The debate on EU maritime protection for the #GlobalSumudFlotilla is not only about humanitarian law. It reveals a struggle over Israel's control of the Mediterranean security order. /1
Spain, Italy, Turkey, & UK voices have backed flotilla protection. These states are not acting out of morality. They are reacting to Israel’s growing role as a Mediterranean power, projecting force far beyond its borders. /2

The Spanish government has approved a royal decree-law to legally consolidate an arms embargo on Israel, banning the sale of defence material, dual-use tech, fuel transit for military ends, and imports from illegal settlements. /1 Madrid will fully bar ships and aircraft carrying weapons or military-grade fuel from using Spanish ports or airspace. /2

Israel has officially begun annexing the West Bank by cancelling the Palestinian IDs of residents in Area C and issuing new digital permits under its own system. It starts in villages west of Jerusalem: Beit Iksa, Al-Jeeb, Nabi Samu’il, Khallayleh. /1 These permits are issued online. Residents apply through the Israeli “Coordinator” app. Their Palestinian ID number disappears. Their movement is now tied to an Israeli database.

What do these permits say?
– Valid only through Al-Jeeb checkpoint. /2

Israel just fired a space war weapon at Doha.
For the first time in history, an air-launched ballistic missile was used in combat. Boosted into orbit over Saudi, then plunging down on Qatar. The Middle East has entered the age of space warfare. 1/5 These were not cruise missiles hugging the ground. They were ballistic systems adapted from Israel’s “Sparrow” test targets, known as Golden Horizon and Rocks. Until now, no state had used them in war. 2/5

Israeli academics are now on record admitting that Yahya Sinwar’s theory of war was correct: simply, Israel cannot sustain a prolonged conflict because there aren’t enough shekels to finance it. 🧵(1/7) The mask of bravado is gone, and they’re now publicly admitting what they’ve been denying for years because keeping up the idea of an invincible Israel has become too costly. There isn’t enough manpower to power through continued war in Gaza and beyond. (2/7)

🇯🇴🇷🇺 #BREAKING | Jordan is joining Egypt and Iran in de-dollarisation with Russia. The two have just signed a visa exemption agreement for the first time. Jordan is worried and signalling to Washington that it has options beyond the USD. (1/6) The move follows the Trump–Putin summit and the reinstatement of the draft after two decades. As Amman prepares for war, the leadership is making it clear they intend to stay, and will partner with America’s allies and rivals alike to do so. (2/6)

For the first time in human history, China imposes financial sanctions on the EU. Two Lithuanian banks UAB Urbo Bankas and AB Mano Bankas are now banned from transactions and cooperation with any Chinese entity. This strategic signalling. 🧵1/ Beijing chose Lithuania deliberately. In 2022, Vilnius defied China by allowing Taiwan to open a representative office under its own name - crossing one of Beijing’s red lines. This is punishment and a warning rolled into one. 2/

🇵🇰🇮🇷🇨🇳 PREPPING FOR WAR: Is Pakistan Joining Iran & China’s Silk Road with new MoUs?

Pakistan & Iran signed 12 MoUs to boost trade from $3B to $10B, linking Pakistan to the Iran-China Silk Road: a wartime logistics pact securing overland supply chains for future wars. 1/ The MoUs cover multiple sectors, but the core aim is to merge Pakistan’s CPEC with Iran’s Eurasian corridors, bypassing US-sanctioned sea lanes. This integration deepens Pakistan & Iran’s role in China’s overland BRI logistics network. 2/

🇪🇬🇮🇱🇦🇪 EGYPT JOINS UAE-IMEC OCCUPATION OF GAZA

Israel has announced a UAE-backed water pipeline project from Egypt to Gaza’s al-Mawasi is underway ‘aiming to supply 600,000 people’ with water. This aligns with Netanyahu’s vision of a Gulf-backed and funded post-war Gaza. 🧵 1/ The pipeline originates from an Egyptian desalination plant, with equipment entering via Kerem Shalom under security oversight. Construction is set to begin soon and is expected to take several weeks. The UAE’s initiative is supported by Egypt. 2/

1/10 Trump is to impose 100% tariffs on all BRICS countries in 50 days.
Trump threatens 100 percent secondary tariffs on Russia and BRICS unless the Ukraine war ends in 50 days. 2/10 This threat constitutes the first explicit articulation of a unified economic doctrine aimed at dismantling the BRICS bloc, which Washington now perceives not as a symbolic South-South coordination platform but as a coherent adversarial axis.

