Thread by @gregbagwell

Ok, I’m going to say it. This was somewhat over complicated, and looks more like the perfect execution of the plan they would had prepared assuming that it was a US pre-emptive strike and that they were the first ones in.🧵1/8

2/ But, over a week of Israeli strikes has brought the Iranian defence network to its knees, and their Air Force have been able to operate even 4th generation aircraft overhead Iran with impunity. Air supremacy is a tough state to achieve but it has been over Iran.

3/ The deception feint of the Pacific route seems more of a political stunt than a military tactic, especially as it mirrored & signposted the very nature and timing of the attack it was meant to mask. It also used up precious strike power and tankers. But a nice option to have!

4/ The significant screen package would have been justified if the IADS (Integrated Air Defence System) was functioning, but that has long been neutered by Israel’s actions. There would have been a challenging risk vs reward calculation based on the need to keep US pilots safe.

5/ The use of 4th and 5th generation escorts and sweep would have alerted any defences, so it’s an interesting tactic for what was essentially a B2 strike mission. But all that said and done it was executed flawlessly with a 100% hit rate - not bad for a 40 hour round trip!

6/ The big question now is was it enough and what has it done to reverse or cease Iran’s nuclear ambition? Nobody else could have carried out such a mission and it will be studied as deeply as the recent Israeli strikes. And the two nations’ fighting styles contrast nicely.

7/ The Israelis overcame mass by using innovative tactics and a very aggressive attitude to risk. The US have thrown their considerable mass at the problem, with effort to spare. With decoys, and 2 x Carrier groups not even used, they had plenty of spare capacity.

8/ What can the UK learn? We may want to emulate Israel more than the US due to our scale and budget. But a long range penetration capability gives you political choices that nothing else short of nuclear strikes can. Those looking to Ukraine for lessons may need to glance South.