The US has bombed Fordow. It has very likely used enough force to significantly damage, if not destroy, the enrichment facility.
We likely won't know for quite some time. It's possible we may never know, as that will be a big part of Iran's response. 1/
We likely won't know for quite some time. It's possible we may never know, as that will be a big part of Iran's response. 1/
Iran is sure to respond to this attack. To do nothing would be a colossal blow to the regime's credibility. There will be a short-term response.
But the bigger response, the more significant one, is likely to play out on the nuclear file. 2/
But the bigger response, the more significant one, is likely to play out on the nuclear file. 2/
Trump wants this to be the end. And perhaps it is--for him.
If the US dodges a large-scale escalation, Trump can claim to have destroyed Iran's nuclear program. He will claim a historic win. He'll end his term with this feather in his cap.
But the Iranians will rebuild. 3/
If the US dodges a large-scale escalation, Trump can claim to have destroyed Iran's nuclear program. He will claim a historic win. He'll end his term with this feather in his cap.
But the Iranians will rebuild. 3/
They have said they will do this. It seems very likely. And *how* they rebuild will matter.
The statement from the AEOI, which is still the only real reaction we've seen from Iran, was focused on Iran's relationship with the IAEA.
This could be the first part of an NPT exit. 4/
The statement from the AEOI, which is still the only real reaction we've seen from Iran, was focused on Iran's relationship with the IAEA.
This could be the first part of an NPT exit. 4/
If Iran leaves the NPT, that's probably the end of nuclear diplomacy for a while. There goes hope for sanctions relief.
It also likely means the program could pursue weaponization, away from IAEA observation. It won't be public. We won't know for sure. 5/
It also likely means the program could pursue weaponization, away from IAEA observation. It won't be public. We won't know for sure. 5/
That means the issue of Iran's nuclear program could now be (slowly) entering a much more dangerous phase.
Rebuilding will take time. First order priority is surviving this war. But there will be a chorus of voices clamoring for a nuclear deterrent when this is done. End 6/
Rebuilding will take time. First order priority is surviving this war. But there will be a chorus of voices clamoring for a nuclear deterrent when this is done. End 6/
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