Some thoughts on the Combat Search & Rescue Mission (CSAR) today over Iran. Normally, these would be highly sensitive, but in today’s connected world that ship has well and truly sailed. But, as we await official confirmation, I will be guarded in what I say. 🧵1/11 2/ The CSAR mission is extremely well resourced in the USAF, and is conducted with units from within Air Combat Command (ACC) and Air Force Special Operations Command (AFSOC). It is well practiced by all aircrew and is a key part of any mission brief.

A fascinating insider insight into the White House conduct of the EPIC FURY Campaign
“history also suggests there can be worse outcomes for a President who takes the nation to war than losing an election.” 🧵1/10 time.com/article/2026/0… 2/ Trump’s confusing and somewhat lacklustre address on 1 April is explained by the increasing realisation of the situation and the narrowing of the window of success. Iran’s resistance has been tougher and longer than expected, and Trump has been sold a rosy version of events.

Seeing as airbases under attack are now in the news, here’s a thread about how we used to defend them in the Cold War, when an attack was just 15 minutes away and we expected the Warsaw Pact to throw everything they had at us. 🧵1/12 2/ RAF Bruggen was completed in 1953, and as the Cold War heated up it was designed and run as a fortress. One Station Commander added the infamous sign at the gate: “THE TASK OF THIS STATION IN TIME OF PEACE IS TO PREPARE FOR WAR. DON'T YOU FORGET IT.”

So, two things happened today that add a lot more detail about the path to war in Iran. And neither of them suggest that it was justified or legal. Legality is rightly a fundamental constraint for the military, even when asked to do a politically expedient thing. 🧵1/7
2/ The first insight came from an insiders view of the Nuclear talks between Iran and the US. We have heard from other sources that they were going better than we have subsequently been led to believe, and we also know that the US team was poorly prepared & supported.

Trump fails to attract any support, why?

Firstly, most allies are pretty upset with the way he has attacked Iran, without any consultation or preparation of his case for doing so.

Second, the war appears to have not been planned with the current deterioration in mind. 🧵1/4 2/ Third, there is no coherent end state for the War.

Fourth, there is no clear path to how the war finishes.

Fifth, we are yet to see a plan to open the Straits, so we cannot gauge the risks.

Sixth, even the USN has not ventured through the Straits - hardly reassuring.

Trump is desperately seeking an off ramp in Iran, where he can both claim victory and reduce US effort. He has decimated Iran’s missiles and Navy, but other objectives, such as Iran’s nuclear capability, remain elusive. But the
Oil situation is now forcing his hand.🧵1/10
2/ His limited attacks on Kharg Island and the mobilisation of a Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) are intended to send a signal to Iran that the US can and will escalate, but both gestures seem hollow. The Straits of Hormuz remain the key issue and most knew they always would.

The last few days have seen some in the UK political and media world turn themselves inside & out over decisions related to a single drone strike at RAF Akrotiri. Any sense of proportion and balance has been lost in the frenzy that has followed. So, let’s step back a bit 🧵1/15
2/ Firstly, let’s admit that our defences against the full range of threats that the UK now faces is not where it should be. The SDR made that clear and we have known for some time. But we are not alone in this plight, even the US & Israel have shown vulnerabilities.

Some are putting out a story that Sir Rich Knighton (CDS) should resign over recent events in Cyprus. Some say he’s lost the confidence of the PM, some say an RAF officer can’t appreciate the Navy’s capability and some say he is not a warfighter. Let’s address each in turn: 1/12 2/ The UK Armed Forces, under his leadership, has had to prepare for and respond to some extraordinary circumstances in the Middle East. All whilst continuing to support Ukraine and meet National and NATO tasking. They have hardly skipped a beat, and have met every task superbly.

Did we defend Akrotiri enough? Akrotiri is a critical hub for the UK in the eastern Mediterranean. It has been a key logistics base for supporting operations further East, and as an operational hub for operations in its own right. It’s not much of a secret what it does.🧵1/13

2/ But the US threat of war against Iran had raised threat levels in the region. It’s not clear how much notice we got of the start of hostilities, but we had already reinforced the base a month previously with Typhoons and F35Bs & some ground based elements too…

Trump thought he held all the cards, but has come up against an opponent who either can’t or doesn’t know how to fold & has no intention of doing so. The US strategy appears to hinge on a swift capitulation; Israel having pushed America to war is now happy to tuck in behind. 1/5 2/ The signs are not good, despite the incredible onslaught being unleashed on Iran. Public opinion is low, fear in the region is widespread, and the previously infallible defence systems that intercept missiles and drones are proving fallible and in short supply.

