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America-China Watcher

Jun 21 • 13 tweets • 8 min read • Read on X

China is already backing Iran in a big way

China Just Gave Iran a Lifeline—Without BeiDou, Iran Might Have Surrendered

Beneath a smoke-filled night sky, an Iranian missile streaked across the darkness and slammed directly into the Israeli Ministry of Defense’s command center. The explosion instantly cut surveillance feeds. Shockwaves rippled through nearby neighborhoods, shaking buildings across several kilometers.

Meanwhile, in a Tehran command room, Iranian technicians monitored a BeiDou navigation terminal as the coordinates updated in real time. The missile hit with surgical precision. On-screen, the hit-probability curve spiked—marking a turning point: Iran had entered the age of precision warfare.

And it owed that breakthrough to China’s BeiDou satellite system.

🧵

I. How BeiDou Took Over the Persian Gulf

In 2021, Iran and China signed a 25-year comprehensive cooperation agreement. Western analysts mostly overlooked a critical clause: Iran’s full access to China’s BeiDou satellite network.

This single line quietly began to shift the power balance in the Middle East.

For years, Iran had been shackled by the invisible restraints of American GPS. Its missiles were vulnerable to signal interference. Its drones could be spoofed or hijacked. With BeiDou, Iran gained full navigation autonomy—guiding missiles and drones independent of Western infrastructure.

The technological leap became a battlefield advantage. With over 6,000 missiles connected to BeiDou, Iran’s accuracy improved to meter-level precision. Its offensive capabilities expanded accordingly.

Take the Hoveyzeh cruise missile: with BeiDou-assisted upgrades, its range now extends to 2,500 kilometers, rivaling the U.S. Tomahawk. Iranian drones also began operating in “intelligent swarm” formations, coordinating through BeiDou’s encrypted signal network to outmaneuver Israeli defenses.

II. Dual-Layer Supremacy: How BeiDou Beats GPS

Iran’s adoption of BeiDou wasn’t just technical—it was strategic necessity. Among the world’s four satellite navigation systems, Russia’s GLONASS and Europe’s Galileo lacked sufficient accuracy. The U.S. GPS system, meanwhile, was a liability: easily denied, manipulated, and used as a weapon.

BeiDou’s strength lies in its dual-layer satellite structure: a global base layer augmented by a dense regional constellation optimized for Asia. This overlapping architecture creates a robust signal capable of punching through sophisticated jamming and spoofing efforts by the U.S.–Israel alliance.

During Iran’s missile launches, BeiDou’s enhanced Asian signals cut through Western electronic warfare.

III. Surrender or Sovereignty: The Strategic Stakes

Imagine an alternate reality: had Iran still been relying on GPS during its June 2025 retaliation, the result could have been catastrophic. One U.S. command could have cut navigation entirely:

Hundreds of drones would’ve crashed mid-flight.

Cruise missiles could’ve plunged into the Mediterranean.

Ballistic missiles might’ve misfired and struck Iranian soil.

A military force without satellite guidance is a blind army. BeiDou wasn’t just a tool; it was Iran’s path to sovereignty and national dignity.

IV. Precision Retaliation: Proof of Satellite Guidance

Iran’s June 2025 barrage wasn’t emotional, nor random. It was measured, mirrored, and methodical—a clinical demonstration of retaliatory symmetry:

Israel struck Iranian command centers → Iran hit Israel’s Ministry of Defense.

Israel bombed scientific research centers → Iran targeted Rafael Defense Systems.

Israel assassinated IRGC commanders → Iran struck Netanyahu’s private residence in Caesarea.

Israel hit military-industrial facilities → Iran bombed Haifa Port.

Israel targeted Iran’s economic base → Iran responded by hitting Diamond District, the Tel Aviv stock exchange, and elite suburbs — a direct strike at Israel’s economic morale.

These were not arbitrary impacts. They were deliberate, equivalent counterstrikes, demonstrating strategic coherence and high accuracy—something only possible with reliable satellite guidance.

V. The Denial: Iranian Pride or Strategic Amnesia?

Yet even in the face of this evidence, some incorrigibly arrogant Iranians on X claim that these strikes were executed without BeiDou—that Iran achieved such precision without any Chinese tech, using only inertial or optical guidance.

Such claims collapse under scrutiny:

1. Inertial Navigation Systems (INS) drift over long distances according to a programmed itinerary and cannot maintain meter-level accuracy.

2. Optical systems fail in darkness, poor weather, or long-range strikes beyond visual range.

3. Complex, multi-phase corrections—especially mid-flight—require real-time data that only satellites provide.

The timing, pairing, and specificity of the June strikes demand full-phase, satellite-enabled navigation. GPS was unavailable. BeiDou was the only functioning option.

But strategic autonomy does not mean isolation. Iran’s precision today was made possible by China’s space power—and that truth is written across every blast crater.

It appears that Iran and many people are complaining that Iran is not getting any help from Russia and China. That's ignoring the elephant in the room.

If the contribution is so big that failing which Iran's missile strikes are all nullified, it's called strategic critical logistics support. That's helping in a big way.

