Adam Carlson Profile picture
Jun 25 9 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Let's take a trip down Demographics Avenue, shall we? (courtesy of this incredible tool from the New York Times)

Mamdani is winning majority Asian precincts by 15 points.

And not just South Asian bastions like Jackson Heights.

East Asian bastions like Sunset Park & Chinatown. Image
Mamdani is winning majority Latino precincts by 6.5 points.

Outside of the Bronx, he cleaned up almost everywhere, including Sunset Park West & Bushwick in Brooklyn, and Corona & Woodhaven in Queens. Image
Mamdani is winning majority white precincts by 5 points

He lost the UES, UWS & wealthier parts of Manhattan

He obviously got smoked in the orthodox Jewish hubs (Borough Park, Crown Heights, South Williamsburg)

And he lost heavily ethnic white parts of South BK & Staten

But... Image
He won most of Bay Ridge in South Brooklyn (my neighborhood!), and not just the Middle Eastern parts to the east.

He dominated the "Commie Corridor" of western Queens, Brooklyn west and northwest of Prospect Park, and Morningside Heights in Manhattan.
Cuomo only won majority Black precincts by 19 points. Polls had him with a much larger lead among Black voters.

Mamdani did well in gentrifying areas with more younger Black voters, including Harlem, Bed Stuy, Lefferts Gardens, and Flatbush.

He did poorly everywhere else. Image
Cuomo won precincts where the median household income is under $50K by 13 points.

Most of that is concentrated in the Bronx, but turnout was also pretty anemic there compared to 2021. Image
Mamdani won precincts where the median household income is $50-$100K by 9 points. Image
Mamdani won precincts where the median household income is $100K+ by 13 points.

He was especially strong in west Queens, Brownstone Brooklyn, and most of Manhattan below Prospect Park. Image

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Adam Carlson

Adam Carlson Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @admcrlsn

Jul 15
Ah yes HarrisX, the same pollster that had Cuomo up 52-28 in the final round over Mamdani the day before the Democratic primary.

Only a 36-point miss, so close! Image
Just gonna leave this right here:

semafor.com/article/12/19/…
Read 4 tweets
Jul 11
New poll from Gallup:

30% say immigration should be reduced (down from 55% last year)

79% say immigration is a good thing for the country (all-time high) and 17% say it’s a bad thing (all-time low)

Pathways to citizenship ⬆️

Measures to deter/reverse illegal immigration ⬇️ Image
Image
Image
35% of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of immigration, including 21% strongly approving.

62% disapprove of his handling of immigration, including 45% strongly disapproving.

45% of independents *strongly disapprove* of how he’s handling it. Image
Can someone check on @mattyglesias please
Read 4 tweets
Jul 3
Let’s go through — one by one — 16 of the most vulnerable Republican House incumbents for 2026 that voted for this abomination of a bill that cuts Medicaid & SNAP benefits for millions of Americans, while cutting taxes for the rich.

Remember this day.

Remember these names.

🧵
**AZ-01: DAVID SCHWEIKERT**

Northeast Maricopa County

2024 House: 🔴 R+3.8
2022 House: 🔴 R+0.9

2024 Pres: 🔴 R+3.1
2020 Pres: 🔵 D+1.5

Avg Wins Above Replacement (WAR) Score, 2018-2024: 🔵 -2.7

Cook: 🟡 Toss-Up
Sabato: 🟡 Toss-Up

District Medicaid Enrollment: 19% Image
**AZ-06: JUAN CISCOMANI**

Southeast AZ & Tucson Suburbs

2024 House: 🔴 R+2.5
2022 House: 🔴 R+1.4

2024 Pres: 🔴 R+0.7
2020 Pres: 🔵 D+0.1

Avg Wins Above Replacement (WAR) Score, 2022-2024: 🔵 -2.9

Cook: 🟡 Toss-Up
Sabato: 🟡 Toss-Up

District Medicaid Enrollment: 23% Image
Read 17 tweets
Jun 26
If this is true, barring an act of god Eric Adams has zero path to victory in November.
Adams charitably had a 40% chance of winning if it was a 1:1 race vs. Mamdani, with a coalition of Black, Jewish, moderate, conservative, uber wealthy, non-college & low income New Yorkers

But even then he needed everything to go right to have a shot

With Sliwa in, it’s Joever
Mamdani should run through the tape regardless and take absolutely nothing for granted, and work to maximize the size of his citywide mandate.

But…I mean…the math is just not there to take him down in a 3 or 4-way race.
Read 4 tweets
Jun 26
If you know even a single thing about Boston politics and governance, you’d know that this is laughably false.
1) 17K new affordable housing already built or being built

2) Free bus routes in subway desert areas (Black & Brown neighborhoods)

3) New accountability standards for police

4) $50M in funding to improve apartment complexes in Jamaica Plain
5) Guaranteed summer jobs to every Boston public school student

6) Formed a rent stabilization advisory committee

7) More bike lanes

8) More community access program grants

9) Programs to increase nightlife and investments in the food scene
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(