Gibraltar is in the news; so here’s a quick geography lesson for those who may not understand the challenge that Brexit put on this tiny British Overseas Territory. The border crossing into Spain is critical for so many livelihoods and is key to the agreement just reached. 🧵1/8 2/ Gibraltar is really tiny, it covers approximately 6.8 square kilometers (about 2.6 square miles). It is roughly 5 km (3 miles) long and 1.2 km (0.75 mile) wide. The rock dominates the land mass and is 426m high. But let’s focus on the border…

To all those who were so quick to give Donald Trump a free pass on Iranian strikes yesterday, it turns out that things weren’t quite as rosy as they seem. What have you not yet learned about the Trump Administration? 🧵1/6wsj.com/politics/natio… 2/ Fortunately, there are still experienced and principled officers prepared to speak truth to power. There is now clearly a mis-match between the military and political aims, and the means by which to deliver them. MIDNIGHT HAMMER was impressive but limited in its aims.

An in depth, insider view of the story behind the Chagos deal. It’s paywalled so I will do my best to summarise: The “deal” is more important and valuable than many people will ever understand (or be allowed to). It gives the US a vital base and we get so much more in return.

https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/2025471229910552758

2/ It is part of the “great game” with China, and locks Mauritius into a dependency on us that makes the islands more secure as a base. The “deal” was considered the only SAFE and GUARANTEED way to retain access and use in the longer term by both US and UK diplomats.

To all Chagos fans out there who think the Government is mad, the deal is crap and we should just carry on regardless. Here’s why the status quo won’t work (for long). In the eyes of the UN we are holding the islands illegally and have been asked nicely to give them back.🧵1/5 2/ If we ignore the UN they will no longer continue to recognise our sovereignty over the islands, as per the original agreement from 1966. This will leave us in a legal limbo no matter how determined we are to hold on. That means 2 things will happen:treaties.un.org/doc/Publicatio…

Some facts (seeing as they are in short supply) about the new agreement with Mauritius over our military use of Diego Garcia. They are actually contained in the Annex so not many will have read them. But here is the entire 37 page document: 🧵1/6assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/682f25af… 2/ The first thing to note is that it is only 37 well spaced out pages - has it really taken America this long to work out what’s in it and still change their mind twice about it? Let’s look at the relevant pages about the conduct of military operations (pages 13 & top of 14):

In the current climate, I would go as far as to call this treasonous…

https://twitter.com/politicoeurope/status/2024883498893344867

Let me expand: two former PMs, no matter how flawed their own tenures, carry the gravitas and weight of the Office long after they leave it - that confers on them a unique responsibility to act carefully - especially on matters of National importance or significance. 🧵1/7

1/10 Here’s a handy thread about NATO funding that may prove useful when confronted by an innumerate American, who thinks Europe owes them a refund. NATO has two principal means of funding: Direct and Indirect. nato.int/en/what-we-do/… 2/10 Direct funding pays for common NATO budgets. It amounts to c$4Bn and is shared out using an agreed formula based around gross national income. The US pays a 16% share as does Germany, other notables are: France & UK 10%, Italy 8%, Spain & Canada 6%. usafacts.org/articles/what-…

The UK’s F-35s are under the microscope. But you need to cast your mind back to the 1998 SDR when the Joint Combat Aircraft (JCA) programme was formally announced alongside the decision to build two new aircraft carriers. But in the noise a few facts are forgotten. A JCA 🧵1/10 2/ The F-35 debate often centres around the Carriers and its Air Wing, but the letter J in JCA is often ignored. So what was around in 1998, and what was being replaced. Well the 2 x Invincible class Carriers were being replaced by 2 x much larger QEC class - the good news. But…

In a recent interview with @MishalHusain for @business, Nigel Farage, in trying to play down his Russian links, referred to his speech in the European Parliament where he predicted war with Russia. Seeing as he brought it up its worth a closer look.🧵1/5 2/ He spoke in Sept 14, seven months after Russia annexed Crimea. But, he appears to be predicting a war with NATO rather than an invasion of Ukraine - an important distinction. This of course has been a consistent Kremlin line to try and warn off any NATO assistance in Ukraine.

As Nathan Gill’s sentencing date approaches for bribery by Russian agents when serving as an elected MEP, it’s worth noting that he wasn’t the then BREXIT party’s only link to Russia. So, the question is how much further did it go? 🧵1/17
2/ Gill has admitted 8 counts of bribery between 6/12/18 and 18/07/19. He was handled by Oleg Voloshyn, although his wife Nadia Sass (aka Borodi) was never far away. They both worked on behalf of Ukrainian pro-Russian politician Viktor Medvedchuk, a personal friend of Putin.

The UK’s Carrier Strike Group is about to conduct a transit of the South China Sea after its time in Japan. It now finds itself having to manage a complex and changing diplomatic context. Is this crunch time for UK strategy & credibility in the region? - a🧵1/8
2/ The S. China Sea is a contested region because of China’s claim of a wider EEZ, demarked by the so-called 9-Dash line, and their “designs” on Taiwan. Their actions around Taiwan, in particular, are increasingly active, hostile and encroaching.