European security and helping Ukraine - what next?🧵1/13. The dire situation in Ukraine, the arrival of N Korean troops, and the (as yet unknown but feared) consequences of the US election, have brought Europe to a cross roads that has been looming on the horizon for decades. 2/ Europe’s over-reliance and high dependency on US leadership and military might dates back to the birth of NATO, and a lack of serious concern post the collapse of the Soviet Union has led us to here - the invasion of Ukraine has been the wake up call that hasn’t yet woken us.

So, what are the defence & security implications of an incoming Trump Presidency? And what might it mean for NATO, Europe and the UK? Peace & stability or to Hell in a handcart? A🧵1/14 2/ It’s fair to say we shouldn’t assume that he will follow through literally on every statement he has made, but with the Trifecta of the popular vote as President and a majority in both Houses he will be emboldened by that mandate.

With the US election imminent, much has been made of European allies not pulling their weight on defence. Looking at the pure numbers, there is a case to answer. GDP: 🇺🇸$15.7Tn🇪🇺$16.6Tn; Population: 🇺🇸316m🇪🇺510m. Using GDP alone it should be somewhere close to a 50:50 split. 1/13 2/ Although, if you used GDP per Capita you could come to a very different conclusion, but for the sake of simplicity let’s stay focussed on pure GDP as the yardstick.

We need to talk about nukes. A tactical nuclear🧵1/20. When people imagine nuclear exchanges they understandably tend to focus on Doomsday scenarios - but there are plenty of smaller weapons out there - especially in Russia. state.gov/report-on-the-… 2/ Some still believe that nuclear stand-offs are a thing of the past since the end of the Cold War. Whilst some view the threat as a binary choice between capitulation or Armageddon - the latter view has become particularly prevalent in our handling of the situation in Ukraine.

A short🧵1/9 on the Israeli air raids into Iran yesterday. This was more than a precision strike, it was a clear demonstration of capability, intent and will. [This replaces a previous thread that mistakenly reposted a misleading video - thank you to all who rightly corrected me] 2/ The raid demonstrates a level of co-ordination and execution that is way more precise, sophisticated and devastating than the salvo firing of some less-than-successful drones or missiles - which is Iran’s only viable conventional means to strike Israel.

A UK F35 myth-busting 🧵1/17 - just in case you get your information from other, less reputable sources 😉. 2/ The aircraft are funded through and managed by the Royal Air Force, their Operational Duty Holder (responsible for force generation and safety) is AOC 1 Group, RAF ; their home base is RAF Marham. raf.mod.uk/our-organisati…

The UK SDR is taking a “NATO first approach - enhancing the UK's contribution to the Alliance as a matter of policy, whilst protecting vital UK sovereign requirements and strategic reach”. But what might “NATO first” mean for Combat Air? Let’s look at some simple concepts. 🧵1/8 2/ Air Defence of the UK will remain a key but consuming task, where the majority of our Typhoons could be tied to defence of the UK and overseas territories. But this should limit the need for ground based effectors, because of our geography and NATO defensive screen in front.

GCAP is going to be a major decision facing the MoD as a result of the Defence Review. Many have been surprised by its relatively large size, but it is this that gives the biggest clue yet as to why a like-for-like drone replacement is some way off. Another bloody drone🧵 1/13 GCAP is a beast (1/3 bigger than a Typhoon) that appears to have a significant internal payload capacity as well as the fuel load to conduct long range missions. 2/13 aerosociety.com/news/gcap-anal…

As this will be a very high profile UK deployment next year, it’s worth digging into the F35 aspects. Firstly we should remember this was the previous Government’s commitment, one based on global ambition but also some key new partnerships (AUKUS & GCAP). A #CSG25 🧵 1/12

https://twitter.com/navylookout/status/1817097686169858543

The commitment was thin on detail of where and what but the intention was clear and Japan was singled out: . Some media sources jumped to the conclusion that this would be a “full fat” deployment with the largest possible complement of UK F35s. 2/12gov.uk/government/new…

A scenario of how Russia could attack the UK tomorrow. 4xTu160m Blackjack bombers launch from Engels airbase in Russia. Each aircraft carries 12 xKh101 Cruise missiles, so a total load of 48 missiles. 1/8





The Bombers would follow their normal high-north route taking them round the coast of Norway. They would be detected and shadowed by other NATO radars and interceptors, but with no sign of hostile intent they would continue south. 2/8

If there is one positive from Nigel Farage’s recent pro-Russian outburst, it is to increase focus on a country that fails to meet any accepted international standards by some margin. So let’s see what they have been up to for the last few years: They have used deadly chemical and radioactive agents in the UK to assassinate people in a way that kills other innocent people.