The verified Iranian strike on the radome at Al Udeid Air Base and its destruction in June was not symbolic. It was surgical. Iran hit the heart of US military coordination in the Gulf. 1/7 The radome protected a key command and control node, likely tied to real-time surveillance, drone operations, and missile defence. Damaging it disrupted how the US sees, communicates, and responds in the region. 2/7

Egypt 🇪🇬 signs a strategic agreement with China 🇨🇳 to dedollarise trade and adopt yuan settlement
Egypt is following Iran’s playbook. Months before the failed US–Israel airstrike campaign on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, Tehran moved first. 1/10 It locked in agreements with Russia and China to settle trade in national currencies, linked to CIPS, and systematically removed the dollar. This was done preemptively. Egypt is now replicating the same moves after escalation. 2/10

Trump Imposes 30% Tariffs on Algeria 🇩🇿 Iraq 🇮🇶 and Libya 🇱🇾
On July 9 2025 the White House issued three nearly identical letters to the leaders of Algeria Iraq and Libya announcing a sweeping new tariff policy. 1/15 Starting August 1 the United States will impose a 30 percent tariff on all goods exported from these countries to the US market. 2/15

🇮🇱🇮🇷 After Iran's Strike, Moody's Rating of Israeli Credit Sustains a Negative Outlook:

Moody’s 7 July Baa1 rating of Israel' creditworthiness while maintaining a negative outlook has formalised a shift in perception that Israeli officials cannot spin away. (1/10) 🧵 Iran’s strike succeeded in destabilising Israel’s fiscal position in ways that no previous conflict has. The numbers tell the story. Debt to GDP is now projected to reach 75%, up from earlier expectations of 70%. (2/10)

🇩🇪 GERMANY ACCUSES CHINA OF HELPING HAMAS WITH LASER WEAPON IN GAZA DEFENCE: FIRST KNOWN USE, REMAINS UNSECURED

Germany has formally accused China of using a high-powered laser weapon against a German surveillance aircraft operating over the Red Sea. (1/13) The mission was part of Operation Aspides. The aircraft was conducting reconnaissance in support of maritime security linked to Gaza operations. The laser was fired from a Chinese warship. It forced the German aircraft to abort its mission and return to base. (2/13)

🇺🇸🇮🇷🇸🇦 Trump Imposes 10 Percent Tariffs on Iran, Saudi, UAE, Egypt, Algeria for Ties to BRICS (1/11) Trump's 6 July tariff decree, a 10% levy on any country aligning with what he terms the anti-American policies of BRICS is the calculated fulfilment of a warning he issued in December 2024, when he pledged tariffs of up to 100 per cent on both BRICS members & partners. (2/11)

🇮🇱🇦🇪 THE UAE IS SUPPORTING A COUP AGAINST NETANYAHU:

Their diplomatic recognition of Yair Lapid is a political intervention in Israel’s domestic sphere reflecting a rift between the UAE and Netanyahu’s regional visions. (1/9) There are deep structural tensions between the Emirati model of regional order and the ethno-religious vision advanced by Netanyahu’s coalition. What appears on the surface as a scheduling choice in foreign diplomacy is in fact a strategic act of regime preference. (2/9)

🇸🇾🇶🇦 QATAR IS NOW SYRIA'S MOST STRATEGIC ALLY POST-ASSAD:

In just months, Qatar has overtaken Turkey, signing 4 major deals with Syria: covering gas, power, aid, food, media & public salaries, gaining unprecedented influence over Syria’s core state functions. (1/12) This is the fastest & most comprehensive endorsement Qatar has extended to a regional government. Saudi has so far done little for Syria. The UAE has done more but still falls behind Qatar. This reflects different strategic instincts. Smaller Gulf states often move faster. (2/12)

🇪🇬 EGYPT REJECTS RED SEA MILITARISATION:
Cairo has recently issued a firm warning against the establishment of foreign military bases along the Red Sea, signalling Egypt’s acute concern over the creeping encirclement and strategic suffocation it faces as rival powers intensify their contest over this vital maritime corridor. The Egyptian position, announced amid growing external deployments, underscores Cairo's frustration with being sidelined in a theatre historically regarded as a cornerstone of its national security doctrine. (1/7) A regional dynamic is crystallising wherein the Red Sea, rather than functioning as a shared commercial conduit, is being remade into a militarised frontier. The United States has expanded its logistical footprint at Logistical Support Area Jenkins, a newly reinforced base 20 miles inland from Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast. This facility, developed since 2022, has transformed into a critical node for sustaining operations in the event of broader conflict with Iran or its regional proxies, particularly the Houthis in Yemen. (2/7)

Iran’s First Ever Railway Connection to China May Have Been the War Trigger In late May 2025, Iran quietly inaugurated its first direct railway connection to China. 1/17 The freight line, originating in Xi’an and terminating at the Aprin dry port near Tehran, traverses Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. It forms part of a broader Belt and Road Initiative corridor and represents a geopolitical rupture of considerable magnitude. 2/17

Trump Admits Iran Won, Cancels Sanctions Relief as a Spite

Trump’s latest Truth Social post is a tacit admission that Iran won the war. He says he was working on lifting sanctions, sanctions that have crippled Iran’s economy for years, and was preparing a path for Iran’s “full, fast, and complete recovery.” But then, after Khamenei declared victory, Trump canceled it all. That’s a reaction to power.