There’s been a dizzying amount of interest group super PAC spending & endorsements in this Tuesday’s 5 competitive Illinois congressional primaries — it’s been hard to keep track of
So here’s a cheat sheet for which notable groups & individuals are supporting (or opposing) whom:
Groups and individuals included in the chart:
— AIPAC shadow groups (United Democracy Project, Elect Chicago Women, Chicago Progressive Partnership, Affordable Chicago Now!)
— Pro-crypto super PACs (Fairshake/Protect Progress)
— Pro-AI super PACs (Leading the Future/Think Big)
— Congressional Progressive Caucus
— Justice Democrats
— Bernie Sanders
— Elizabeth Warren
— Congressional Black Caucus
For the people that (understandably) don’t want to zoom in, let’s break this out by category.
First, the candidates that AIPAC is spending for and against:
It’s a special election so caveats obviously apply — and Texas has been such a tease for Democrats for so long that I dare not venture to hope — but 2026 Blexas is on the table if Latinos shift anywhere near this much.
They flexed their political power for the first time in the June primary
A key reason those polls were so off was because Muslims were under-polled (difficult to get to take polls, due in part to post-9/11 wariness of giving away any personal info)
My likely voter model estimates them to make up 8% of the likely electorate (they make up 7% of registered voters).
I have not seen other pollsters release their weights of Muslim voters in NYC. They should. They are the sleeping giant of NYC electoral politics.
@amitsinghbagga and I spent extra time & money targeting sample in Muslim-heavy zipcodes in our July poll of the mayoral race, and we still struggled to reach even the bare minimum of a readable sample size (n=50) for a crosstab subgroup.
Now that the Adams drama is behind us, and with less than four weeks to go until early voting, I’d like to see:
1) A renewed focus on Cuomo’s handling of nursing homes during COVID & on him seeking retribution against some of the women who accused him of sexual misconduct