Thread by @WarintheFuture

Ukraine and Russia have learned and adapted at multiple levels since 2022. Over the last couple of years however, the adaptation battle between Ukraine and Russia has metastasized into a global adaptation war. Democracies now confront an ‘authoritarian learning and adaptation bloc’. 1/7

2/ For some time, it has been clear that the four major authoritarian regimes – Iran, North Korea, China and Russia – have a shared interest in degrading American influence and destroying the post-WW2 order. This has led to a range of different agreements, leader summits and collaborative relationships between these four nations. It may have begun years ago but has been accelerated since 2022 by the war in Ukraine.

3/ This evolving ‘learning and adaptation bloc’ has resulted in its four key participants sharing battlefield lessons, collaborating in technology development and sanctions evasion, while also sharing and collaborating on methods of coercion, subversion, misinformation and, of course, learning and adapting.

4/ The 2025 U.S Intelligence Community Annual Threat Assessment described this situation as follows:
“Bilateral relationships, largely in security and defense fields, have strengthened their individual and collective capabilities to threaten and harm the United States, as well as improved their resilience against U.S. and Western efforts to constrain or deter their activities.” dni.gov/files/ODNI/doc…

5/ But as China and Russia’s reaction to Israel’s attack on Iran shows, there are cracks and fissures in the axis of authoritarians we might be able to exploit. The last two weeks have demonstrated that the Big Four authoritarians have limits to their interaction and support for each other. Chinese and Russian support for Iran has really been restricted to media statements and expressions of ‘thoughts and prayers’.

6/ The key question is: what are the exploitable vulnerabilities in authoritarian collaboration which have been revealed in Iran, and how might western democracies exploit these vulnerabilities to reduce the impact of the new authoritarian learning and adaption bloc? Further analysis is required on this topic.

7/ Notwithstanding these potential exploitable vulnerabilities, the authoritarian learning and adaptation bloc remains a complex, multi-headed hydra that democracies must confront. You can read more about this new adaptation war here:
mickryan.substack.com/p/the-new-adap…