My source is this article

https://x.com/MSA397354584375/status/1936539099860697595?t=NPpSFTNI9yxrIIE-BpoOEA&s=19

Chatgpt:

📌 Iran’s Missiles and BeiDou: Confirmed Integration

1. 2015 – Initial technical cooperation

Iran’s electronics firm Salran signed MoUs with Chinese counterparts to integrate BeiDou satellite navigation into Iranian missiles and UAVs, aiming to improve targeting accuracy.

Agreements included building ground stations in Iran and transferring BeiDou technology, under the support of Iran Electronics Industries (linked to the MODAFL).

2. 2021 – Full military access to BeiDou

In January 2021, Iran’s ambassador in Beijing publicly confirmed that China granted Iran military-grade access to BeiDou.

Experts note this gives Iran the ability to navigate and guide missiles with encrypted BeiDou signals, improving precision across ballistic and cruise missile platforms.

3. BeiDou vs GLONASS

Russia’s GLONASS is used as a backup but is less accurate, particularly for military-grade applications.

GLONASS signals are unencrypted for civilian users and are generally considered inferior in precision to BeiDou’s dual-band encrypted service.

In many Iranian military platforms, GLONASS has been supplemented or replaced by BeiDou. Some Chinese-supplied missile guidance units use dual-mode GLONASS-BeiDou chips, but BeiDou provides the primary accuracy.

4. Strategic Importance

Under the China–Iran 25-year strategic partnership, BeiDou is now a core component of Iran’s C4ISR (Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance).

This represents a break from Western-controlled GPS, enabling Iran to operate independently of U.S. satellite guidance, which has been blocked or spoofed in past conflicts.

---

🧭 Summary Table

SystemAccuracy (Military Use)EncryptionUsed by Iran?Notes

BeiDouHigh (1–3 m CEP or better)Yes (military-grade)✅ Integrated in missiles & UAVsProvided by China
GLONASSModerate (5–10 m CEP)No (civilian-grade only for Iran)✅ Used in hybrid systemsSupplementary, less precise
GPSDenied or spoofedDenied to Iran❌ BlockedU.S.-controlled

Google Gemini confirms Beidou has exceeded GPS capability:

"Official Recognition: A US government advisory panel on GPS has even conceded that "GPS is now notably below par to China's BeiDou" technically in some areas""

* Beidou has indeed made significant advancements and in many aspects, it has surpassed GPS.
* Number of Satellites: Beidou has a larger constellation of satellites (currently around 35-56 depending on the source and inclusion of different generations) compared to GPS (around 31 operational satellites). A larger constellation can offer better coverage and redundancy.
* Accuracy: Many reports indicate that Beidou offers superior accuracy for public use, often less than 1 meter, compared to GPS's typical accuracy of less than 4.9 meters. With augmentation systems, both can achieve sub-meter to centimeter-level precision.
* Signal Frequencies: Beidou utilizes multiple frequencies simultaneously, which can make it more resilient to disruptions and improve accuracy by correcting for atmospheric interference. GPS also uses multiple frequencies (L1, L2, L5) but Beidou's implementation has been highlighted as particularly robust.
* Unique Features: Beidou has a unique short message communication (SMC) capability, allowing users to send text messages even in remote areas without other communication infrastructure. This is not a feature of GPS.
* Monitoring Stations: Beidou reportedly has significantly more monitoring stations globally than GPS, which aids in its overall accuracy and reliability.
* Official Recognition: A US government advisory panel on GPS has even conceded that "GPS is now notably below par to China's BeiDou" technically in some areas.
While GPS remains widely adopted and interoperable with other GNSS systems, Beidou's rapid development and advanced featuras a very strong contender, and in several technical aspects, it has indeed exceeded GPS.
For Iran, is GPS not available, blocked, and controlled by the U.S., and is its precision inferior?
* GPS Availability in Iran: GPS is generally available globally, including in Iran, as it broadcasts signals worldwide. However, there have been recent reports (as of June 2025) of significant GPS jamming and spoofing near Iran's coast, particularly in the Arabian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. This disruption, affecting nearly 1,000 ships daily, makes safe navigation difficult and has been linked to recent maritime incidents.
* Control and Blocking by the U.S.: GPS is indeed controlled by the U.S. government, and theoretically, access can be restricted or degraded during conflicts. This is a strategic concern for many nations, including Iran, who seek alternative navigation systems for national security and autonomy. While a complete, nationwide "blocking" of GPS by the U.S. for civilian use in Iran is not the default state, localized jamming or spoofing for strategic purposes can occur and is currently being reported.
* Precision Inferiority: As mentioned above, standard GPS public signals do have a lower precision (less than 4.9 meters) compared to Beidou's stated public precision (less than 1 meter). So, in terms of raw publicly available precision, Beidou generally offers better accuracy.

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More from @PandemicTruther

America-China Watcher

@PandemicTruther

Jun 22

The Hidden Logic Behind the Iran-Israel War: Not Just About Iran—It's About Saving the Dollar

This war isn’t just about Israel trying to bomb Iran. It’s about something far bigger: protecting the U.S. financial system from collapse.

