Thread by @james_acton32

How far has military action set back Iran's nuclear program?

Netanyahu says 2-3 years.

JD Vance says "substantially."

In @politico, I argue that Iran could build the bomb in a year. And it now has much stronger reasons to do so. (1/n)

Iran still has its own nuclear triad: highly enriched uranium, centrifuge components, and expertise.

That's right.

A war waged nominally for nonproliferation has left Iran with several bombs worth of un-safeguarded highly enriched uranium. (2/n)

politico.com/news/magazine/…

IAEA DG @rafaelmgrossi has indicated, pretty explicitly, it was removed by Iran to locations unknown before the war began. (3/n)

iaea.org/newscenter/sta…

@rafaelmgrossi With that material plus centrifuge components and experts, Iran could produce enough material for a bomb in about a year--perhaps rather faster. Weaponization efforts could run in parallel until the very end. (4/n)

@rafaelmgrossi The standard response here is, "well, we can just bomb then again."

And, yes, that's true!

But bombing Iran once a year seems like a catastrophic outcome. And it requires intelligence to be pretty much perfect every time. (5/n)

@rafaelmgrossi Moreover, Iran already has facilities which are deeper than Fordow and thus likely beyond reach of the MOP.

@ArmsControlWonk has been all over this. (6/n)

https://x.com/ArmsControlWonk/status/1936955686174466551

@rafaelmgrossi @ArmsControlWonk As is obvious, I'm pessimistic about where we're heading. But let me say this: If there is any opening for diplomacy, take it! Even a "bad deal" could be pretty attractive right now. (7/7)