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Raylan Givens

@JewishWarrior13

Jun 24

🧵THE 12-DAY IRAN-ISRAEL WAR BY THE NUMBERS: As the war between Iran and Israel comes to a close, let's take a look at the achievements and losses of both sides from a purely quantitative perspective. Information courtesy of IDF Radio (Doron Kadosh) and open-source intel 👇

Starting with Iran, they managed to launch approximately 500-550 ballistic missiles and 1000+ drones at Israel, killing 27 Israeli civilians and 1 IDF soldier. Thousands more civilians were injured, and there was massive property damage to hundreds of homes and buildings.

Iran also managed to hit several strategic sites in Israel including refineries in Haifa and the Weizmann Institute in Rehovot. As for combat in their own skies, the Iranians shot down a grand total of two (2) Israeli Air Force unmanned aircraft.

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Raylan Givens

@JewishWarrior13

Jun 22

🔴🧵HOW THE WAR WITH IRAN WILL END? After 10 days of relentless Israeli strikes on Iran, the war is likely approaching its conclusion in the next week or so. Israel initiated this conflict with three main objectives: addressing the nuclear program, dismantling the ballistic missile program, and cutting off Iranian funding for proxies. Let’s explore how they have achieved each of these goals.

The primary reason for the conflict is Iran’s nuclear program. As of today, following numerous Israeli and American strikes, Iran’s nuclear capabilities are at best severely crippled and delayed for many years, and at worst, completely decommissioned. It is irrelevant whether Iran has retained stockpiles of enriched uranium because they are currently unable to use it to create a nuclear bomb. They lack both the necessary facilities and expertise, especially after Israel’s targeted elimination of their nuclear scientists.

I want to briefly address the speculation regarding Iran potentially constructing and deploying a dirty bomb with the remaining nuclear materials they possess. The Iranian regime is many things, but suicidal is not one of them. Detonating a dirty bomb in Israel or the United States would lead to the immediate annihilation of the regime and the end of Iran as we know it. Iran sought nuclear weapons as a deterrent against attacks and as part of a strategy to threaten the West through their proxies—a dirty bomb would accomplish none of these objectives.

Read 6 tweets

Raylan Givens

@JewishWarrior13

Jun 15

🧵KHAMENEI"S DILEMMA: The NYT, in an interesting expose, detailed how Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei convened Iran's Supreme National Security Council yesterday to discuss a response. According to the report, Khamenei said he wanted revenge, but did not want to act rashly.

During the meeting, there were differences of opinion on how to respond and whether to prepare for a prolonged war, given the severe damage to Iran's air defense system and missile capabilities, and the fear that the United States would also be drawn into the war. One participant warned that if Israel were to attack Iran's energy and water facilities, it could spark widespread internal protests.

During the meeting, Khamenei appeared to be facing an existential question: if he attacks and the war expand, there will be a real danger to the continuation of his rule, and if he shows restraint, this could be interpreted both at home and abroad as a defeat.

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Raylan Givens

@JewishWarrior13

May 26

🔴🧵ANALYSIS: IS HAMS SHOWING SIGNS OF A BREAKDOWN? Last week, Hams did not respond to Witkoff's proposal. They neither accepted nor rejected it, providing no response at all. However, tonight, they finally delivered a message, initially sending it to Israel. When Israel rejected the proposal, Hams publicized it through the media, likely aiming to indirectly pressure Israel. Regardless, the nature of their response suggests that Hams is under significant strain.

Food Distribution: If the Israeli-American initiative to distribute food in Gaza succeeds, Hams will lose one of its last remaining tools for controlling the population—food aid. This is a crucial point in the campaign, and the remaining leadership of the organization is undoubtedly aware of its importance.

General Situation: The situation in Gaza is dire. Unlike a year ago, when some parts of the Strip were devastated while others functioned relatively normally, the cumulative effects of ongoing destruction are now severe. Protests, which Hams can no longer suppress, serve as another indicator of its diminishing control. Additionally, there is a steady emigration from Gaza. These factors suggest that Hams may be approaching a breaking point. The leadership likely realizes that their current "resistance" holds little hope of success.

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Raylan Givens

@JewishWarrior13

May 18

🚨🧵The details of the Mossad operation to bring Eli Cohen's archive from Syria: The original documents and personal items are from the finds found in Syria. Among the documents was the original will, which Eli Cohen wrote hours before his execution and of which only a copy has been publicly revealed so far.

The special archive includes approximately 2,500 documents, photographs, and personal and original objects, most of which are being revealed for the first time. These materials were collected by Syrian intelligence after his capture in January 1965 and include recordings and documentation from the interrogation files of the late Eli Cohen and of those with whom he was in contact, handwritten letters from him to his family in Israel, photographs of his activities during his operational mission in Syria, and personal objects taken from his home after his capture.

Among his personal belongings were the keys to his apartment in Damascus, forged passports and documentation that he used, and many photos from his period of clandestine activity in Syria, including documentation of the late Eli Cohen with senior Syrian military and government officials. In addition, the numerous entries found in notebooks and diaries collected from his home by Syrian intelligence included, among other things, missions he received from the Mossad to carry out covertly, including a request to conduct surveillance on a target and a mission to bring intelligence on Syrian military bases in Contra.

The original document of the sentence and the decision to execute him was also found among the many documents. In this document, the court ruled to allow the rabbi of the Jewish community in Damascus, Rabbi Nissim Andabu, to accompany Eli Cohen in accordance with Jewish tradition.

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Raylan Givens

@JewishWarrior13

May 5

🔴🧵THE DETAILS OF OPERATION GIDEON'S CHARIOTS: From A Senior Israeli security official

Operation "Gideon's Chariots," which aims to defeat and subdue Hams in Gaza and release all hostages, was unanimously approved yesterday by the Political-Security Cabinet.

By the plan formulated by the IDF Chief of Staff and the IDF Command and approved by the Minister of Defense and the Prime Minister, the IDF will increase its forces and act forcefully to defeat and subdue Hams and destroy its military and governmental capabilities while creating intense pressure for the release of all the hostages.

Forces maneuvering from land, air, and sea will be provided with a strong protective envelope, and heavy equipment will be used to neutralize explosives and destroy threatening structures.

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