Let’s be clear. Israel doesn’t act alone. It’s been conferring with Wall Street and taking quiet instructions from the Federal Reserve. But this time, Israel miscalculated.

Tel Aviv didn’t expect the scale, speed, or precision of Iran’s retaliation. Neither did Washington. The shock was real. What followed made one thing painfully obvious: Israel can’t handle a long, high-intensity war—not logistically, not militarily, not politically.

Because this was never just Israel’s war.

Israel acts as a militarized outpost for the U.S.-led financial empire. Its role is strategic, but the real beneficiary of this war isn’t just Israel. It’s Wall Street.

The U.S. national debt is over $37 trillion. Interest payments are now the biggest item in the federal budget. Investors are nervous. Who wants to keep buying U.S. Treasuries when the math no longer works?

To keep capital flowing into U.S. bonds, you need to create fear. The world must believe:
- The U.S. is the only safe haven,
- Every other region is one trigger away from chaos,
- And the U.S. military can plunge any competitor into ruin at will.

In the past, often at the moment when the Fed increased the interest rate, a major war breaks out. Purpose of both is to cause capital flight into USD assets.

- In March 2022, the Fed raised rates.
- Days earlier on February 24, Russia moved into Ukraine.
- Panic ensued. Over €400 billion fled into U.S. assets.
- German industry was crushed by energy inflation. Many factories left—some to the U.S., but others to China to the indignation of the US government. That's why Obama accused China of being a "free rider"

🧵

In early 1999, as the euro was freshly launched and gaining traction, the United States and NATO escalated their military intervention in Kosovo. This bombing campaign against Serbia had significant repercussions for European markets. The euro dropped sharply—by nearly 30% against the dollar in the early months of the conflict—while capital rushed into the relative safety of U.S. Treasuries. Although exact figures vary, analysts at the time noted that several hundred billion euros left European markets, seeking refuge in American bonds. This exodus helped reinforce the dollar’s position at a critical moment for the euro’s early credibility.

But even war has limits when Wall Street calls the shots. Israel could have hit Kharg Island, Iran’s oil lifeline—handling nearly 90% of its crude exports. Destroying it would have shattered Iran’s economy. But oil would’ve hit $300 or even $400 a barrel. Inflation would spike worldwide. The Fed would be forced to hike interest rates again, driving U.S. debt servicing into a death spiral. That’s a risk Washington can't afford.

So quietly, behind closed doors, lines were drawn. Targets were chosen with financial risk in mind. Because above all else, Wall Street, the Fed, and the U.S. government have a common priority: protect investor confidence in U.S. bonds.

But that confidence is crumbling.

The U.S. credit rating was already downgraded by Fitch in 2023. Fundamentals are weakening. And yet, the dollar still stands. Why? Because it's backed by firepower. The U.S. military—and its Israeli outpost—project chaos as a service. That chaos reminds global investors: the safest place for your money is still the United States. Not because the numbers add up—but because the U.S. can burn the rest of the world down at will.

Except for one place: CHINA

The U.S. wants to replicate its old playbook: destabilize, provoke panic, and attract capital and restore manufacturing. The goal is simple—push factories and money out of China, and back into the US.

They’ve tried it all:
- Protests in Hong Kong,
- Separatist pushes in Xinjiang and Tibet,
- Arms to Taiwan,
- Naval standoffs in the South China Sea,
- Provoking India to antagonize China along the Himalayas,
- Stirring conflict between the Philippines and China.

None of it worked.

China/Asia refused to burn. And China held the line. No civil war, no proxy war, no failed state. Just calm. That’s a strategic defeat for Washington.

Even the Indo-Pakistan conflict—backed by the U.S.—failed to escalate. China’s modern war doctrine helped end it in 72 hours.

India stepped back. Pakistan quietly claimed it had the ability to shoot down 20 Indian jets—but chose not to to avoid escalation.

In this region, wars don’t escalate.

Why? Because China is quietly holding the perimeter.

Read 7 tweets

America-China Watcher

@PandemicTruther

Jun 21

Iran’s Fatal Overreliance on Western Tech: How Digital Surveillance Enabled Mossad’s Deadly Strikes on June 12 and before

1. A Preventable Intelligence Catastrophe

Iran’s security apparatus suffered a systemic failure—not due to a lack of warnings, but because of stubborn dependence on Western technology. The recent assassinations of at least ten nuclear scientists (nine in synchronized nighttime strikes, one shortly after) and multiple high-ranking Revolutionary Guard commanders were not just on-site Mossad asset operations; they were the culmination of years of digital espionage exploiting Iran’s technological vulnerabilities.

2. The Kill Chain: How Tracking Worked

Israel’s Unit 8200, its signals intelligence (SIGINT) division, had been monitoring these targets for over a decade, compiling detailed itineraries—homes, workplaces, travel routes, and even bedroom locations. The precision of Operation Namiya (June 2024) relied on a triple-layered surveillance ecosystem:

Apple Devices: Unencrypted iPhones provided real-time GPS tracking. General Soleimani’s 2020 assassination had already proven this vulnerability, yet Iranian officials continued using them.

Google/Microsoft Services: Gmail accounts, cloud backups, and Android devices leaked metadata, revealing behavioral patterns and social graphs.

