Adam Carlson Profile picture
Jun 25 9 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Let's take a trip down Demographics Avenue, shall we? (courtesy of this incredible tool from the New York Times)

Mamdani is winning majority Asian precincts by 15 points.

And not just South Asian bastions like Jackson Heights.

East Asian bastions like Sunset Park & Chinatown. Image
Mamdani is winning majority Latino precincts by 6.5 points.

Outside of the Bronx, he cleaned up almost everywhere, including Sunset Park West & Bushwick in Brooklyn, and Corona & Woodhaven in Queens. Image
Mamdani is winning majority white precincts by 5 points

He lost the UES, UWS & wealthier parts of Manhattan

He obviously got smoked in the orthodox Jewish hubs (Borough Park, Crown Heights, South Williamsburg)

And he lost heavily ethnic white parts of South BK & Staten

But... Image
He won most of Bay Ridge in South Brooklyn (my neighborhood!), and not just the Middle Eastern parts to the east.

He dominated the "Commie Corridor" of western Queens, Brooklyn west and northwest of Prospect Park, and Morningside Heights in Manhattan.
Cuomo only won majority Black precincts by 19 points. Polls had him with a much larger lead among Black voters.

Mamdani did well in gentrifying areas with more younger Black voters, including Harlem, Bed Stuy, Lefferts Gardens, and Flatbush.

He did poorly everywhere else. Image
Cuomo won precincts where the median household income is under $50K by 13 points.

Most of that is concentrated in the Bronx, but turnout was also pretty anemic there compared to 2021. Image
Mamdani won precincts where the median household income is $50-$100K by 9 points. Image
Mamdani won precincts where the median household income is $100K+ by 13 points.

He was especially strong in west Queens, Brownstone Brooklyn, and most of Manhattan below Prospect Park. Image

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More from @admcrlsn

Jun 26
If this is true, barring an act of god Eric Adams has zero path to victory in November.
Adams charitably had a 40% chance of winning if it was a 1:1 race vs. Mamdani, with a coalition of Black, Jewish, moderate, conservative, uber wealthy, non-college & low income New Yorkers

But even then he needed everything to go right to have a shot

With Sliwa in, it’s Joever
Mamdani should run through the tape regardless and take absolutely nothing for granted, and work to maximize the size of his citywide mandate.

But…I mean…the math is just not there to take him down in a 3 or 4-way race.
Read 4 tweets
Jun 26
If you know even a single thing about Boston politics and governance, you’d know that this is laughably false.
1) 17K new affordable housing already built or being built

2) Free bus routes in subway desert areas (Black & Brown neighborhoods)

3) New accountability standards for police

4) $50M in funding to improve apartment complexes in Jamaica Plain
5) Guaranteed summer jobs to every Boston public school student

6) Formed a rent stabilization advisory committee

7) More bike lanes

8) More community access program grants

9) Programs to increase nightlife and investments in the food scene
Read 5 tweets
Jun 25
Per @JCColtin and @abhinanda_b, let’s take a look at New York City Democratic elected officials that called on Cuomo to resign in 2021 (in light of the sexual harassment allegations made against him) that endorsed him in 2025 — in their own words.

1) U.S. Rep. Ritchie Torres Image
Image
2) U.S. Rep. Greg Meeks Image
3) State Sen. Joseph Abbado Jr. Image
Image
Read 19 tweets
May 30
Here are 10 reasons to not rank Cuomo on your primary ballot, even if you have issues w/ Mamdani’s policies (🧵)

1) NY’s AG found that he sexually harassed 11 women

2) NY’s AG found that he understated the toll of COVID-19-related deaths in state nursing homes by as much as 83%
3) He empowered a power-sharing arrangement between moderate Dems (IDC) & Republicans in the state Senate, which prevented NY from codifying abortion rights, enacting stronger gun control & expanding legal recourse available to people who say they were sexually abused as children
4) He cut $65M of funding for a rental assistance program, which led to a loss of $27M in federal funds, leading to surge in NYC homelessness

5) He cut funding to the MTA and prioritized flashy projects over basic subway maintenance (plus had them bail out state-run ski resorts)
Read 7 tweets
Apr 27
It’s rare that we get to examine Asian Americans’ political views. Pollsters often combine them with all other non-White/Black/Latino groups due to insufficient n-size

But in the latest Pew poll (4/7-13) we got a detailed breakdown re: Trump job approval (among English speakers) Image
The avg of all 5 crosstabs from Month 3 of Trump’s term among Asian Americans are a bit better for Trump at 36% approve, 61% disapprove.

That puts them about on par with Latinos (38-59).

For context, 2024 exit polls showed Asians backing Harris 55-40 & Latinos backing her 51-46
Here are the individual polls measuring Trump’s approval rating among Asian Americans from Month 3 of his second term:

AtlasIntel: 🔴 30-70
HarrisX (Harvard CAPS): 🟢 49-45
McLaughlin (R): 🔴 44-56
Pew: 🔴 29-69
YouGov (UMass Amherst): 🔴 27-64
Read 4 tweets

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