Sina Toossi Profile picture
Jun 20 4 tweets 1 min read Read on X
Iran’s missile strategy appears to be working: initial heavy missile (& drone) barrages drained Israeli interceptors, and now fewer launches are landing more hits.

This points to better accuracy, degraded defenses, and a shift to inflicting long-term attrition on Israel. Image
And from what I’m hearing from well-placed sources in Washington: Iranian missiles are hitting key military and intelligence targets in Israel.

Targets we don’t see footage of.

Behind the scenes, Israeli officials are reportedly reeling.
Reportedly, Iran launched 23 missiles at Israeli targets today—with all 23 appearing to hit.

Some were Sejjil-class, others reportedly new types unfamiliar to Israel.

No visible sign of interceptions.

Clear indication of growing precision and capability.
For the first time in history, reports suggest nearly all 10 million residents of Israeli-controlled territory took shelter simultaneously.

A remarkable indication of how disruptive these strikes have become.

And of the pressure now mounting on Israel’s leadership.

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More from @SinaToossi

Jun 23
From the outset, Israel’s aims were unmistakable:

1) torpedo U.S.-Iran diplomacy;
2) drag Washington into conflict;
3) take out Iran’s nuclear and missile programs;
4) trigger regime change.

If the ceasefire Trump just announced holds—and is paired with serious U.S.-Iran diplomacy—it would mark a strategic defeat for Israel in launching this war.

Netanyahu took his shot. A desperate Hail Mary. And none of it has worked up until now.

Fordow was evacuated. The site may very well be intact.

And in any case, Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile and advanced centrifuges are now hidden, with a stronger covert breakout ability than ever.

The Iranian public has rallied in defense of the country and against foreign aggression.

If the government channels this unity into a new social contract, it could be transformative. If not, the old polarization may return.

Meanwhile, Iran has hit Israel hard over these 12 days: Tel Aviv, Haifa, the north, south, and other cities have seen major destruction. Military and intelligence sites damaged. Energy and research infrastructure hit.

Israel’s vaunted air defenses failed the test. Its reliance on the U.S. has never been clearer.

Netanyahu saw the costs of a war of attrition and blinked.

But for Iran, can any ceasefire be trusted?

Unless it’s tied to credible U.S. diplomacy—not maximalist demands—and unless Israel halts covert attacks and assassinations and continued airstrikes (a la Lebanon and Syria), this truce will likely collapse.

Trump helped create this mess by enabling Netanyahu.

If he truly wants to stop the region from being “destroyed,” as he just said, he’ll have to restrain Netanyahu and force a ceasefire in Gaza too.

Lasting peace is impossible until Netanyahu and his war-first approach is gone for good.Image


2/ REMEMBER: Netanyahu explicitly said Israel’s military operation in Iran would continue “for as long as it takes” to eliminate what he called the "existential threat of Iran’s nuclear program and arsenal of ballistic missiles."

That hasn't happened! Far from it. Image
3/ As the Economist noted: Israel wanted "at least" 2 weeks to destroy Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities.

It achieved neither.

Without regime change or capitulation, the war “makes sense only if it can set back” Iran’s nuclear program by years — and it hasn’t.Image
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Read 5 tweets
Jun 11
🚨US intel is increasingly concerned Israel may unilaterally strike Iran’s nuclear sites without US consent.

Israel is no ally—it’s a strategic burden.

It isolates America, fuels endless war, and gives US rivals like China room to maneuver.

Polymarket odds just spiked to 50%. Image
Israel isn’t like Taiwan or Ukraine—small states on the frontlines against a US great power rival (which Iran isn’t).

It’s a pariah state with impunity: dragging the US into self-defeating quagmires, trampling international law, and weakening America in great power competition.
If Israel attacks Iran, the US should absolutely stay out.

It’s a war with zero benefit to American interests—only costs.

Our key regional & global partners oppose it.

The American people don’t want it.

It would hand China & Russia a gift, and wreck Trump’s agenda.
Read 11 tweets
Apr 28
🧵Aerial and drone footage from Bandar Abbas shows major damage at Iran’s most vital port.

Over 1,200 injured and 46 dead so far.

Officials say operations have resumed and port infrastructure is intact—only parts of the container storage area were damaged.

Latest developments:
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2/ Masoud Daneshmand, head of Iran's National Association of Transport Companies:

-"The explosion at Rajaei Port will not harm the import of essential goods; because less than 15 percent of our imports come through this port

-"No damage occurred to the docks in this explosion"
3/ Emerging facts: Separate explosions at Bandar Abbas hit containers 500–700 meters apart with no physical link, pointing more to sabotage than an accident based on the information we have at this stage.

Read 9 tweets
Apr 26
در ۱۰ تا ۱۵ سال گذشته، با شدت گرفتن جنگ سایه‌ای ایران و اسرائیل، نظریه «تله جنگ» استراتژی تهران را شکل داده.

با انفجار امروز بندرعباس و سوالات جدید، در ادامه نگاهی کوتاه دارم به خویشتن‌داری ایران، بحث‌های داخلی و شرایط حساس فعلی.

#رشته_توئیت 🧵>>>
۲/ بر اساس نظریه «تله جنگ»، اسرائیل به دنبال تحریک ایران به یک جنگ گسترده‌تر است، و ایران باید از هر واکنشی که سطح تنش‌ها را بالا ببرد، خودداری کند.
۳/ این طرز فکر به‌ویژه میان اصلاح‌طلبان و میانه‌روها در تهران غالب شده، اما بسیاری از اصولگرایان و حتی به نظر می‌رسد خود رهبری هم آن را پذیرفته‌اند.

خرابکاری‌ها، ترورها و عملیات‌های مخفیانه اسرائیل به عنوان تلاشی حساب‌شده برای کشاندن ایران به یک جنگ بزرگ دیده می‌شود.
Read 8 tweets
Apr 26
Over the past 10–15 years, as Iran’s shadow war with Israel has escalated, a key theory has shaped Tehran’s strategy: the "war trap."

With today’s Bandar Abbas explosion raising new questions, some quick analysis below on Iran’s restraint, internal debates & rising stakes.

🧵>>
2/ The "war trap" theory holds that Israel is trying to provoke a wider war, and that Iran must avoid retaliations that move up the escalation ladder.
3/ This mentality has particularly shaped thinking in Tehran among reformists and moderates, but also many conservatives and seemingly Khamenei himself.

Sabotage, assassinations & covert attacks are seen as deliberate efforts to lure Iran into a big war.
Read 8 tweets
Apr 7
🧵In a striking moment at the White House today, Trump told reporters that direct talks with Iran have begun—and will continue this Saturday.

The implications could be huge.

Here's why this matters and what could really be happening behind the scenes.

>>>
2/ Trump’s announcement comes despite Iran’s Supreme Leader recently ruling out direct negotiations with the US under Trump, who not only pulled out of the 2015 nuclear deal but also ordered the assassination of top Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in his first term.
3/ And yet, Iran recently responded to a letter from Trump proposing negotiations.

Their reply? They’re open to indirect talks via Oman.

If those build goodwill, then direct talks could follow according to Iranian sources.
Read 19 tweets

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