Telecom Backdoors: Iran’s telecom infrastructure, built on Ericsson (which exited in 2012 under sanctions) and Nokia hardware, remained vulnerable. Huawei and ZTE briefly replaced Western vendors between 2012 and 2016, but by 2018, Iran resumed purchases from European suppliers—a fatal regression.

The most credible reconstruction suggests analysts in Unit 8200 used long-term GPS meter accuracy from the scientists’ iPhones and Android devices—tracking their precise home coordinates down to specific floors and apartments. Those coordinates were then fed directly into precision-guided munitions—drones or missiles—that struck the exact unit, often targeting individual windows. Photographs from Tehran following the attacks show damage consistent with single-apartment strikes, reinforcing reports of “incredible precision” that obliterated only the target’s flat while leaving adjacent units largely intact.

This level of surgical targeting strongly indicates a covert “kill‑chain” where digital tracking enabled pinpoint kinetic strikes—a chilling demonstration of how consumer devices can directly guide lethal weaponry.

Mossad didn’t even need extensive on-the-ground assets. As Edward Snowden revealed in 2013, the NSA—and by extension its partners like Mossad—could extract data from U.S. tech firms via surveillance programs like PRISM. European leaders were similarly targeted (e.g., Angela Merkel’s phone was tapped by U.S. intelligence in 2013). Given the CIA-Mossad intelligence pipeline, Iranian officials were effectively broadcasting their movements.

3. A Failure of Imagination

Iran’s leadership ignored glaring red flags:

Pager Attacks: Hezbollah’s 2023 experience with explosive-laden pagers should have triggered a purge of legacy Western tech across the Axis of Resistance.

Snowden’s Warnings: Since 2013, leaked documents proved no device with U.S. software or chip architecture was safe.

Operational Complacency: Senior scientists routinely used personal Gmail and iCloud accounts for sensitive communication. One Revolutionary Guard commander even synced field reconnaissance photos to a personal iCloud backup—an error that likely sealed his fate.

Despite mounting evidence, a nationwide ban on open-network consumer devices only came into effect on June 17, 2024—after the damage had been done. By then, Israel had already mapped Iran’s entire defense hierarchy through years of digital footprints.

4. Lessons for the Digital Age

No Hybrid Systems: Mixing Western consumer tech (iPhone/GPS) with critical infrastructure is suicidal.

Assume You’re Targeted: As Snowden showed, mass surveillance is the default—not the exception.

Use China’s Model: Huawei’s exclusion from Iran’s core networks (despite earlier cooperation) left it exposed.

Iran’s tragedy underscores a brutal truth: In modern warfare, your smartphone is a homing beacon. Those who ignore this pay in blood.

5. Iran’s Self-Sabotage: Rejecting Huawei/ZTE for an Illusory U.S. Détente

Between 2012 and 2016, Huawei and ZTE provided Iran with sanction-proof 4G networks, encrypted base stations, and secure routers—a rare window of digital sovereignty. But during its short-lived rapprochement with the Obama administration, Iran voluntarily submitted a list of sanctions violators—including Huawei and ZTE—in a misguided bid for international legitimacy.

By 2018, after Trump torpedoed the nuclear deal, Iran had a clear choice: pivot fully to Chinese systems or double down on European vendors. It chose the latter. According to a 2022 telecom audit by Iranian engineers, over 50% of Iran’s national network was back on Nokia/Ericsson hardware by 2020—just as Mossad escalated its surveillance operations.

Meanwhile, senior officials wrongly assumed using iPhones or Gmail for personal communication wouldn’t compromise state security. Unit 8200’s AI-driven monitoring system easily correlated private data—like Google location history and iCloud backups—with state-linked nuclear linked activities, effectively mapping the entire command structure.

The Lesson: Nations under siege cannot afford technological neutrality. China’s systems weren’t just an alternative—they were Iran’s only viable shield. By prioritizing short-term diplomacy over long-term security, Iran signed its own death warrant.

Read 6 tweets

America-China Watcher

@PandemicTruther

Jun 20

China’s Quiet Presence in the Gulf — Not So Innocent After All

I believe China is quietly preparing for potential involvement in an Israel-Iran war. Not because it wants to be seen as a battlefield superpower—China prefers the image of a builder, a stabilizer, an architect of infrastructure. But when its strategic energy lifelines are threatened, China acts. And this time, it might have no choice.

What will China’s involvement look like? Likely not boots on the ground or flashy aircraft carriers. It will be through the invisible electromagnetic grip on the Persian Gulf. We may be witnessing the quiet rollout of a new war doctrine in action.

President Trump has announced a two-week delay before deciding on U.S. military intervention in Iran. Sound familiar? It mirrors the tactic he used during the TikTok standoff: delay, stall, create uncertainty, nothing is done finally. But this time, China and Russia’s understated joint warning is clear—if the U.S. enters this war, they might not sit idly by.

And unlike Washington, China won’t arrive with fanfare. It will arrive with silence.

That silence is not new.

