The last few days have seen some in the UK political and media world turn themselves inside & out over decisions related to a single drone strike at RAF Akrotiri. Any sense of proportion and balance has been lost in the frenzy that has followed. So, let’s step back a bit 🧵1/15
2/ Firstly, let’s admit that our defences against the full range of threats that the UK now faces is not where it should be. The SDR made that clear and we have known for some time. But we are not alone in this plight, even the US & Israel have shown vulnerabilities.

Did we defend Akrotiri enough? Akrotiri is a critical hub for the UK in the eastern Mediterranean. It has been a key logistics base for supporting operations further East, and as an operational hub for operations in its own right. It’s not much of a secret what it does.🧵1/13

2/ But the US threat of war against Iran had raised threat levels in the region. It’s not clear how much notice we got of the start of hostilities, but we had already reinforced the base a month previously with Typhoons and F35Bs & some ground based elements too…

Trump thought he held all the cards, but has come up against an opponent who either can’t or doesn’t know how to fold & has no intention of doing so. The US strategy appears to hinge on a swift capitulation; Israel having pushed America to war is now happy to tuck in behind. 1/5 2/ The signs are not good, despite the incredible onslaught being unleashed on Iran. Public opinion is low, fear in the region is widespread, and the previously infallible defence systems that intercept missiles and drones are proving fallible and in short supply.

Gibraltar is in the news; so here’s a quick geography lesson for those who may not understand the challenge that Brexit put on this tiny British Overseas Territory. The border crossing into Spain is critical for so many livelihoods and is key to the agreement just reached. 🧵1/8 2/ Gibraltar is really tiny, it covers approximately 6.8 square kilometers (about 2.6 square miles). It is roughly 5 km (3 miles) long and 1.2 km (0.75 mile) wide. The rock dominates the land mass and is 426m high. But let’s focus on the border…

To all those who were so quick to give Donald Trump a free pass on Iranian strikes yesterday, it turns out that things weren’t quite as rosy as they seem. What have you not yet learned about the Trump Administration? 🧵1/6wsj.com/politics/natio… 2/ Fortunately, there are still experienced and principled officers prepared to speak truth to power. There is now clearly a mis-match between the military and political aims, and the means by which to deliver them. MIDNIGHT HAMMER was impressive but limited in its aims.

An in depth, insider view of the story behind the Chagos deal. It’s paywalled so I will do my best to summarise: The “deal” is more important and valuable than many people will ever understand (or be allowed to). It gives the US a vital base and we get so much more in return.

https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/2025471229910552758

2/ It is part of the “great game” with China, and locks Mauritius into a dependency on us that makes the islands more secure as a base. The “deal” was considered the only SAFE and GUARANTEED way to retain access and use in the longer term by both US and UK diplomats.

To all Chagos fans out there who think the Government is mad, the deal is crap and we should just carry on regardless. Here’s why the status quo won’t work (for long). In the eyes of the UN we are holding the islands illegally and have been asked nicely to give them back.🧵1/5 2/ If we ignore the UN they will no longer continue to recognise our sovereignty over the islands, as per the original agreement from 1966. This will leave us in a legal limbo no matter how determined we are to hold on. That means 2 things will happen:treaties.un.org/doc/Publicatio…

Some facts (seeing as they are in short supply) about the new agreement with Mauritius over our military use of Diego Garcia. They are actually contained in the Annex so not many will have read them. But here is the entire 37 page document: 🧵1/6assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/682f25af… 2/ The first thing to note is that it is only 37 well spaced out pages - has it really taken America this long to work out what’s in it and still change their mind twice about it? Let’s look at the relevant pages about the conduct of military operations (pages 13 & top of 14):

In the current climate, I would go as far as to call this treasonous…

https://twitter.com/politicoeurope/status/2024883498893344867

Let me expand: two former PMs, no matter how flawed their own tenures, carry the gravitas and weight of the Office long after they leave it - that confers on them a unique responsibility to act carefully - especially on matters of National importance or significance. 🧵1/7

1/10 Here’s a handy thread about NATO funding that may prove useful when confronted by an innumerate American, who thinks Europe owes them a refund. NATO has two principal means of funding: Direct and Indirect. nato.int/en/what-we-do/… 2/10 Direct funding pays for common NATO budgets. It amounts to c$4Bn and is shared out using an agreed formula based around gross national income. The US pays a 16% share as does Germany, other notables are: France & UK 10%, Italy 8%, Spain & Canada 6%. usafacts.org/articles/what-…

The UK’s F-35s are under the microscope. But you need to cast your mind back to the 1998 SDR when the Joint Combat Aircraft (JCA) programme was formally announced alongside the decision to build two new aircraft carriers. But in the noise a few facts are forgotten. A JCA 🧵1/10 2/ The F-35 debate often centres around the Carriers and its Air Wing, but the letter J in JCA is often ignored. So what was around in 1998, and what was being replaced. Well the 2 x Invincible class Carriers were being replaced by 2 x much larger QEC class - the good news. But…

In a recent interview with @MishalHusain for @business, Nigel Farage, in trying to play down his Russian links, referred to his speech in the European Parliament where he predicted war with Russia. Seeing as he brought it up its worth a closer look.🧵1/5 2/ He spoke in Sept 14, seven months after Russia annexed Crimea. But, he appears to be predicting a war with NATO rather than an invasion of Ukraine - an important distinction. This of course has been a consistent Kremlin line to try and warn off any NATO assistance in Ukraine.

