Thread by @SangerEatbabies

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Expect some lean years in spending within Florida. As this year's current budget has shown, policymakers and budget staff are predicting a multi-headed monster that will test both the working capital fund and the budget stabilization fund for Florida.

Let's start with the positive of conservative budget stewardship regarding the state budget.
-Right now, we have a 17 billion overall total reserves
-The Budget stabilization fund is at 4 billion dollars that can be used to offset costs, if Florida has to "dip" into that fund.

The Budget Stabilization Fund consists of at least 5% of the General Revenue Fund's net revenue collections for the last completed fiscal year. The fund's principal balance cannot exceed 10% of the last completed fiscal year's net revenue collections. Essentially its a buffer

The last time the state had to "DIP" into this fund was 2009. Florida had to transfer $400 million from this fund into the state budget to compensate for the economic losses and revenue declines from the 2008 recession.

The current budget that was just passed caught my eye because it transfers 750 million from the general fund to the Budget Stabilization Fund. Signaling a multitude of factors are coming at the state in the next few years. What are these headwinds?

In September of last year, a legislative commission report was released and estimated a 3 billion shortfall in 2026 and 7 billion in 2027. Legislative study below
edr.state.fl.us/Content/long-r…

The principal reasons behind this shortage
-Medicaid cost at the state level and funding from the federal government
-Education costs are expected to increase with shared burden on the state
-Expected decrease in FEMA compensation to help the state reimbursement for pre/post $$$

3 year outlook

Major cost drivers to the state budget are listed by increase
Human Services(Social Services)
Pre K Programs
DEP

🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩Glaring hole in this report, is how the state absorbs the reorganization of FEMA from a Federal reimbursement to a state function???🚩🚩🚩🚩

The problem with Florida Medicaid is not the caseload; it's the cost per caseload keeps rising rapidly.

@UnrollHelper