China has a history of issuing subtle but serious warnings—often ignored at great cost. Before the Korean War, Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai quietly warned U.S. General Douglas MacArthur not to cross the 38th parallel into North Korea. The U.S. dismissed it as an empty threat—and pushed north. In response, China sent in millions of troops, turning the tide of the war.

Likewise, during the Vietnam War, China warned the U.S. not to cross the 17th parallel into North Vietnam. This time, Washington obeyed. That restraint, many argue, contributed to the eventual collapse of American military goals in Vietnam.

It’s a pattern: when China issues a warning, it means business. And today, the signals are once again being sent—quietly.

For years, the U.S. has tried to provoke a proxy war with China—in the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and along the Indian border. The most recent example was the short Indo-Pakistan War, widely seen as a U.S.-backed effort to inflame the region. But China’s rapid weapons dominance and strategic pressure cut the war short in just three days. The result? A message was sent: don’t test Chinese superiority in the region.

In particular, the South China Sea remains stubbornly stable and peaceful despite repeated US proxies' provocations—not because there are no tensions, but because there is only one dominant military power. China has achieved electronic and military supremacy, and no country in the region or the United States dares to challenge it openly. In modern warfare, electronic dominance is no longer theoretical—it means absolute control. Everyone understands what electronic dominance implies in modern warfare.

This is not just about better weapons. It’s about a new form of war.

China’s doctrine isn’t based on brute force. It’s built on electromagnetic integration. A system where sensors, jammers, drones, radars, and command systems all talk to one another, creating an ecosystem of control. A system where you don’t see the missile—because your radar is blind. You don’t hear the fighter—because your comms are jammed. This is full-spectrum invisibility.

The West still prepares for conventional warfare—airstrikes, armored battalions, carrier groups. China prepares for an invisible war. One where aircraft fall from the sky without a single missile fired, their systems overwhelmed by invisible interference.

That’s the essence of modern electronic warfare (EW): dominance over data, signals, and perception.

Now step back and look at the facts.

China has quietly deployed two electronic reconnaissance ships to the Persian Gulf: the Type 855 and Type 815A. These aren’t warships in the traditional sense. They don’t fire weapons—they disrupt the electromagnetic environment. The 815A, a Dongdiao-class vessel, specializes in signals intelligence and electronic warfare. It casts electromagnetic nets, turning vast zones into radar black holes.

This isn’t speculation. We’ve seen similar effects already.

In the South China Sea:

Taiwanese and South Korean jets—F-5s, KF-16s, and even newer F-16Vs—have crashed under clear weather conditions.

In 2020, a South Korean F-5E slammed into a mountain.

In 2022, an F-4E exploded mid-air during landing.

Taiwan has suffered multiple unexplained F-16V crashes.

Each time, the excuses are the same: mechanical error, pilot stress, insufficient training. But the pattern is far too persistent to dismiss as coincidence.

Meanwhile, U.S. Navy officers have been quietly removed from command. The firing of the USS Theodore Roosevelt captain in 2020 was pinned on “leadership issues.” But many now wonder—was it actually a failure to detect or manage electronic warfare threats?

Then come the cargo deliveries.

China has landed three massive Y-20 military transport aircraft in Iran over recent months. These are not EW platforms themselves, but they are conjectured to carry advanced communications and electronic equipment. Their presence signals quiet preparation for war readiness.

Read 10 tweets

America-China Watcher

@PandemicTruther

Jun 19

Replicating Israel/US/NATO Psychological Warfare Doctrine

Iran's New Art of War: Breaking Israeli Morale—Just as Israel Has Tried to Do to Palestinians

What we're seeing between Iran and Israel right now isn't just an exchange of fire—it's a battle of endurance, morale, and ultimately, civilization. And Iran, despite being poorer and more isolated, has started to understand something critical: in modern warfare, it’s not the strongest military that wins. It’s the side that can hold on the longest without breaking.

Recent strikes have shown a clear shift in Iran’s strategy. Israel has so far been targeting military facilities, command posts, and suspected nuclear sites in Iran —standard doctrine. But Iran is doing something different lately. It's not aiming at fighter jets or barracks. Instead, it’s hitting power stations, refineries, water plants, and even wealthy residential buildings. On paper, that sounds random or even irrational. But in practice, it’s devastatingly effective.

This isn’t about scoring tactical victories. It’s about breaking a way of life.

Because Israelis are not Palestinians or Houthis. They are used to a certain standard of comfort: hot showers, air conditioning, stable electricity, peace at night. Remove those things—even temporarily—and you don’t just disrupt logistics; you unravel morale. You create a society where people can’t sleep through the night without sirens, can’t go to work or school because the roads are blocked, can’t cook a meal because the power is out. That’s not just inconvenience. That’s psychological warfare.

Call it the “art of war for the poor.”

Iran doesn’t have fifth-generation fighters or satellite-guided bombs in bulk. It can’t dominate the skies or the seas. But what it does have are thousands of mid-range missiles, often launched from half-destroyed bases, using improvised logistics and patchwork arsenals. And it’s learned to use them with precision—not to destroy armies, but to slowly erode an opponent’s morale.

