- by hitting high-end sensor elements like the X-band AN/TPY-2 radars
➡️ Which in turn disables 🇮🇱 capability to identify and discriminate between real targets and decoys, but most importantly; avoid wasting interceptors on empty spent 1st stage boosters which come behind them
If Iran manages to deplete 🇮🇱's interceptor inventory, it will not only cause a 2-digit billion $$$ financial loss
➡️ An Israel which can't defend against ballistic-missiles can't continue a war for long and will have a very bad negotiation position at a future table
Once Israel's missile defenses are exhausted, Iran can start to use more accurate missiles with lower terminal speed.
➡️ Current missile have to be very fast ones to lure interceptors launches. This reduces accuracy
➡️ Hence airbases the basis for 🇮🇱 airpower will be targeted
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- Israeli missile interceptors stocks & sensor performance will degrade over time
- Iranian missile bases & launchers safety protocols will get more loose once the in-situ sabotage assets like OWA- & FPV-drones/ATGMs are found or depleted
1/4
Since Israel hit civilian targets at the start of the attack, Iran will use heavy missiles like Emad to hit targets, even in urban regions.
Once Arrow-3 and THAAD are exhausted by trying to catch hypersonics like Kheybar-Shekan-2/Fattah-1 via multiple launches against single missiles
➡️ The gates are open for heavy Emad hits
And up until here, there is no talk about higher end even heavier warhead missiles like the Khorramshahr family
In comparison, Israel relies primarily on OWA-type drones to hit soft targets.
The psychological effects of seeing a burning oil depot are very different to experiencing a blast of a 1-ton warhead at mach 6
➡️ Combining Tabas and Raad ambush SAM systems in the yet unknown SAM system (left photo)
Lets take a look at the features of Raad-3/Tabas-2 (whatever its called), some of which are unique 1/2
Main feature is passive engagement capability of the Raad system, which combines infrared volume search with a long-range laser-range-finder
➡️ It allows passive engagement up until the last seconds before SAM impact, when it switches to terminal SARH mode and radar is turned on
In the new system, infrared search cameras are likely mounted on the mast, putting it at higher position
On the photo, the mast only mounts the long-range directional data-link antenna, which is a very important capability of the system.
It relies on upper-echelon early warning