Adam Carlson Profile picture
Jun 25 9 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Let's take a trip down Demographics Avenue, shall we? (courtesy of this incredible tool from the New York Times)

Mamdani is winning majority Asian precincts by 15 points.

And not just South Asian bastions like Jackson Heights.

East Asian bastions like Sunset Park & Chinatown. Image
Mamdani is winning majority Latino precincts by 6.5 points.

Outside of the Bronx, he cleaned up almost everywhere, including Sunset Park West & Bushwick in Brooklyn, and Corona & Woodhaven in Queens. Image
Mamdani is winning majority white precincts by 5 points

He lost the UES, UWS & wealthier parts of Manhattan

He obviously got smoked in the orthodox Jewish hubs (Borough Park, Crown Heights, South Williamsburg)

And he lost heavily ethnic white parts of South BK & Staten

But... Image
He won most of Bay Ridge in South Brooklyn (my neighborhood!), and not just the Middle Eastern parts to the east.

He dominated the "Commie Corridor" of western Queens, Brooklyn west and northwest of Prospect Park, and Morningside Heights in Manhattan.
Cuomo only won majority Black precincts by 19 points. Polls had him with a much larger lead among Black voters.

Mamdani did well in gentrifying areas with more younger Black voters, including Harlem, Bed Stuy, Lefferts Gardens, and Flatbush.

He did poorly everywhere else. Image
Cuomo won precincts where the median household income is under $50K by 13 points.

Most of that is concentrated in the Bronx, but turnout was also pretty anemic there compared to 2021. Image
Mamdani won precincts where the median household income is $50-$100K by 9 points. Image
Mamdani won precincts where the median household income is $100K+ by 13 points.

He was especially strong in west Queens, Brownstone Brooklyn, and most of Manhattan below Prospect Park. Image

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More from @admcrlsn

May 30
Here are 10 reasons to not rank Cuomo on your primary ballot, even if you have issues w/ Mamdani’s policies (🧵)

1) NY’s AG found that he sexually harassed 11 women

2) NY’s AG found that he understated the toll of COVID-19-related deaths in state nursing homes by as much as 83%
3) He empowered a power-sharing arrangement between moderate Dems (IDC) & Republicans in the state Senate, which prevented NY from codifying abortion rights, enacting stronger gun control & expanding legal recourse available to people who say they were sexually abused as children
4) He cut $65M of funding for a rental assistance program, which led to a loss of $27M in federal funds, leading to surge in NYC homelessness

5) He cut funding to the MTA and prioritized flashy projects over basic subway maintenance (plus had them bail out state-run ski resorts)
Read 7 tweets
Apr 27
It’s rare that we get to examine Asian Americans’ political views. Pollsters often combine them with all other non-White/Black/Latino groups due to insufficient n-size

But in the latest Pew poll (4/7-13) we got a detailed breakdown re: Trump job approval (among English speakers) Image
The avg of all 5 crosstabs from Month 3 of Trump’s term among Asian Americans are a bit better for Trump at 36% approve, 61% disapprove.

That puts them about on par with Latinos (38-59).

For context, 2024 exit polls showed Asians backing Harris 55-40 & Latinos backing her 51-46
Here are the individual polls measuring Trump’s approval rating among Asian Americans from Month 3 of his second term:

AtlasIntel: 🔴 30-70
HarrisX (Harvard CAPS): 🟢 49-45
McLaughlin (R): 🔴 44-56
Pew: 🔴 29-69
YouGov (UMass Amherst): 🔴 27-64
Read 4 tweets
Apr 16
Wild story in the WSJ.

It’s paywalled so I’ll screenshot some key excerpts below.

But basically it’s about how Mark Zuckerberg spent millions trying to suck up to Trump so Meta only had to pay $450M (instead of $30B that the FTC wanted) to settle an antitrust case against them. Image
We really didn’t deserve Lina Image
Image
Read 6 tweets
Dec 17, 2024
Ladies and gentlemen, your initial 2026 House battleground districts Image
Tier two races (could become competitive under the right circumstances) Image
Districts highlighted in light blue = won by Harris and House Republican candidate

Districts highlighted in light red = won by Trump and House Democratic candidate
Read 4 tweets
Nov 16, 2024
I guess we shouldn’t have passed the Affordable Care Act then, since a majority opposed it at the time.

i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2010/image… x.com/jonfavs/status…Image
Lest we forget that the ensuing electoral shellacking Democrats took in 2010 led to President Romney two years later.
In 2004 Democrats should also definitely have supported an amendment to the U.S. Constitution to define marriage as being between one man and one woman since a majority supported it.

"There go the people. I must follow them, for I am their leader."

pewresearch.org/politics/2004/…Image
Read 4 tweets
Nov 9, 2024
Based on race calls from AP & DDHQ (plus a candidate concession), here’s where the House stands:

🔴 Republican: 216 (+2 tilting R)
🔵 Democrats: 209 (+4 tilting D)

Ds need an inside straight

Let’s go district by district for the 10 races that are still too close to call:

🧵 Image
#AKAL

No update, with Begich (R) leading Peltola (D) by just over 10K votes (or 4.1 pts) with 76% reporting.

A lot of the remaining vote appears to be from rural areas, which should help Peltola given its high Alaska Native population.

Probably Tilt R but a lot left to count
#AZ06

Ciscomani (R) regained the lead over Engel (D) after a drop in red Pinal County.

He’s up 1,795 votes (or 0.5 pts) with 76% reporting.

Engel needs extra favorable drops in blue Pima County to have a shot.

Tilt R
Read 11 tweets

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