What makes this strategy so effective is its rhythm. Iran isn't firing everything at once. It’s using small, frequent, multi-wave barrages—like mosquito bites. One or two don’t kill you. But day after day, with no sleep, no rest, no end in sight, even the strongest system starts to break down.

This approach forces Israel to keep its missile defense on high alert around the clock. Systems like Iron Dome and David’s Sling are impressive, but they’re also expensive and finite. Some of these interceptors are produced at a rate of only a few hundred per year. If Iran can force Israel to burn through that stockpile in weeks, it wins—without ever needing to land a single decisive blow.

Iran is not bombing military command centers—it’s hitting the soft underbelly of Israeli society: electricity grids, desalination plants, industrial infrastructure. These targets don’t make sensational headlines like nuclear sites do, but when the power goes out for three days, when there is no clean water, when the school can’t open, the country begins to wobble from within. All the while, there are hardly any civilian deaths.

It’s not that Iran can’t hit military bases. It’s that hitting them doesn’t accomplish much. Israel’s key bases are buried underground, protected by electronic countermeasures, and located in remote desert regions. Even a direct hit might just blow up a decoy or an empty hangar.

So why waste a missile on that?

Instead, Iran aims to make daily life in Israel feel unsafe, uncertain, and unsustainable. And with every civilian apartment struck, the global social media sphere rejoices—inevitably calling it “tit-for-tat,” or affirming “Iran has the right to defend itself.” This chips away at Israel’s moral high ground while giving Iran full moral legitimacy. Iran is the “resister.”

Meanwhile, Iran has begun rolling out newer, smarter missiles. The early waves were intercepted with ease. But now, Iranian rockets are pulling mid-air tricks: dropping altitude, changing speed, adjusting trajectory just before impact—behaviors that confuse radar and overwhelm interceptors. These are not the crude, homemade rockets of the past. Some are hypersonic. Some are decoys. Some fly erratically until the last second.

This is evolution in real time. And it’s working.

At least one missile, according to reports, landed alarmingly close to Netanyahu’s residence. That was a message: “We can reach you. And we’re not bluffing.”

Yes, Israel’s multi-layered missile defense system is still formidable. But even the best defense system runs on inventory. Ten interceptors a day? Fine. But fifty per day, for weeks?

That’s not sustainable.

Then there’s the factor of asymmetric costs. Iran’s genius lies in mixing cheap or fake missiles with real, effective ones: spending tens of thousands of dollars per missile to force Israel to spend millions. Israel can't intercept fake missiles with fake anti-missiles. Over time, this imbalance becomes fatal. And once you add cyberattacks that cause Israeli interceptors to misfire, drone swarms, and electronic jamming into the mix, the pressure multiplies.

Israel’s intercept rate has reportedly dropped from over 90% to as low as 60% in some areas. In a few cities, the system has broken down entirely. Not because it doesn’t work—but because it’s being overworked.

That’s when desperation sets in.

Now we’re hearing Israeli leaders threaten “indiscriminate retaliation” against Iranian civilian infrastructure. This is a clear sign of frustration—because their systems, their budgets, and their political capital are all wearing thin.

This war is no longer about military prowess. It’s about endurance.

Who collapses first?
Who runs out of missiles, spare parts, money, allies—or public support?

For Iran, this isn’t a war it needs to win. It only needs to hold on and not give in too soon. If it does, the country will melt down: its nuclear facilities, its military bases, even its regime stability will be gone entirely.

But Israel also can’t be allowed to lose. Not when the United States is watching. Not when the collapse of Tel Aviv could trigger a chain reaction in Taiwan or elsewhere, declaring the demise of U.S. hegemony.

That’s why this isn’t just a regional conflict. It’s part of a global test of nerves.

Missiles are just the opening act.
What follows is a contest of governance:
Can you keep your economy running under siege?
Can you control the narrative when your streets go dark?
Can you convince your people that hardship is worth enduring—for weeks, or months, or longer?

Iran is betting that the real war isn’t fought in the air—but in the living room, in the cold shower, in the silence of a night broken by sirens. It’s waging war on Israel’s sense of normalcy, on its faith in continuity, on its post-Holocaust promise of "never again"—not through genocide, but through constant, grinding, everyday anxiety.

And it’s important to say this plainly: Iran didn’t invent this form of warfare. It learned it—from Israel.

For decades, Israel has deployed this exact same strategy against Gaza. It has bombed civilian infrastructure: power stations, water treatment plants, schools, hospitals. It has cut electricity, destroyed desalination facilities, and deprived millions of Palestinians of clean water—all with the stated aim of “deterring” Hamas, but with the real consequence of breaking the morale of an entire population. This is psychological warfare—engineered deprivation and permanent crisis meant to destroy the Palestinians’ will to resist.

In fact, the U.S. and NATO used similar tactics in their war on Serbia in the 1990s. Civilian infrastructure was deliberately targeted—power grids, bridges, broadcasting stations—not to eliminate military capacity, but to paralyze daily life and crush public morale. The logic has always been the same: if you can’t win decisively on the battlefield, win by making life unlivable for your opponent’s population.

Now, for the first time, Israel is on the receiving end of the very method it helped normalize.

