Greg Bagwell Profile picture
Former RAF Senior Commander, President “UK Air & Space Power Association”. RUSI Distinguished Fellow. All views expressed are strictly in a personal capacity.
Apr 10 21 tweets 4 min read
There has been a lot of fuss made recently about combat aircraft numbers in the UK. I think that aircraft fleet management is worth a thread to try and explain how it works, and why just focussing on the numbers ordered, bought and delivered is only part of the story.🧵1/20 2/ Aircraft have some important characteristics that make them rather unique. The most critical is their “fatigue life”, which is a function of activity cycles that eventually weaken an aircraft to its cleared limit or life - extending that is rarely an option.
Apr 9 13 tweets 6 min read
In case you didn’t know, it’s the SDR silly season in the UK. There have been a few stories recently about our combat aircraft - how many, who owns them and what type? This one tries a whole new approach by trying to rehash the SDR of 15 years ago. A “Where do I Start” 🧵1/13 Image 2/ The article takes the premises of: (A) a combat air shortfall exists, and (B) the Carrier strike capability must be preserved. I agree wholeheartedly on the former point, but looking at the problem solely through the lens of the Carriers skews and limits the airpower aspects. Image
Mar 28 11 tweets 5 min read
The #SignalGate charge sheet is not restricted to one individual:

WALTZ - mistakenly admitted the journalist.

HEGSETH - released TOP SECRET data by inappropriate means.

GABBARD - denied under oath any classified data had been released.

