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Crémieux Profile picture
@cremieuxrecueil
Jun 25 • 4 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
ADHD is a condition that's suffered from diagnostic drift: it's been defined more leniently over time, so more people are getting diagnosed.

One way to see this is to look at the benefits of taking ADHD medication. As prescription rates increased, the benefits have declined. Image
Another way to understand diagnostic drift is to look at the factors that promote it.

For example, school accountability laws lead to more diagnoses and, as a result, more psychoactive drug prescriptions.

Schools are pressured by law into making this happen. Image
An even more direct way to understand ADHD's diagnostic drift is to look at what types of diagnoses happen over time.

The increase has been more about non-severe ADHD than clinical ADHD. In other words, people with less and lesser symptoms are getting diagnosed. Image
And of course, plenty of people just want to get diagnosed to get the drugs. Go out and ask people, and you can quickly find examples.

Sources:

jamanetwork.com/journals/jamap…

sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

acamh.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jc…

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More from @cremieuxrecueil

Crémieux Profile picture
Jun 24
I have a story to break.

Columbia is still practicing racially discriminatory admissions in defiance of the Supreme Court's ruling in SFFA v. Harvard.

Newly-leaked data shows they still prefer less-qualified Blacks and Hispanics over more-qualified Asians🧵Image
Columbia has made a big show of "complying" with SFFA v. Harvard by noting that their 2024 batch of admits involved slightly less discrimination:

Fewer Black and Hispanic students, more Asian students.

That's what should happen, because Asian students tend to perform better.Image
But, with this leaked admissions data, we can see that race still predicts admissions.

With fair admissions, race should not have a significant effect, and it should not be directionally consistent.

And yet, in this data, it's clear Columbia still discriminates against Asians. Image
Read 14 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
Jun 21
Today's big biotech win is that we might be on the verge of a cure for type-1 diabetes🧵

Twelve diabetics were injected with stem cell-derived pancreatic islets.

They started producing insulin again.

One year in, 10/12 participants no longer needed to inject insulin. Image
In that chart, you can see the response to a meal.

At baseline, blood sugar levels go dangerously high (right) because participants don't produce insulin at all (proxied by C-peptide levels, left).

But notice the blood sugar and C-peptide levels after treatment: Image
With treatment, the patients kept getting better and better.

Their pancreatic function improved over time, and they became more and more able to handle food, and to do so without the need to inject insulin. Image
Read 10 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
Jun 20
About a year after this analysis came out, the Wall Street Journal published another one, with much clearer evidence🧵

It compares three adjacent counties located in three different states—Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York. Image
These states are very differently partisan.

Ohio is Republican-controlled, New York is a Democratic bastion, and Pennsylvania? They split the difference. Image
These states vary as expected given their partisanship along many dimensions.

For example, Ohio has the lowest cigarette taxes in the group. Consistently, it also has the highest smoking-related death rate of the three. Image
Read 8 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
Jun 20
When the ADL counts up extremist violence, they count too many "right wing" incidents due to a methodological error they still make today:

They count gang violence, in and outside of prisons, as right wing extremist violence. This includes stuff like drug deals gone wrong. Image
When Business Insider reviewed the ADL's highlighted incidents, they found that few of the incidents were correctly classified.

When some Aryan Nation guy stabs another one, the ADL would include it, but reasonable people would not.Image
Unfortunately, like many statistics, the ADL's counts on extremist violence cannot be taken at face value.

Note: Business Insider only removed things from the ADL's list; they did not go out of their way to find all incidents. The distribution of extremist incidents is unknown.
Read 4 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
Jun 18
I think a major 'theme' of my account is that the world is rarely surprising or overwhelmingly complex, that most things are ordinary and not mysterious when you look at them closely.

A short review thread🧵 Image
My latest article is about how major breaks in trends usually signal that the data changed rather than that the world changed.

There are few exceptions. One of them is vaccination, which genuinely does cause a massive break in disease incidence: Image
At one point in time, I believed a common, "received" piece of knowledge: that Nigerians were a "special" immigrant group that perform "exceptionally".

Someone here told me I was wrong, that I should look into that. So I did, and, indeed, I was wrong.

Image
Read 22 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
Jun 17
There are a few other drugs that have successfully and safely helped with weight loss. I'll post a few examples.

Here's Tesofensine, an SNDRI that suppresses appetite: Image
Phentermine, often as phentermine-topiramate, is an NDRA that suppresses appetite: Image
Orlistat is a pancreatic lipase inhibitor that works by blocking fat absorption: Image
Read 24 tweets

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