievances mixed with openly anti-government slogans, a familiar trajectory in Iran’s protest cycles.

Read 18 tweets

Sina Toossi

@SinaToossi

Nov 12, 2025

Iran’s water crisis is suddenly everywhere.

President Pezeshkian warned that “if it doesn’t rain by Azar [Nov 22], we’ll have to ration water in Tehran; if drought continues, we may even have to empty the capital.”

How bad is it really, and what’s behind it?

THREAD 🧵>>>

2/ Short answer: the situation is serious but not a doomsday scenario.

This autumn, 20 provinces have recorded zero rainfall, an unprecedented situation in 60+ years.

Official data point to an 83% drop in precipitation vs last year and a 25% fall in dam storage.

3/ Drought is only part of the story.

Iran is naturally arid/semi-arid.

Water scarcity has been a fact of life since antiquity, which is why Iranians invented systems like qanats and water cisterns to stretch every drop.

Today’s crisis is mostly about poor policy.

Read 13 tweets

Sina Toossi

@SinaToossi

Sep 23, 2025

🧵In NYC, Iran’s FM Araghchi meets his E3 counterparts (Germany, France, UK).

After a new Iran-IAEA deal in Cairo—forced by Israeli/US bombings—the E3 push UN “snapback” sanctions.

They blame Iran for breaking the 2015 deal that Washington & Europe themselves abandoned first.

2/ This “snapback” power comes from the Obama-era JCPOA.

It included a “snapback” clause letting parties restore UN sanctions from 2006–10.

These primarily targeted Iran’s nuclear program—asset freezes, arms & dual-use limits—but didn’t hit Iran’s broader trade or economy.

3/ Any “pressure” from snapback will be marginal—mainly a short-lived psychological hit.

Iran’s real squeeze has come from U.S. secondary sanctions since 2018, crippling oil, banking & trade.

These UN sanctions will limited and add little beyond symbolism.

Read 10 tweets

Sina Toossi

@SinaToossi

Aug 10, 2025

Israel does not act like an ally.

It acts like a liability—costing America billions, eroding our credibility, and pulling us into endless wars we can’t afford.

I lay out the case in @amconmag 👇

🧵>>>

2/ Even Trump has privately admitted there’s “real starvation” in Gaza—and told a donor, “My people are starting to hate Israel.”

From MTG to Bannon to Tucker, even voices on the right are now openly questioning the US–Israel relationship.

The shift is real & long overdue.

3/ For decades, Washington has given Israel unconditional military aid, diplomatic cover, and political backing—no matter how destabilizing its actions.

This is not burden-sharing. It’s moral hazard.

Read 14 tweets

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