Adams charitably had a 40% chance of winning if it was a 1:1 race vs. Mamdani, with a coalition of Black, Jewish, moderate, conservative, uber wealthy, non-college & low income New Yorkers
But even then he needed everything to go right to have a shot
With Sliwa in, it’s Joever
Mamdani should run through the tape regardless and take absolutely nothing for granted, and work to maximize the size of his citywide mandate.
But…I mean…the math is just not there to take him down in a 3 or 4-way race.
Per @JCColtin and @abhinanda_b, let’s take a look at New York City Democratic elected officials that called on Cuomo to resign in 2021 (in light of the sexual harassment allegations made against him) that endorsed him in 2025 — in their own words.
Here are 10 reasons to not rank Cuomo on your primary ballot, even if you have issues w/ Mamdani’s policies (🧵)
1) NY’s AG found that he sexually harassed 11 women
2) NY’s AG found that he understated the toll of COVID-19-related deaths in state nursing homes by as much as 83%
3) He empowered a power-sharing arrangement between moderate Dems (IDC) & Republicans in the state Senate, which prevented NY from codifying abortion rights, enacting stronger gun control & expanding legal recourse available to people who say they were sexually abused as children
4) He cut $65M of funding for a rental assistance program, which led to a loss of $27M in federal funds, leading to surge in NYC homelessness
5) He cut funding to the MTA and prioritized flashy projects over basic subway maintenance (plus had them bail out state-run ski resorts)
It’s rare that we get to examine Asian Americans’ political views. Pollsters often combine them with all other non-White/Black/Latino groups due to insufficient n-size
But in the latest Pew poll (4/7-13) we got a detailed breakdown re: Trump job approval (among English speakers)
The avg of all 5 crosstabs from Month 3 of Trump’s term among Asian Americans are a bit better for Trump at 36% approve, 61% disapprove.
That puts them about on par with Latinos (38-59).
For context, 2024 exit polls showed Asians backing Harris 55-40 & Latinos backing her 51-46
Here are the individual polls measuring Trump’s approval rating among Asian Americans from Month 3 of his second term: