They flexed their political power for the first time in the June primary
A key reason those polls were so off was because Muslims were under-polled (difficult to get to take polls, due in part to post-9/11 wariness of giving away any personal info)
My likely voter model estimates them to make up 8% of the likely electorate (they make up 7% of registered voters).
I have not seen other pollsters release their weights of Muslim voters in NYC. They should. They are the sleeping giant of NYC electoral politics.
@amitsinghbagga and I spent extra time & money targeting sample in Muslim-heavy zipcodes in our July poll of the mayoral race, and we still struggled to reach even the bare minimum of a readable sample size (n=50) for a crosstab subgroup.
Now that the Adams drama is behind us, and with less than four weeks to go until early voting, I’d like to see:
1) A renewed focus on Cuomo’s handling of nursing homes during COVID & on him seeking retribution against some of the women who accused him of sexual misconduct
1) He empowered a power-sharing arrangement between moderate Ds (IDC) & Rs in state Sen, which prevented NY from codifying abortion rights, enacting stronger gun control & expanding legal recourse available to people who were sexually abused as kids
2) He cut $65M of funding for a rental assistance program, which led to a loss of $27M in federal funds, leading to surge in NYC homelessness
3) He cut funding to the MTA and prioritized flashy projects over basic subway maintenance (plus had them bail out state-run ski resorts)
4) To balance the budget, he refused to increase taxes on the mega-rich, instead cutting funding to public schools (especially in low income areas in NYC) — and he called for cuts to Medicaid as well
5) He cut funding for CUNY (and wanted to cut it even more before he resigned)