🪡🧵 There’s been a steady and growing queue of politicians making pleas for more defence spending, many of whom have held various Minsiterial roles within the MoD. There have been more (myself included) ex-Military leaders highlighting the increasing risks faced by Defence. 1/20 It is entirely understandable that most observers question why it takes retirement from a role to suddenly see clearly what needs to be done, and raises the perfectly valid question of why didn’t they say or do something when they had the power or position to do so. 2/20

A drone🪡🧵. With the proliferation of drones, what are the implications for conventional militaries? The drone label has been reserved for air vehicles, but I’m going to broaden it here to any unmanned military vehicle, whether it’s remotely operated or autonomous. 1/17 Drones have long been heralded as the end of manned flight (satellites will wonder what all the fuss is about). But, whilst that utopian vision remains unrealised, what Ukraine has confirmed is that Armies and Navies need to take them just as seriously. 2/17

“These are not the drones you’re looking for”. The RAF conducted tech demonstrations with “off the self” drones, but none came close to the capability sought. A planned 2023 trial with Spirit AeroSystems was cancelled in 2022 after a BOI assessment. 1/5 thetimes.co.uk/article/raf-dr… The LANCA “Mosquito” drone was aimed at a more advanced role than we see every day in Ukraine. The manned/unmanned teaming concept in the air domain remains an elusive goal with no budget. Currently, only the US looks likely to have the resource to deliver this concept. 2/5

The Non Statutory Inquiry into RAF Recruiting and Selection has been released (link below). There are no significant new revelations, but there are some key observations and organisational lessons worthy of emphasis. A short 🧵based n first read: 1/12

https://twitter.com/royalairforce/status/1674463226468220928

The report confirms that in retrospect the fast tracking of non-white male candidates on to earlier courses was discriminatory in law. However, importantly, the internal legal advice only changed to this position in mid 2022, when the practice was stopped. 2/12

A few myth busting thoughts on the UK’s evacuation operation in Sudan: 1. The UK reacted as quickly (if not quicker in some areas) in standing up a evacuation force. 2. It will have to operate for longer and have greater capacity than other Nations with smaller national numbers. 3. Because of the sheer numbers of UK Nationals and the indications of threat to the embassy, the UK prioritised it’s diplomatic evacuation rather than start a wider evacuation which needed a longer safe window than the promised initial 72 hours.

NEOs are almost always complex, executed late and never perfect. However, this one appears to have gone as well as anyone could have expected, and is testament to the planning team at PJHQ/JFHQ/FCO and the joint team who delivered it in the air and on the ground. Those seeking a reprieve for the C130 fleet (retiring this June) on the back of this will, I’m afraid, be disappointed. Better to see this as a changing of the guard - a final and fitting last mission for the venerable Herc and a coming of age for the A400M.

Passionate and powerful speech from Zelensky right now in Parliament. We must give Ukraine the tools to finish the job. telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/02/0… “While not offering actual aircraft, it could be a vital step in that process and maintain the momentum of western military aid. Moreover, the knowledge transfer would be invaluable in its own right.”

A Ukraine NFZ - busting some myths - A thread… #NoFlyZoneOverUkraine #NoFlyZone #NoFlyZoneInUkraineNow A No Fly Zone response to Russian actions in Ukraine is being dismissed out of hand. The arguments against are being parroted by politicians and commentators alike, but is it that black and white. Let’s unpick the 4 main arguments:

A Ukraine NFZ 🪡🧵- How could it work? I have shifted my view on this and believe that there is now a case to explore this option and soon. 1. It would have to be under UN “responsibility to protect” auspices and cannot be a purely NATO initiative. una.org.uk/r2p-detail contributions from non NATO nations would greatly assist here, but recognise that NATO nations/systems best placed.