And yet, when Iran strikes a power plant or disrupts Israel’s grid, the Western press is quick to frame it as a barbaric assault on civilians. The double standard is glaring. When Israel bombards Gaza—flattens residential towers, strikes hospitals, wipes out entire neighborhoods—it is justified as “anti-terrorist precision deterrence.” But when Iran employs similar tactics in response to Israel's all-out strike, it is painted as terrorism.

But the Global South sees this for what it is. Across much of Asia, Africa, Latin America, and the Arab world—not to mention social media—sympathy overwhelmingly lies with Iran. Millions of people are watching this conflict unfold through a simple moral lens: why should Israel be spared the consequences of the very warfare it has inflicted on others?

To many outside the Western media bubble, this isn’t a case of unprovoked aggression—it’s a long-overdue reckoning. Iran, rightly or wrongly, is seen as giving Israel a taste of its own doctrine: the war on daily life, the assault on dignity, the campaign to collapse a people’s spirit.

But Israel? It’s defending not just a city or a base, but a psychological fortress built over decades: a fortress of technology, intelligence, and confidence that its enemies can’t touch it.

If that illusion breaks—even without losing a single square meter of land—then Israel loses.

No one knows how this ends, or who will blink first.

Iran must keep up the pressure.

Iran must use its famous Persian cunning against Israel—not against its allies like China, Russia, or Pakistan. Its very survival depends on it.

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America-China Watcher

@PandemicTruther

Jun 17

Will China Back Iran? The Answer Is Most Likely Yes — China is already doing it

— But Not Without a Cost

When Israeli missiles pierced the skies over Tehran in the early hours of June 12th, obliterating the Revolutionary Guard’s command center in a precision strike, Iran found itself stripped of illusions. And when it turned for help, it didn’t call Moscow. It reached for two phone lines: Beijing and Islamabad.

Within hours, Iran’s foreign minister was on the phone with China’s minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi. Soon after, Pakistan declared its support, and military aircraft were spotted entering Iranian airspace. The symbolism was stark: when the Islamic Republic felt existential threat, it turned to the East.

So — will China back Iran?

The answer is: most probably yes—and in some ways, it’s already happening. Iran’s recent missile strikes have become notably more precise, largely due to China granting it access to the Advanced BeiDou satellite navigation system. If Pakistan is visibly supporting Iran, it’s unlikely to be acting alone. China supplies most of Pakistan’s military hardware, and its logistical and technical backing is essential to any sustained Pakistani operation.

But before looking forward, we must first understand how strained the China–Iran relationship had become.

China’s support for Iran doesn’t stem from alliance, affinity, or ideological kinship. It’s not about brotherhood. Xi Jinping, as China’s leader and a figure of influence in the Global South, may personally see Israel’s actions as crossing fundamental lines of basic human decency—but that’s not the driving force here. China’s position is shaped by strategic consideration: energy security, the energy corridor, and the broader logic of the Belt and Road Initiative. Supporting Iran, for China, is not sentimental. It’s pragmatic—a rational stance toward a country that sits on a key geopolitical fault line of Eurasian infrastructure.

A Marriage of Convenience, Not Conviction

Recently China and Iran's relationship has been estranged. It wasn’t always this frosty. Back in 2021, China and Iran signed a sweeping 25-year strategic cooperation agreement worth about $400 billion — spanning energy, ports, finance, and even military training. It was hailed as Tehran’s pivot to the East, an exit ramp from sanctions and isolation. For a brief moment, it looked like Iran had chosen the China-Russia bloc.

But the ink had barely dried before Tehran’s behavior grew erratic. Projects were shelved, port cooperation at Chabahar stalled, solar equipment was seized by the IRGC, and in a twist that felt like a deliberate snub, Iran leased the same port to India — even as India was cozying up to the U.S. and preparing for confrontation with Pakistan.

Worse, just as India and Pakistan were on the brink of war, Iran signed a full-spectrum strategic agreement with New Delhi. No pretense of neutrality — just opportunism. Wherever the wind blew, Iran tilted. Its foreign policy became a study in hedging: foot in the East, heart in the West, eyes on the next buyer.

Anti-Americanism for Sale

What Iran seemed to have discovered was that, in a world divided by a U.S.–China cold war, its anti-American posture had value. Tehran’s liberals — the Western-leaning elite — saw an opportunity. While denouncing the China deal as a national sellout, they also tried to use their anti-U.S. position as a bargaining chip with China. The logic: “We’re useful to you — pay up.”

But here’s the contradiction: while posturing against the U.S., Tehran was simultaneously trying to mend ties with Washington and Europe, hoping to ease sanctions and attract Western investment. In effect, Iran tried to monetize its anti-Americanism while flirting with the West — a contradictory strategy that neither Washington nor Beijing found trustworthy.

China didn’t slam the door — it simply pulled away the table. The grand $400 billion plan was quietly frozen. In Beijing, Iran’s flip-flopping became a case study in “how not to do diplomacy.”

June 12: The Return of the Prodigal Ally

Then came Israel's deadly all-out strike. And suddenly, Tehran remembered its friends. But the most telling moment wasn’t the attack itself — it was who Tehran called first. It wasn't America, Europe, Russia. It wasn’t even the Arab world.

