Adam Carlson Profile picture
Jun 25, 2025 9 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Let's take a trip down Demographics Avenue, shall we? (courtesy of this incredible tool from the New York Times)

Mamdani is winning majority Asian precincts by 15 points.

And not just South Asian bastions like Jackson Heights.

East Asian bastions like Sunset Park & Chinatown. Image
Mamdani is winning majority Latino precincts by 6.5 points.

Outside of the Bronx, he cleaned up almost everywhere, including Sunset Park West & Bushwick in Brooklyn, and Corona & Woodhaven in Queens. Image
Mamdani is winning majority white precincts by 5 points

He lost the UES, UWS & wealthier parts of Manhattan

He obviously got smoked in the orthodox Jewish hubs (Borough Park, Crown Heights, South Williamsburg)

And he lost heavily ethnic white parts of South BK & Staten

But... Image
He won most of Bay Ridge in South Brooklyn (my neighborhood!), and not just the Middle Eastern parts to the east.

He dominated the "Commie Corridor" of western Queens, Brooklyn west and northwest of Prospect Park, and Morningside Heights in Manhattan.
Cuomo only won majority Black precincts by 19 points. Polls had him with a much larger lead among Black voters.

Mamdani did well in gentrifying areas with more younger Black voters, including Harlem, Bed Stuy, Lefferts Gardens, and Flatbush.

He did poorly everywhere else. Image
Cuomo won precincts where the median household income is under $50K by 13 points.

Most of that is concentrated in the Bronx, but turnout was also pretty anemic there compared to 2021. Image
Mamdani won precincts where the median household income is $50-$100K by 9 points. Image
Mamdani won precincts where the median household income is $100K+ by 13 points.

He was especially strong in west Queens, Brownstone Brooklyn, and most of Manhattan below Prospect Park. Image

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More from @admcrlsn

Dec 21, 2025
🔴 75% grade economy as a C, D, or F

🔴 73% say Trump admin isn’t focusing enough on lowering price of goods & services

🔴 68% say his new tariffs increased prices they paid in 2025

🔴 66% disapprove of his handling of inflation

🔴 65% say his policies most favor the wealthy
🔴 63% disapprove of his handling of the economy

🔴 61% say he’s making things sound better than they really are on prices & inflation

🔴 61% say his policies are making health insurance costs go up

🔴 51% say his policies have decreased peace & stability in the world
🔴 50% say his policies are making them financially worse off & 45% expect them to make them worse off in 2026

🔴 50% say Trump’s policies are causing job losses

🔴 49% say Trump doesn’t care at all about the needs & problems of people like them (plus 13% that say “not much”)
Read 4 tweets
Nov 6, 2025
Ok time for a geographic and demographic *deep* dive mega thread on the NYC mayor’s race.

Here I’ll be using the New York Times’ excellent categorical precinct mapping tool (link at bottom).

Let’s nerd out.

🧵 Image
BIG PICTURE:

Mamdani currently leads Cuomo 50.4% to 41.6%, with 93% of precincts reporting.

That margin may shift slightly with late arriving mail ballots & affidavit ballots.

Sliwa’s support collapsed in the home stretch, giving Cuomo a better than expected performance. Image
BOROUGH:

Unsurprisingly, Brooklyn was Mamdani’s strongest borough.

What was surprising was that the Bronx — Mamdani’s worst borough in the primary — was his second best borough in the GE. More on that later.

Cuomo handily won Staten Island (due to said Sliwa collapse). Image
Read 18 tweets
Oct 24, 2025
Muslims make up ~9-12% of NYC

They flexed their political power for the first time in the June primary

A key reason those polls were so off was because Muslims were under-polled (difficult to get to take polls, due in part to post-9/11 wariness of giving away any personal info)
My likely voter model estimates them to make up 8% of the likely electorate (they make up 7% of registered voters).

I have not seen other pollsters release their weights of Muslim voters in NYC. They should. They are the sleeping giant of NYC electoral politics.
@amitsinghbagga and I spent extra time & money targeting sample in Muslim-heavy zipcodes in our July poll of the mayoral race, and we still struggled to reach even the bare minimum of a readable sample size (n=50) for a crosstab subgroup.
Read 4 tweets
Sep 29, 2025
Now that the Adams drama is behind us, and with less than four weeks to go until early voting, I’d like to see:

1) A renewed focus on Cuomo’s handling of nursing homes during COVID & on him seeking retribution against some of the women who accused him of sexual misconduct
2) Mamdani pressed on specifically how he would work with the state legislature & Hochul to get funding for his top priorities

3) A real debate about education policy (mayoral control, etc.)

4) The candidates answer specifically what they’d do differently than Adams on housing
5) The candidates put some names forward of people they’d consider for deputy mayor (the people that actually run the day to day of the city)

6) Cuomo pressed on his legal work defending Netanyahu against the ICC
Read 7 tweets
Aug 10, 2025
*clears throat* allow me 🧵

1) He empowered a power-sharing arrangement between moderate Ds (IDC) & Rs in state Sen, which prevented NY from codifying abortion rights, enacting stronger gun control & expanding legal recourse available to people who were sexually abused as kids Image
2) He cut $65M of funding for a rental assistance program, which led to a loss of $27M in federal funds, leading to surge in NYC homelessness

3) He cut funding to the MTA and prioritized flashy projects over basic subway maintenance (plus had them bail out state-run ski resorts)
4) To balance the budget, he refused to increase taxes on the mega-rich, instead cutting funding to public schools (especially in low income areas in NYC) — and he called for cuts to Medicaid as well

5) He cut funding for CUNY (and wanted to cut it even more before he resigned)
Read 6 tweets
Aug 10, 2025
Per Yahoo/YouGov poll, a huge share of Harris voters & indies have a negative view of Dems but will vote for them in 2026:

Overall:
🔴View of Ds: -20
🔵Generic Ballot: D+7

Harris Voters:
🟢View of Ds: +41
🔵Generic Ballot: D+86

Indies:
🔴View of Ds: -39
🔵Generic Ballot: D+20 Image
Image
Read 4 tweets

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