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Mike Madrid Profile picture
@madrid_mike
Jun 25 • 3 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
The election results in NYC are looking like the polls aren’t picking up intensity.

The pundits missed it again.

Democrats want to flip tables over as much as Republicans did in their Tea Party moment. 🧵
One of the interesting things to look for is how working class Black and Brown residents voted. If these voters break left after moving towards Trump there’s a lot of water thrown on the ‘racial realignment’ narrative.

These voters are becoming more populist NOT more conservative
Voters are absolutely sick and tired of establishment politics. It’s not ideological and that’s what the parties, pollsters and politicians are missing.

The consulting class keeps trying to explain this phenomenon in their own partisan box & they keep missing it.

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More from @madrid_mike

Mike Madrid Profile picture
May 28
The election of Pope Leo represents one of the most strategically astute ecclesiastical decisions in modern Catholic history. The specter of JD Vance, a recent convert whose interpretation of Catholic teaching is filtered through the lens of American evangelical nationalism.
Vance's public statements reveal a theological worldview fundamentally at odds with Catholicism’s compassionate social teachings. This stark contradiction becomes strikingly pronounced when contrasted with Pope Francis's repeated calls for compassion toward migrants.
Pope Leo's background is everything that Vance-style Catholic nationalism is not. While Vance crafted his political identity in the halls of power in New Haven & Silicon Valley while Leo spent his formative years in rural Peru, learning Quechua to serve indigenous communities.
Read 6 tweets
Mike Madrid Profile picture
May 8
The College of Cardinals has issued a bold repudiation of nativism & signaled a renewed commitment to justice, inclusion, & leadership in the face of American moral decline.

This isn’t the first time it has done so.The Church, of course, has a storied history of politics 🧵
Pope Pius XII was elected in 1939 in the face of similar rising threats to the global order and dehumanizing politics. open.substack.com/pub/greattrans…
Make no mistake an American Pope was chosen precisely because the rising wellspring of hate masquerading as Christianity has taken root in the United States.
Read 6 tweets
Mike Madrid Profile picture
Nov 17, 2024
A little history you likely haven’t heard about ‘Mass Deportations’ as we near a historic change in immigration policy.

Thousands of US citizens were rounded up the last time the US did this - maybe over a million, many children open.substack.com/pub/greattrans…Image
The first mass deportation of Mexicans & US citizens of Mexican descent occurred during the Great Depression when farm jobs were prioritized for white Okies, dustbowlers & ‘real Americans’ over Latino citizens.

The government also wanted New Deal dollars going to whites first.
This was known as the ‘Mexican Repatriation’ and it was anything but. It’s a whitewashed name for a history never taught in public schools.

1.8 million Mexicans & US citizens were deported - over half believed to be US citizens, many of them children.
Read 6 tweets
Mike Madrid Profile picture
Nov 3, 2024
The Selzer poll was a big bolt of lightning and thunder in a race defined by very little movement in polling numbers.

This is great news for Harris -no other way to spin it. Great for the narrative, momentum & even if the numbers aren’t perfectly accurate they show big movement
Why does that matter in swing states? Well Almost all of the movement in this poll towards Harris came from Republicans and Independent women.

In fact the poll shows Trump losing 11% of GOP voters in one of the whitest most conservative states in the country.
The Selzer poll can also be viewed as a good sample of this critical bloc of voters in swing states - a key group Harris needs to overperform with in order to win.

So why is there such big movement in Iowa and not other swing states?
Read 4 tweets
Mike Madrid Profile picture
Oct 28, 2024
The racial slurs at Trumps rally in Madison Square Garden could cost him the election. Why?

First, even if it just moves Pennsylvania marginally its game over and it’s likely to move Latino’s and Republicans there.

Puerto Ricans are the largest Latino plurality in PA and
Harris is doing best in PA with Latinos of all the swing states.

PA had huge Latino rightward shifts in 2020 & 2022 meaning there was a lot of Democratic crossovers to Republicans. That existing registration history suggests they can also be brought back.
450K Puerto Rican voters in PA (33,500 in Allentown alone)

Just a few points return of these voters could be a disaster for Trump and Bad Bunny, Marc Anthony, Jennifer Lopez, Residente and Geraldo Rivera weighing in can move 1-3 points.

Moreover…
Read 6 tweets
Mike Madrid Profile picture
Oct 8, 2024
There are three issues proven to move Republican voters past ‘The Bannon Line’ from 2020.

January 6
The Big Lie
Dobbs

Focus on these three issues and you win the race. Harris can pass the Bannon line and get a record number of Republican votes.
You do not need a permission structure to defend your body or your country.

I’m deeply honored & grateful for those Republicans who have the courage to step forward against Trump. Everything helps at this moment.

But let’s be clear - we’re way past a ‘permission structure’
We’re not selling toothpaste folks.

The threat to our country and our rights is existential and that’s why 17-20% of Republicans were peeling off Trump - before Nikki Haley, before Liz Cheney, before the convention.

Republican defections will win this race for Harris but…
Read 6 tweets

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