Thread by @MENAUnleashed

🇷🇺🇪🇬IRAN’S VICTORY AGAINST ISRAEL HAS EMBOLDENED RUSSIA TO EXPAND DE-DOLLARISATION TO EGYPT, CREATING A NEW FINANCIAL AXIS IN THE REGION:
Egypt will now repay its debts to Russia in rubles. At first glance this seems like a routine technical adjustment. In reality it signals a deep shift in the region’s financial architecture and geopolitical alignments. (1/15)

The original debt dates back to 2015. In 2024 the two governments amended the agreement to settle repayments in rubles. Putin has just ratified this. The implications extend far beyond bilateral debt. (2/15)

Egypt’s trade deficit with Russia is longstanding. It imports far more than it exports. Until now this created pressure on hard currency reserves. With ruble settlement Egypt is incentivized to build ruble liquidity domestically. (3/15)

That liquidity can come from several channels. Russian tourism may resume. Ruble-denominated bank accounts and card transfers may expand. Local businesses may begin transacting in rubles. This creates a circulation mechanism within Egypt for rubles. (4/15)

This model enables what can be called ruble recycling. Rubles enter the Egyptian economy through trade and tourism. The state then collects them to service its obligations to Russia. The dollar is bypassed. The loop is closed. (5/15)

But the change is not just technical. It is geopolitical. It arrives just after the Israeli strike on Iran. Egypt now reads Iran’s survival as a strategic turning point. Russian support is increasingly viewed as a hedge against regional escalation. (6/15)

Russia is offering more than diplomatic cover. It is providing financial infrastructure. The ruble settlement is a lever of monetary autonomy. This is what BRICS leaders have long proposed in theory. It is now taking institutional form. (7/15)

Egypt is also being invited into a wider ruble-based network. Iran already trades with Russia in rubles. China has bilateral ruble-yuan arrangements. Egypt can now use rubles to import from Iran or export to Iran. The bilateral becomes multilateral. (8/15)

This is the emergence of a parallel regional financial order. It is not just de-dollarisation. It is a ruble-centric clearing system rooted in shared political alignment and mutual insulation from US financial coercion. (9/15)

At a strategic level Egypt now sees Eastern technology as superior to its Western counterparts. This perception shift demands a new orientation. Infrastructure, energy, defense and digital systems are increasingly sourced from Russia, China and Iran. (10/15)

Egypt’s participation in the ruble system is both a reflection and a reinforcement of this reorientation. It anchors financial practice in geopolitical realignment. It allows Egypt to hedge against dollar volatility while deepening its Eastern ties. (11/15)

The ruble recycling mechanism also serves Russia’s own post-sanctions goals. It exports rubles that can no longer be absorbed by Western capital markets. These rubles now circulate in allied economies as instruments of trade and debt settlement. (12/15)

The architecture is forming quietly. Russia has linked its banks to Iran. Egypt is planning yuan-denominated bonds. Egypt’s ruble settlement adds a new node. This is not a single currency zone but a multi-currency ecosystem bypassing the West. (13/15)

Egypt walks a fine line. Ruble settlement offers short-term fiscal relief. But it also signals alignment with a sanctioned bloc. Washington will read this as complicity in Russia’s sanctions survival strategy. (14/15)

Still the calculus in Cairo is shifting. Regional survival now requires financial innovation. Ruble settlement is not a symbolic act. It is a structural step toward a new regional monetary order defined by autonomy and multipolarity. (15/15)

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