Greg Bagwell Profile picture
Former RAF Senior Commander, President “UK Air & Space Power Association”. RUSI Distinguished Fellow. All views expressed are strictly in a personal capacity.
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Oct 18 5 tweets 3 min read
In a recent interview with @MishalHusain for @business, Nigel Farage, in trying to play down his Russian links, referred to his speech in the European Parliament where he predicted war with Russia. Seeing as he brought it up its worth a closer look.🧵1/5 2/ He spoke in Sept 14, seven months after Russia annexed Crimea. But, he appears to be predicting a war with NATO rather than an invasion of Ukraine - an important distinction. This of course has been a consistent Kremlin line to try and warn off any NATO assistance in Ukraine.
Oct 16 18 tweets 7 min read
As Nathan Gill’s sentencing date approaches for bribery by Russian agents when serving as an elected MEP, it’s worth noting that he wasn’t the then BREXIT party’s only link to Russia. So, the question is how much further did it go? 🧵1/17 Image
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2/ Gill has admitted 8 counts of bribery between 6/12/18 and 18/07/19. He was handled by Oleg Voloshyn, although his wife Nadia Sass (aka Borodi) was never far away. They both worked on behalf of Ukrainian pro-Russian politician Viktor Medvedchuk, a personal friend of Putin. Image
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Sep 3 8 tweets 5 min read
The UK’s Carrier Strike Group is about to conduct a transit of the South China Sea after its time in Japan. It now finds itself having to manage a complex and changing diplomatic context. Is this crunch time for UK strategy & credibility in the region? - a🧵1/8 Image
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2/ The S. China Sea is a contested region because of China’s claim of a wider EEZ, demarked by the so-called 9-Dash line, and their “designs” on Taiwan. Their actions around Taiwan, in particular, are increasingly active, hostile and encroaching. Image
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Aug 12 18 tweets 5 min read
A stark appraisal of the state of the RN. But we must be wary of playing victim here and learn lessons as to what a Service must do to thrive . Because the underlying issues identified here are not unique to the RN. Let’s explore where and how it can and does go wrong: 🧵1/18 2/ OVER- AMBITION: is a killer, it’s ok to have a vision or aspiration, but if your plans exceed your budget you have no margin of safety. And the first clue that it’s not going to work is when you start fitting “for and not with”, because you can only afford the former. Image
Jul 28 11 tweets 5 min read
There is a lot of commentary on this rather alarming video of a fly past that very nearly had a tragic ending. Lots of theories out there - here’s mine! I’ll use snapshots from the second video to explain what I think happened. Spoiler alert: I think it was pilot error.🧵1/7 2/ An EF-18 of the Spanish Air Force was performing at the Gijón Air Festival held on Sunday July 27 over San Lorenzo Bay in Asturias, Spain: it’s not clear if it was meant to be a full display or an “enthusiastic” flypast - I suspect the latter. festivalaereogijon.com/#programaImage
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Jul 21 5 tweets 1 min read
The lessons from the Israel/Iran“12 Day War” are far more profound and relevant to us in the UK than those learned in Ukraine.🧵1/n warontherocks.com/2025/07/lesson… 2/ “It not only reaffirmed the continuing relevance of conventional capabilities but also underlined the importance of cyber integration, information dominance, strategic precision, and alliance cooperation in 21st-century conflict scenarios.”
Jun 23 15 tweets 4 min read
There has been plenty of heat and light surrounding the recent act of sabotage at Brize Norton. Let’s unpick some of the facts and add some thoughts. 🧵1/15telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/06/2… 2/ As usual, everyone focusses on the things they can see. Airfield perimeters are very hard to make impervious, which is why we have defence in layers. I’m not going to discuss those layers here, but it’s possible that some were either not in place or failed at Brize Norton.
Jun 23 8 tweets 2 min read
Ok, I’m going to say it. This was somewhat over complicated, and looks more like the perfect execution of the plan they would had prepared assuming that it was a US pre-emptive strike and that they were the first ones in.🧵1/8 Image 2/ But, over a week of Israeli strikes has brought the Iranian defence network to its knees, and their Air Force have been able to operate even 4th generation aircraft overhead Iran with impunity. Air supremacy is a tough state to achieve but it has been over Iran.
Jun 22 7 tweets 3 min read
A very complex and fatiguing mission that resulted in 7 x B2s dropping 2 x GBU-57 MOP bombs each on the two primary nuclear sites of Fordo and Natanz, with Isfahan being struck by at least 24 submarine launched TLAMs (Tomahawk missiles).🧵1/7 2/ The B2s launched overtly into the Pacific yesterday were a deception (but it is not clear what that achieved, other than reducing the size of the actual bomber force). The real strike package flew across the Atlantic, and joined up with fighter aircraft already in the region. Image
May 31 18 tweets 4 min read
A few guesses (leaks?) ahead of next weeks’ release of the long awaited UK Defence Review👇. So what can we expect and what should we look out for? 🧵1/18 Image
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2/ The budget is set: 2.5% rising to 3% by next Parliament (Healey says 2034). And there are rumours of a future 3.5% target for NATO nations. Whilst 2.5% will probably only paper over the cracks, the higher %s will depend on National economic performance and HMT good will.
May 10 20 tweets 6 min read
Does the UK have a Defence Strategy problem? All we ever hear these days is that our Defence is underfunded, overspent, gapped & overstretched. So what can the 2025 review do to fix it, because we already know what the budget is. 🧵1/20 2/ The fundamental truth is that over the last few decades we have spent less & delivered even less, yet our ambition of global reach and influence has hardly wavered. Previous reviews have singularly failed to bridge this gap, whilst many plead for money we just don’t have. Image
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May 2 10 tweets 4 min read
The @RoyalAirForce presents its first Autonomous Collaborative Platform (ACP) - “Stormshroud”. 🧵1/7raf.mod.uk/news/articles/… 2/ Also known as Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) or Loyal Wingmen, this is a combination of the Tekever AR3 drone tekever.com/models/ar3/ and Leonardo’s Britestorm electronic warfare payload uk.leonardo.com/en/britestorm
Apr 10 21 tweets 4 min read
There has been a lot of fuss made recently about combat aircraft numbers in the UK. I think that aircraft fleet management is worth a thread to try and explain how it works, and why just focussing on the numbers ordered, bought and delivered is only part of the story.🧵1/20 2/ Aircraft have some important characteristics that make them rather unique. The most critical is their “fatigue life”, which is a function of activity cycles that eventually weaken an aircraft to its cleared limit or life - extending that is rarely an option.
Apr 9 13 tweets 6 min read
In case you didn’t know, it’s the SDR silly season in the UK. There have been a few stories recently about our combat aircraft - how many, who owns them and what type? This one tries a whole new approach by trying to rehash the SDR of 15 years ago. A “Where do I Start” 🧵1/13 Image 2/ The article takes the premises of: (A) a combat air shortfall exists, and (B) the Carrier strike capability must be preserved. I agree wholeheartedly on the former point, but looking at the problem solely through the lens of the Carriers skews and limits the airpower aspects. Image
Mar 28 11 tweets 5 min read
The #SignalGate charge sheet is not restricted to one individual:

