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Critical Threats Profile picture
@criticalthreats
Jun 25 • 3 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
NEW | A leaked, low-confidence US intelligence assessment found that the US and Israeli strikes caused “moderate to severe” damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities, but that they did not “collapse” the facility. The destruction of the centrifuges and equipment inside does not necessarily require the collapse of the facility itself. A conclusive battle damage assessment of nuclear facilities will take time, given the buried nature of Iran’s nuclear sites and limited on-site access.Image
Senior Iranian leadership suggested that Iran may not be willing to cooperate with various international organizations and treaties in the future, despite Iran’s historic and current non-adherence to such agreements.
The Iranian regime is prioritizing regime security in the wake of the Iran-Israel War. The regime has arrested hundreds of Iranians, and it has focused its efforts on Kurdish areas.

Read more from CTP and @TheStudyofWar at criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-…

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More from @criticalthreats

Critical Threats Profile picture
Jun 24
NEW | Malian junta leader Assimi Goïta met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on June 23.

The visit comes amid a spiraling security situation in Mali and across the Sahel that undermines Russia's credibility as an effective partner.🧵Image
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Goïta and Putin signed an agreement on civil nuclear energy cooperation and agreed to increase trade.

The two countries are already close security partners. Thousands of Russian soldiers are in Mali supporting the junta against Salafi-jihadi & separatist rebels. 2/7
The security partnership has largely been a failure, however.

Al Qaeda and IS affiliates in the Sahel have grown stronger since Mali and its Burkinabe and Nigerien neighbors chose Russia as their primary security partner. 3/7 Image
Read 7 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Jun 23
The Kremlin continues to only diplomatically support Iran, showcasing the limitations in the Russian-Iranian strategic relationship.

ISW continues to assess that Russia is constrained in its ability to provide direct support to Iran due to its war in Ukraine and has likely resigned itself to providing diplomatic overtures for the time being.Image
Russian officials are attempting to influence conversations about increasing NATO defense spending by misrepresenting Russia's ongoing efforts to restructure and expand Russia's military capabilities as a defensive reaction to NATO.
Putin also acknowledged his ongoing efforts to empower Russia's internal security services in order to safeguard regime stability and internal security.
Read 5 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Jun 23
NEW | Foreign companies in the Sahel are under growing pressure from both JNIM & the Sahelian juntas.

JNIM has launched an attack campaign against foreign worksites, while the juntas have continued trying to assert greater control over their countries’ natural resources.⬇️ 1/6Image
JNIM has attacked foreign worksites two times in June and threatened that all companies operating in Mali must secure permission from JNIM to continue operations in early June.

JNIM had only attacked foreign companies in 2025 two other times, both in May 2025. 2/6
The juntas have continued seizing foreign mining assets as part of their sovereigntist campaign to extract more revenue from their countries’ mineral resources.

The Burkinabe and Malian juntas have taken control of several gold mines in June.

Niger nationalized the Nigerien subsidiary of French uranium company Orano on June 19. 3/6
Read 6 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Jun 20
NEW | Iranian officials have expressed interest in negotiating an end to the Israel-Iran conflict but have not moderated their negotiating positions from before the conflict.

Iranian proposals that do not fulfill US demands, such as the US demand for zero Iranian uranium enrichment, will likely preclude Iran from reaching a new nuclear deal with the United States and a ceasefire in the Israel-Iran War.Image
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The IDF has continued to strike Iranian nuclear, military, and energy infrastructure. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said on June 19 that "preventing [Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s] existence” is one of the Israeli air campaign’s objectives.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei appointed Brigadier General Mohammad Karami as the IRGC Ground Forces commander on June 19. Khamenei’s appointment of Karami may reflect regime concerns about potential domestic unrest, given that Karami has previously been involved in suppressing internal dissent.
Read 6 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Jun 17
NEW | The IAEA confirmed that Israeli strikes have impacted underground infrastructure at the Natanz nuclear site. This came after the IAEA reported that Israeli strikes have likely damaged or destroyed thousands of centrifuges at Natanz.

A US weapons expert identified three explosive impacts above the underground enrichment facilities at Natanz on June 17.

It is unclear what damage, if any, these strikes inflicted on the complex. The IAEA stated that there has been no change to the status of the Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center or Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant.Image
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Israel has continued striking Iranian military targets, which has likely degraded Iranian missile forces significantly. This degradation is reflected in the decreasing volume of Iranian missile fire at Israel.
Israel has continued striking energy infrastructure and regime sites connected to domestic surveillance and repression. These strikes could reduce the ability of the regime to control the population and, in turn, destabilize it.
Read 8 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Jun 6
NEW | Iran is continuing to cooperate with China to replenish its solid-fuel ballistic missile stockpile after Israel destroyed Iranian solid-fuel production sites in October 2024. (1/7) Image
Unspecified sources told the Wall Street Journal on June 5 that Iran has ordered thousands of tons of ammonium perchlorate from China in recent months. Ammonium perchlorate comprises around 70 percent of the propellant of solid-fuel missiles. (2/7)
This report follows several sodium perchlorate transfers from China to Iran in recent months. Sodium perchlorate can be converted into ammonium perchlorate. (3/7)
Read 7 tweets

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