As Nathan Gill’s sentencing date approaches for bribery by Russian agents when serving as an elected MEP, it’s worth noting that he wasn’t the then BREXIT party’s only link to Russia. So, the question is how much further did it go? 🧵1/17
2/ Gill has admitted 8 counts of bribery between 6/12/18 and 18/07/19. He was handled by Oleg Voloshyn, although his wife Nadia Sass (aka Borodi) was never far away. They both worked on behalf of Ukrainian pro-Russian politician Viktor Medvedchuk, a personal friend of Putin.

The UK’s Carrier Strike Group is about to conduct a transit of the South China Sea after its time in Japan. It now finds itself having to manage a complex and changing diplomatic context. Is this crunch time for UK strategy & credibility in the region? - a🧵1/8
2/ The S. China Sea is a contested region because of China’s claim of a wider EEZ, demarked by the so-called 9-Dash line, and their “designs” on Taiwan. Their actions around Taiwan, in particular, are increasingly active, hostile and encroaching.

A stark appraisal of the state of the RN. But we must be wary of playing victim here and learn lessons as to what a Service must do to thrive . Because the underlying issues identified here are not unique to the RN. Let’s explore where and how it can and does go wrong: 🧵1/18

https://twitter.com/navylookout/status/1954801913226011075

2/ OVER- AMBITION: is a killer, it’s ok to have a vision or aspiration, but if your plans exceed your budget you have no margin of safety. And the first clue that it’s not going to work is when you start fitting “for and not with”, because you can only afford the former.

There is a lot of commentary on this rather alarming video of a fly past that very nearly had a tragic ending. Lots of theories out there - here’s mine! I’ll use snapshots from the second video to explain what I think happened. Spoiler alert: I think it was pilot error.🧵1/7

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1949714931336556886

2/ An EF-18 of the Spanish Air Force was performing at the Gijón Air Festival held on Sunday July 27 over San Lorenzo Bay in Asturias, Spain: it’s not clear if it was meant to be a full display or an “enthusiastic” flypast - I suspect the latter. festivalaereogijon.com/#programa

The lessons from the Israel/Iran“12 Day War” are far more profound and relevant to us in the UK than those learned in Ukraine.🧵1/n warontherocks.com/2025/07/lesson… 2/ “It not only reaffirmed the continuing relevance of conventional capabilities but also underlined the importance of cyber integration, information dominance, strategic precision, and alliance cooperation in 21st-century conflict scenarios.”

There has been plenty of heat and light surrounding the recent act of sabotage at Brize Norton. Let’s unpick some of the facts and add some thoughts. 🧵1/15telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/06/2… 2/ As usual, everyone focusses on the things they can see. Airfield perimeters are very hard to make impervious, which is why we have defence in layers. I’m not going to discuss those layers here, but it’s possible that some were either not in place or failed at Brize Norton.

Ok, I’m going to say it. This was somewhat over complicated, and looks more like the perfect execution of the plan they would had prepared assuming that it was a US pre-emptive strike and that they were the first ones in.🧵1/8 2/ But, over a week of Israeli strikes has brought the Iranian defence network to its knees, and their Air Force have been able to operate even 4th generation aircraft overhead Iran with impunity. Air supremacy is a tough state to achieve but it has been over Iran.

A very complex and fatiguing mission that resulted in 7 x B2s dropping 2 x GBU-57 MOP bombs each on the two primary nuclear sites of Fordo and Natanz, with Isfahan being struck by at least 24 submarine launched TLAMs (Tomahawk missiles).🧵1/7

https://twitter.com/Osint613/status/1936766423533060316

2/ The B2s launched overtly into the Pacific yesterday were a deception (but it is not clear what that achieved, other than reducing the size of the actual bomber force). The real strike package flew across the Atlantic, and joined up with fighter aircraft already in the region.

A few guesses (leaks?) ahead of next weeks’ release of the long awaited UK Defence Review👇. So what can we expect and what should we look out for? 🧵1/18

2/ The budget is set: 2.5% rising to 3% by next Parliament (Healey says 2034). And there are rumours of a future 3.5% target for NATO nations. Whilst 2.5% will probably only paper over the cracks, the higher %s will depend on National economic performance and HMT good will.