Adam Carlson Profile picture
Jun 25, 2025 9 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Let's take a trip down Demographics Avenue, shall we? (courtesy of this incredible tool from the New York Times)

Mamdani is winning majority Asian precincts by 15 points.

And not just South Asian bastions like Jackson Heights.

East Asian bastions like Sunset Park & Chinatown. Image
Mamdani is winning majority Latino precincts by 6.5 points.

Outside of the Bronx, he cleaned up almost everywhere, including Sunset Park West & Bushwick in Brooklyn, and Corona & Woodhaven in Queens. Image
Mamdani is winning majority white precincts by 5 points

He lost the UES, UWS & wealthier parts of Manhattan

He obviously got smoked in the orthodox Jewish hubs (Borough Park, Crown Heights, South Williamsburg)

And he lost heavily ethnic white parts of South BK & Staten

But... Image
He won most of Bay Ridge in South Brooklyn (my neighborhood!), and not just the Middle Eastern parts to the east.

He dominated the "Commie Corridor" of western Queens, Brooklyn west and northwest of Prospect Park, and Morningside Heights in Manhattan.
Cuomo only won majority Black precincts by 19 points. Polls had him with a much larger lead among Black voters.

Mamdani did well in gentrifying areas with more younger Black voters, including Harlem, Bed Stuy, Lefferts Gardens, and Flatbush.

He did poorly everywhere else. Image
Cuomo won precincts where the median household income is under $50K by 13 points.

Most of that is concentrated in the Bronx, but turnout was also pretty anemic there compared to 2021. Image
Mamdani won precincts where the median household income is $50-$100K by 9 points. Image
Mamdani won precincts where the median household income is $100K+ by 13 points.

He was especially strong in west Queens, Brownstone Brooklyn, and most of Manhattan below Prospect Park. Image

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More from @admcrlsn

Jun 18
🚨 A new poll from Zenith Research — on behalf of Common Defense, fielded from 6/11-14 among n=602 likely general election voters in Michigan — finds Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in a strong position in a matchup against Republican Mike Rogers.

In addition to having a higher vote share vs. Rogers than McMorrow or Stevens, El-Sayed brings unique coalitional advantages to the general election — and Stevens brings unique vulnerabilities.

🧵Image
The difference between El-Sayed and Stevens’ vote shares — 45% and 43%, respectively — appears to be due to Stevens’ relative unpopularity among voters who self-identify as “very progressive or liberal.”

31% of progressive/liberal voters hold a “strongly unfavorable” view of Stevens, with several saying they would stay home or vote third party if she was the Democratic nominee — including some citing her ties to AIPAC as the driving cause, which coincides with AIPAC taking a more active role in the campaign in recent weeks.

26% of very progressive/liberal voters say they would be undecided if Stevens was the nominee (4% of these voters say they would be undecided if El-Sayed was the nominee).
In matchups against Rogers, El-Sayed outperforms McMorrow & Stevens among very progressive/liberal voters, voters ages 18-29, renters & those who say they are more of a supporter of progressive causes/the progressive movement than the Democratic Party.

El-Sayed & McMorrow both outperform Stevens in “college counties” (Washtenaw, Ingham & Kalamazoo — home to UMich, Michigan State & WMU, respectively) and among independents.

McMorrow outperforms El-Sayed & Stevens among those who say healthcare is one of the two most important issues to their vote.

Stevens outperforms El-Sayed & McMorrow among Black voters and those who say they are more of a supporter of the Democratic Party than progressive causes/the progressive movement.Image
Read 9 tweets
Mar 15
There’s been a dizzying amount of interest group super PAC spending & endorsements in this Tuesday’s 5 competitive Illinois congressional primaries — it’s been hard to keep track of

So here’s a cheat sheet for which notable groups & individuals are supporting (or opposing) whom: Image
Groups and individuals included in the chart:

— AIPAC shadow groups (United Democracy Project, Elect Chicago Women, Chicago Progressive Partnership, Affordable Chicago Now!)

— Pro-crypto super PACs (Fairshake/Protect Progress)

— Pro-AI super PACs (Leading the Future/Think Big)

— Congressional Progressive Caucus

— Justice Democrats

— Bernie Sanders

— Elizabeth Warren

— Congressional Black Caucus
For the people that (understandably) don’t want to zoom in, let’s break this out by category.

First, the candidates that AIPAC is spending for and against: Image
Read 6 tweets
Feb 1
Demorat Taylor Rehmet just flipped a Trump +17 Texas Senate seat (Ft. Worth/Arlington area).

The recent high water mark for Dems in the district was 43.6% (Beto 2018).

Rehmet’s likely to exceed 55%.

The heavily Latino parts of the district shifted sharply to the left from 2024 Image
This is despite being outspent by nearly $2.2M by the Republican candidate.
Simply astounding.

It’s a special election so caveats obviously apply — and Texas has been such a tease for Democrats for so long that I dare not venture to hope — but 2026 Blexas is on the table if Latinos shift anywhere near this much.
Read 4 tweets
Dec 21, 2025
🔴 75% grade economy as a C, D, or F

🔴 73% say Trump admin isn’t focusing enough on lowering price of goods & services

🔴 68% say his new tariffs increased prices they paid in 2025

🔴 66% disapprove of his handling of inflation

🔴 65% say his policies most favor the wealthy
🔴 63% disapprove of his handling of the economy

🔴 61% say he’s making things sound better than they really are on prices & inflation

🔴 61% say his policies are making health insurance costs go up

🔴 51% say his policies have decreased peace & stability in the world
🔴 50% say his policies are making them financially worse off & 45% expect them to make them worse off in 2026

🔴 50% say Trump’s policies are causing job losses

🔴 49% say Trump doesn’t care at all about the needs & problems of people like them (plus 13% that say “not much”)
Read 4 tweets
Nov 6, 2025
Ok time for a geographic and demographic *deep* dive mega thread on the NYC mayor’s race.

Here I’ll be using the New York Times’ excellent categorical precinct mapping tool (link at bottom).

Let’s nerd out.

🧵 Image
BIG PICTURE:

Mamdani currently leads Cuomo 50.4% to 41.6%, with 93% of precincts reporting.

That margin may shift slightly with late arriving mail ballots & affidavit ballots.

Sliwa’s support collapsed in the home stretch, giving Cuomo a better than expected performance. Image
BOROUGH:

Unsurprisingly, Brooklyn was Mamdani’s strongest borough.

What was surprising was that the Bronx — Mamdani’s worst borough in the primary — was his second best borough in the GE. More on that later.

Cuomo handily won Staten Island (due to said Sliwa collapse). Image
Read 18 tweets
Oct 24, 2025
Muslims make up ~9-12% of NYC

They flexed their political power for the first time in the June primary

A key reason those polls were so off was because Muslims were under-polled (difficult to get to take polls, due in part to post-9/11 wariness of giving away any personal info)
My likely voter model estimates them to make up 8% of the likely electorate (they make up 7% of registered voters).

I have not seen other pollsters release their weights of Muslim voters in NYC. They should. They are the sleeping giant of NYC electoral politics.
@amitsinghbagga and I spent extra time & money targeting sample in Muslim-heavy zipcodes in our July poll of the mayoral race, and we still struggled to reach even the bare minimum of a readable sample size (n=50) for a crosstab subgroup.
Read 4 tweets

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