Nearly every week, headlines, X threads, and opinion pieces tout drones as the new defining technology of modern and future warfare. While there is certainly truth to that, it’s worth stepping back and examining this "now-mainstream" idea. 🧵Thread:
2/ Ukraine has become the first battleground where drones have fundamentally reshaped the battlefield. By estimates, over 70% of battlefield losses are from the drones. Even if the exact figure varies depending on the source or methodology, most assessments place it above 50%
3/ In many ways, Ukraine has done for drones what "Operation Desert Storm", and later the "Shock and Awe" campaign in Iraq did for modern warfare: reshaping assumptions and demonstrating the transformative role of air supremacy and advanced technology across all levels of combat
4/ Ukraine’s battlefield experience is not easy to generalize. After three years, the airspace is still contested. Neither side has managed to mount large-scale, combined-arms breakthroughs. Flat terrain, adjacent borders, and organizational issues on both sides shape the war
5/ In contrast, the Gulf War coalition held a clear technological and organizational edge over Iraqi forces. Yet, even with air superiority and overwhelming firepower, similar coalitions in Afghanistan failed to maintain full territorial control over two decades.
6/ The current elevation of drones in military discourse risks repeating a similar mistake - placing too much faith in one domain of warfare. In the 1990s and early 2000s, air supremacy was treated as a silver bullet. Today, drones have assumed that role in some analyses.
7/ Looking ahead, a potential conflict in the Pacific- between China and a coalition of nations(?) - would look markedly different from Ukraine. It also could go either way: brief and high-intensity or prolonged war, and in both cases, the dynamics will be unique in its own way
8/ That brings me to a broader point: both I and many members of our team remain sceptical of any analysis that tries to reduce the complexity of war to raw metrics - be it drone production output or simplistic comparisons of fifth-generation fighter inventories.
9/ While drones will undoubtedly play increasingly important role in wars, they are only one layer in the dimension. Logistics, resources, alliances, political stability, production capacity, national resilience, tactics, and broad strategy will decide the outcome more.
10/ And speaking of tactics - on Monday, we’ll be releasing a new report on Russia’s use of motorcycle assault groups: The report looks at what drove this tactical shift, assesses its impact, and outlines what can be learned from it. Follow for updates and future reports
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