Thread by @cirnosad

Bunker Busters and Armageddon /🧵

The war with Iran has been authorised by the psychopath in chief Trump. From the very beginning, at the start of his term, he placed a proverbial Chekhov's gun on the fire place at Diego Garcia: B-2s.

The threat wasn't the stealth but the load.

Before I begin, it's important to understand some characteristics of the B-2 bomber. What it can do and what it cannot do.

The B-2 is not a magic stealth bomber, it has a physical extent and is easily detectable by a competent enemy -- it is usually escorted by fighter jets.

The F-117 had a much smaller RCS and was shot down by Serbian defenders with ancient SAMs.
The B-2 can be easily targeted unless air supremacy is achieved.

The point of using B-2s is in fact, NOT their stealth capability...

It's their bomb bay capacity!

The B-2 bomb bay is so massive that it can carry not one but two Massive Ordnance Penetrators (GBU-57/MOP).
It's actually these bombs that form Chekhov's gun against Iran: these bombs are not what they seem and were redesigned for this mission from 2009 onwards.
20-30 were built.

Most of what we know about the MOP is from what is offered as unclassified press statements. The specifications are one of the most highly classified secrets within the US military and government.

Notably, it is the largest/heaviest bomb deployed by any military in the world.

The GBU-57 has never been officially used in combat. This is curious given how many opportunities would have presented themselves over the course of the 13 years of its active service. The small number officially built is also curious.

Its design was proposed right after 9/11.

The bomb's specifications are staggering.
This is a very long bomb at 6.2m, and yet, at least physically it can only penetrate >60 meters of soil but only around 8 meters of reinforced concrete. Payload of 2,700kg*.

This presents a very difficult problem for this mission.

Our best intelligence on its supposedly intended target, Fordow, suggests that the target is buried under 800m-1km of mountain granite.

The 2,700kg payload, were it conventional, would merely tickle someone in this facility!

Something is deeply wrong here, let's investigate.

Our most recent source of information is an annual (2023) report by the Director Operational Test and Evaluation, signalling modifications done to the MOP.

This particular report slipped by most people's radars but it contained some important information. Fuze and guidance (GPS)

The modification, reported in 2023, was completed around February 2025:
It allegedly focused on the bomb's fuze, supposedly a void vacancy detection fuse, suggests that this bomb is designed to bomb deep tunnel entrances and detonate within them.

Keep this in mind for later.

The guidance system for the MOP was reported as laser guidance in the past, but there is no evidence of this and the only intelligence we have suggests it is GPS/INS guided, which makes sense for deep targets beyond laser painting reach.

This means the MOP has a CEP of 5-10m.

What is a Circular Error Probability?
It's quite a simple concept. If you drop 20 of these, you'll get a pattern like that below. Of the 20 bombs dropped, 10 of them (i.e. 50%), will drop within a circle of 5 meters (or 10 meters at worst).
Even with guidance, there is a scatter.

Right now, stenographers/media propagandists are suggesting that the MOP has a purely conventional fill.

The basis is this photograph released by the US airforce. The bomb supposedly has two filling:

AFX-757 - 2000 kg A polymer based insensitive explosive
PBXN-114 - 342 kg (*)

This payload and penetration would make it completely useless in this mission. In fact, the most it would be able to do is disable the entrances to the facilities, and we've seen from Iranian tempo that this would only last 24-48 hours before tunnels are operational again.

But the US is not stupid. It just wants you to think it is.
And it also thinks you are stupid. Let's fix that.
I will present the stupidest idea I've ever seen proposed for how this bomb can possibly reach Fordow.
Here is the setup. Let's think about reaching the facility itself:

You drop a single GBU-57 into the mountain range, let's say the fins stabilise it and it comes in at an almost vertical angle for deepest penetration and proper bomb operation.

Look at this test and notice how the soil "swallows" it, as though it was going through water.

But it stops at 8 meters and blows its 2.4 ton payload without finding a cavity. Well, you might say, you can just hit that same 'tunnel' and just keep "drilling" into the mountain using these limited number of bombs, until you reach Fordow at 800 meters.

Right away, anyone who isn't physically or numerically challenged will spot some impossibilities here:
1. A bomb with a diameter of 0.8 meter and a CEP of 5m is never going to strike the same spot twice.
2. The angle of penetration won't be the same, even for the same plane!

3. Gravity won't stop and the soil, rock, etc. will cover up the hole as quickly as an unconventional explosion could.
4. With only 20-30 priceless bombs to play with, and a penetration depth of 8 meters, and say a cratering damage equivalent to the same, you will reach only 480m

This means this was never the true purpose of the MOP. It cannot be used for such a stupid mission.
So we have to conclude that the Whiteman AF base photograph release was a PSYOP and a particularly clever one dealing with compartmentalisation.
I'm going to explain what it's for.

There is another payload that is very similar to the 342kg "booster" payload: The B61 Mod 11/12/13, coming in at between 320-350kg. A few dozen of the B61 Mod 13 have been built. Enough for every MOP in service.

The B61 Mod 13 is an Earth Penetrating Weapon (bunker buster)!

The B61 Mod 13 was meant to retire the 1 Megaton B83-1 bomb.
The B61 Mod 13 supposedly uses the same physics package as the Mod 7, but in theory, it can pack a much bigger punch (~1 kt/kg through to 6kt/kg ).
Something like ~700kT is plausible -- we can't know until it blows.

The timing and urgency of this modification program is quite suspect.

Gravity bombs are utterly useless except for enemies whose air defences have been largely destroyed. This even holds true for the GBU-57 even when carried by the B-2.
The B61Mod13 is rated for very high g's!

Let's say, the B61-Mod 13 can be disassembled (removing its fins) and reassembled into the highly modular BLU-127 (GBU-57's case). What if the 2000 kg filling was instead filled with a shock absorbing material? It can be an inert elastomer rather than the AFX757 filing!

Then you have a bomb that can create a nuclear blast wave THROUGH the tunnel system presumably, past the blast walls, CRUSHING/suffocating everything inside the facility.
In shallower targets, from the shockwave alone, crush it all.
/End
PS This is how Nasrallah was assassinated.

Addendum: What happens if the US fails?
What happens if the Iranian "granite level" reinforced concrete survives this attack? What happens if Iran's air defenses hold?

The US will be exposed for having used nuclear weapons inside Iran. Iran will retaliate, armageddon will begin.