A “who should carry the can” 🧵1/10 Image 2/ Multiple others carry varying degrees of culpability, by either condoning the release at the time or denying it subsequently. The deflection attempts are focussing on the journalist or the definition of war plans - these are irrelevant to the fundamental argument. Image
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Mar 27 4 tweets 2 min read
There is a slight twist to the #signalgate scandal. The USN and USMC have always preferred the probe and drogue method of air refuelling. Because the USAF prefers the boom method, UK tankers spend quite a bit of time refuelling USN & USMC aircraft. 🧵1/4 Image 2/ It looks like the UK may have been providing fuel to the US strikes against Houthi targets. This is not new, we have participated in strikes in the past. But this mission was in the context of a breach in National Security, that also included statements denigrating Europe. Image
Mar 26 16 tweets 4 min read
A thread on Classified Information - its handling, and why it matters 1/15 Image 1/ Nations have secrets - they can be about their own vulnerabilities or those of potential enemies. They can be used to protect sensitive technology or information that confer an advantage. They can be about plans to take certain actions.
Mar 25 4 tweets 2 min read
Here is a recent NSA OPSEC BULLETIN warning of the vulnerability of the SIGNAL application. The NSA works to the DNI (Tulsi Gabbard) who was on the SIGNAL thread. But there are a couple of other things to note here: A Classification 🧵1/4 Image 2/ Note that in the header of the document there is a standardised classification heading which tells the reader exactly what the classification is and, therefore, how to handle the document and its details. Image
Mar 25 7 tweets 3 min read
The #SignalGate episode is far, far more serious than the US administration is trying to suggest. It is not just a question of Mike Waltz making a “mistake” by accidentally including a journalist. They should never have been using the medium for the purpose they did.🧵1/6 Image
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2/ The level of information that was posted appears to amount to at least Secret (targets, times and weapons ahead of a strike), but some may possibly be even higher than that (CIA Operative names). These are clear breaches if true, and everyone involved should have known that.
Mar 5 10 tweets 4 min read
Europe has some serious thinking and acting to do about the medium to long term. But what can it do in the short-term that could make a difference in Ukraine? It’s time for a No Fly Zone thread: how one could work and why it might help 🧵1/10 Image 2/ First let’s make some assumptions: 1) the US will not expend any military effort pre or post peace; 2) any peace will need a degree of air control to monitor and deter; 3) peace could take some time to be negotiated and Ukraine needs assistance/reassurance during that period.
Feb 24 12 tweets 3 min read
As I see it, NATO/European Defence has four strategic options in light of recent events. They cannot be separated from the situation in Ukraine, which is fundamental to European security. So what are they? 🧵1/12 Image 2/ Option 1 - Hold our nerve & stay as we are in the belief that the US will see sense and adjust their views on Europe, Ukraine & Russia. I think we are too far gone to take this choice and I can’t believe I’m seeing and saying that! Score 3/10
Jan 31 14 tweets 5 min read
Seeing as somebody in authority has decided to call early the cause for the terrible air accident in Washington, it might be worth adding some details of what we know and what sort of things the NTSB Investigation team will be looking at. 🧵 1/10 Image 2/ We know that the American Eagle flight (AA5342) was making a cleared approach to Runway 33 at the Ronald Reagan Airport. Whilst a standard approach it is less commonly used than Runway 01, which is the longer runway. Image
Nov 7, 2024 13 tweets 3 min read
European security and helping Ukraine - what next?🧵1/13. The dire situation in Ukraine, the arrival of N Korean troops, and the (as yet unknown but feared) consequences of the US election, have brought Europe to a cross roads that has been looming on the horizon for decades. 2/ Europe’s over-reliance and high dependency on US leadership and military might dates back to the birth of NATO, and a lack of serious concern post the collapse of the Soviet Union has led us to here - the invasion of Ukraine has been the wake up call that hasn’t yet woken us.
Nov 6, 2024 14 tweets 3 min read
So, what are the defence & security implications of an incoming Trump Presidency? And what might it mean for NATO, Europe and the UK? Peace & stability or to Hell in a handcart? A🧵1/14 Image 2/ It’s fair to say we shouldn’t assume that he will follow through literally on every statement he has made, but with the Trifecta of the popular vote as President and a majority in both Houses he will be emboldened by that mandate.
Nov 4, 2024 13 tweets 4 min read
With the US election imminent, much has been made of European allies not pulling their weight on defence. Looking at the pure numbers, there is a case to answer. GDP: 🇺🇸$15.7Tn🇪🇺$16.6Tn; Population: 🇺🇸316m🇪🇺510m. Using GDP alone it should be somewhere close to a 50:50 split. 1/13 Image 2/ Although, if you used GDP per Capita you could come to a very different conclusion, but for the sake of simplicity let’s stay focussed on pure GDP as the yardstick.
Oct 30, 2024 22 tweets 9 min read
We need to talk about nukes. A tactical nuclear🧵1/20. When people imagine nuclear exchanges they understandably tend to focus on Doomsday scenarios - but there are plenty of smaller weapons out there - especially in Russia. state.gov/report-on-the-… 2/ Some still believe that nuclear stand-offs are a thing of the past since the end of the Cold War. Whilst some view the threat as a binary choice between capitulation or Armageddon - the latter view has become particularly prevalent in our handling of the situation in Ukraine. Image
Oct 27, 2024 9 tweets 4 min read
A short🧵1/9 on the Israeli air raids into Iran yesterday. This was more than a precision strike, it was a clear demonstration of capability, intent and will. [This replaces a previous thread that mistakenly reposted a misleading video - thank you to all who rightly corrected me] Image 2/ The raid demonstrates a level of co-ordination and execution that is way more precise, sophisticated and devastating than the salvo firing of some less-than-successful drones or missiles - which is Iran’s only viable conventional means to strike Israel. Image
Oct 22, 2024 18 tweets 5 min read
A UK F35 myth-busting 🧵1/17 - just in case you get your information from other, less reputable sources 😉. 2/ The aircraft are funded through and managed by the Royal Air Force, their Operational Duty Holder (responsible for force generation and safety) is AOC 1 Group, RAF ; their home base is RAF Marham. raf.mod.uk/our-organisati…Image
Sep 5, 2024 10 tweets 4 min read
The UK SDR is taking a “NATO first approach - enhancing the UK's contribution to the Alliance as a matter of policy, whilst protecting vital UK sovereign requirements and strategic reach”. But what might “NATO first” mean for Combat Air? Let’s look at some simple concepts. 🧵1/8 Image 2/ Air Defence of the UK will remain a key but consuming task, where the majority of our Typhoons could be tied to defence of the UK and overseas territories. But this should limit the need for ground based effectors, because of our geography and NATO defensive screen in front. Image
Aug 3, 2024 13 tweets 6 min read
GCAP is going to be a major decision facing the MoD as a result of the Defence Review. Many have been surprised by its relatively large size, but it is this that gives the biggest clue yet as to why a like-for-like drone replacement is some way off. Another bloody drone🧵 1/13 Image GCAP is a beast (1/3 bigger than a Typhoon) that appears to have a significant internal payload capacity as well as the fuel load to conduct long range missions. 2/13 aerosociety.com/news/gcap-anal…
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Jul 27, 2024 12 tweets 4 min read
As this will be a very high profile UK deployment next year, it’s worth digging into the F35 aspects. Firstly we should remember this was the previous Government’s commitment, one based on global ambition but also some key new partnerships (AUKUS & GCAP). A #CSG25 🧵 1/12 The commitment was thin on detail of where and what but the intention was clear and Japan was singled out: . Some media sources jumped to the conclusion that this would be a “full fat” deployment with the largest possible complement of UK F35s. 2/12gov.uk/government/new…
Jul 8, 2024 12 tweets 8 min read
A scenario of how Russia could attack the UK tomorrow. 4xTu160m Blackjack bombers launch from Engels airbase in Russia. Each aircraft carries 12 xKh101 Cruise missiles, so a total load of 48 missiles. 1/8


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The Bombers would follow their normal high-north route taking them round the coast of Norway. They would be detected and shadowed by other NATO radars and interceptors, but with no sign of hostile intent they would continue south. 2/8
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Jun 25, 2024 14 tweets 6 min read
If there is one positive from Nigel Farage’s recent pro-Russian outburst, it is to increase focus on a country that fails to meet any accepted international standards by some margin. So let’s see what they have been up to for the last few years: Image They have used deadly chemical and radioactive agents in the UK to assassinate people in a way that kills other innocent people.
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