It was China. And Pakistan.

Not so long ago, Iran openly expressed support for India during its war with Pakistan. It was a clear signal of distance — Tehran did not want to be seen as a close ally of China, let alone as part of the China-Pakistan strategic axis.

That is the irony. For all the posturing, when the Iranian government feared collapse, its instincts turned East. Islamabad — despite having been previously humiliated by Iranian moves toward India — responded swiftly, signaling military readiness. Fighter jets entered Iranian skies.

So if Pakistan is backing Iran, then yes — China definitely is too. Not because of love, but because of necessity. Geography doesn’t lie. Iran sits at the crossroads of Eurasia, the vital node linking the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to the Persian Gulf, and ultimately, to Europe. If Iran falls, the entire southern flank of the Belt and Road unravels.

The Belt and Road is the revival of the vast commercial empire that China once was. It’s the global common ring of prosperity that China is trying to build.

Iran is key to the Belt Road initiative. If Iran falls, the Middle East will become the sole playground of US and Israel.

The Domino Risk

The nightmare scenario? A collapsed Iran triggering a domino effect: Israel follows up with strikes on Hezbollah and the Houthis; Syria descends further into chaos; U.S. fleets return to the Persian Gulf; Saudi and the UAE flip fully West; India uses the vacuum to advance its IMEC corridor, bypassing Pakistan altogether.

And suddenly, China’s entire energy lifeline — its access to the Middle East, Africa, and Europe — is choked off.

That’s not conspiracy. It’s a scenario already modeled by U.S. think tanks and put into action.

Russia is bogged down in Ukraine. If Iran becomes the second domino to fall, China finds itself the last wall standing — alone.

Given the geopolitical reality, China has little choice but to back Iran—if it wants to avoid being strangled by the tightening grip of the U.S. chokehold.

Why China Remains Cautious

But Beijing hasn’t forgotten Iran’s pattern of betrayal.

Despite years of diplomatic lip service, the 25-year agreement has gone nowhere. RMB settlements still lag below 40%, compared to over 90% with Russia. Military deals? Tehran went shopping in Moscow instead — buying Su-35s and S-300s, deliberately sidelining Chinese defense industries.

China doesn’t forget humiliation. Nor does it reward unpredictability.

The Problem Isn’t the Foreign Ministry — It’s the Regime

At the heart of the issue isn’t Iran’s diplomats. It’s Iran’s system. A theocracy cloaked in revolutionary nostalgia, still run by a clergy with Cold War instincts and no consistent foreign policy line.

While Hezbollah and Hamas bleed on the front lines, Tehran dithers. While others die, it negotiates. While the region burns, it whispers to the Americans — "ease sanctions."

That’s why even China keeps a cold distance. It’s not that Tehran doesn’t resist the West — it’s that it resists consistency.

And even more damning: the Iranian people themselves are no longer believers in the system. They wear Zara, stream Western music, protest in the streets, and — in a bitter twist — some even held signs thanking Israel the day of the attack. The regime is losing its base.

What China Wants from Iran

China doesn’t need a “wolf warrior” ally in the Gulf. It needs a bridge.

The purpose of the 25-year deal was simple: turn Iran into a stable anchor for the Belt and Road’s southern corridor. The North is frozen in Ukraine. The Central route is politically fragile. The South — through Pakistan, Iran, to the Mediterranean — is essential.

But for that to happen, Iran has to stabilize. Not just militarily. But Politically. Institutionally.

Beijing’s Message: Stop the Games

So what would it take for China to truly return? After the war, China would likely request a reset:

1. Restore the 25-year agreement — not in rhetoric, but in action.

2. Return port projects to China — including Chabahar.

3. Settle trade in RMB — at scale.

4. Signal strategic alignment — no more jumping between camps.

Because if Iran is serious, China may still open the door. But it will not tolerate a partner that signs deals in the East while flirting with enemies in the West.

China is not America. It doesn’t demand allegiance. But it does expect consistency.

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America-China Watcher

@PandemicTruther

Jun 13

🧵A plausible conjecture on what caused the AI171 catastrophe: How Boeing’s Dreamliner became a nightmare due to algorithm failure. (1/12)

On June 12, 2025, Air India Flight AI171 crashed minutes after takeoff from Ahmedabad.

It slammed into a medical college hostel.

241 lives were lost.
Over two dozen more died on the ground.

This was the first fatal crash of a Boeing 787 Dreamliner.
#AI171 #BoeingCrisis

2/12
Initial theories blamed pilot error.

But video footage tells a different story.

The plane had engine power. It had basic control.

But it couldn’t climb. It simply staggered into the air, then fell.

This wasn’t a human mistake.
It was a system failure.
#AirIndiaCrash #Boeing787

3/12
When it was unveiled, the Boeing 787 Dreamliner was hailed as the crown jewel of American engineering—a bold leap into the future of aviation.

It was the first commercial jetliner to feature a carbon-fiber composite fuselage, electrified systems, and unprecedented fuel efficiency.

It wasn’t just an airplane—it was a national symbol.
But it became a Titanic of the skies.

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