WALTZ - mistakenly admitted the journalist.

HEGSETH - released TOP SECRET data by inappropriate means.

GABBARD - denied under oath any classified data had been released.

A “who should carry the can” 🧵1/10 Image 2/ Multiple others carry varying degrees of culpability, by either condoning the release at the time or denying it subsequently. The deflection attempts are focussing on the journalist or the definition of war plans - these are irrelevant to the fundamental argument. Image
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Mar 27 4 tweets 2 min read
There is a slight twist to the #signalgate scandal. The USN and USMC have always preferred the probe and drogue method of air refuelling. Because the USAF prefers the boom method, UK tankers spend quite a bit of time refuelling USN & USMC aircraft. 🧵1/4 Image 2/ It looks like the UK may have been providing fuel to the US strikes against Houthi targets. This is not new, we have participated in strikes in the past. But this mission was in the context of a breach in National Security, that also included statements denigrating Europe. Image
Mar 26 16 tweets 4 min read
A thread on Classified Information - its handling, and why it matters 1/15 Image 1/ Nations have secrets - they can be about their own vulnerabilities or those of potential enemies. They can be used to protect sensitive technology or information that confer an advantage. They can be about plans to take certain actions.
Mar 25 4 tweets 2 min read
Here is a recent NSA OPSEC BULLETIN warning of the vulnerability of the SIGNAL application. The NSA works to the DNI (Tulsi Gabbard) who was on the SIGNAL thread. But there are a couple of other things to note here: A Classification 🧵1/4 Image 2/ Note that in the header of the document there is a standardised classification heading which tells the reader exactly what the classification is and, therefore, how to handle the document and its details. Image
Mar 25 7 tweets 3 min read
The #SignalGate episode is far, far more serious than the US administration is trying to suggest. It is not just a question of Mike Waltz making a “mistake” by accidentally including a journalist. They should never have been using the medium for the purpose they did.🧵1/6 Image
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2/ The level of information that was posted appears to amount to at least Secret (targets, times and weapons ahead of a strike), but some may possibly be even higher than that (CIA Operative names). These are clear breaches if true, and everyone involved should have known that.
Mar 5 10 tweets 4 min read
Europe has some serious thinking and acting to do about the medium to long term. But what can it do in the short-term that could make a difference in Ukraine? It’s time for a No Fly Zone thread: how one could work and why it might help 🧵1/10 Image 2/ First let’s make some assumptions: 1) the US will not expend any military effort pre or post peace; 2) any peace will need a degree of air control to monitor and deter; 3) peace could take some time to be negotiated and Ukraine needs assistance/reassurance during that period.
Feb 24 12 tweets 3 min read
As I see it, NATO/European Defence has four strategic options in light of recent events. They cannot be separated from the situation in Ukraine, which is fundamental to European security. So what are they? 🧵1/12 Image 2/ Option 1 - Hold our nerve & stay as we are in the belief that the US will see sense and adjust their views on Europe, Ukraine & Russia. I think we are too far gone to take this choice and I can’t believe I’m seeing and saying that! Score 3/10