Michael McAteer Profile picture
Jun 26 9 tweets 2 min read Read on X
"At Bretton Woods, John Maynard Keynes proposed a system where both surplus and deficit countries would share responsibility for balancing trade, rather than placing the entire burden on deficit countries.
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He advocated for a global central bank, the Clearing Union, which would issue a new international currency, the "bancor," to settle imbalances.
Countries with surpluses would be encouraged to spend more or invest in deficit countries, while deficit countries would be encouraged to reduce their deficits through currency devaluation and trade restrictions."
BYD should be encouraged to manufacture their well engineered EVs in Canada. It would be a move approved by Keynes for China to mediate its trade surplus and restore balance to the global trade system.
Car manufacturing in Canada has been in decline for the last decade and Trump intends to make it permanent. Canada's automotive parts industry has soared in the last decade, though, and is embedded in North American supply chains. Image
BYD's base model EV sells in China for the U.S. equivalent of about $9,000. Of course government subsidies account for much of this low pricing, and BYD recently said these prices cannot be sustained.
But with an attractive incentive to use Canadian aluminum, a key part of modern EV manufacture, the possibility of selling EVs to the North American market for $20,000 seems a reasonable expectation.
When the total cost of ownership for an EV falls below that of an ICE vehicle, then the substitution effect will kick in. People will start installing solar panels and home storage batteries to "fuel" them and networked charging stations will become ubiquitous.
Alberta will insist on selling its oil into the world market and won't pay the cost of a commensurate plan to reduce carbon emissions. So be it, but the market for oil will largely disappear when transportation goes electric.

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More from @Monetarius

Jun 13
There is opportunity in the crisis. Canadian automobile manufacturing has been declining for over a decade and Trump has sealed its fate, however the Canadian automobile parts industry has conversely expanded and is embedded in North American supply chains.
BYD is now the world's most prolific manufacturer of EVs. Their base model sells for less than the equivalent of $10,000 US.
This low price price is achievable with significant subsidies from the Chinese government and even BYD's president recently stated that these prices are not sustainable.
Read 7 tweets
Jun 12
How large should Canada's population be? In the end it is a policy decision about immigration given the country's decline fertility.
"To illustrate the power of migration and immigration policy in shaping population, consider two extreme scenarios. The first highlights the consequences of low fertility for population change when immigration is imagined to be zero.
In this scenario, Canada’s total fertility rate continues its downward trajectory and drops to 1.0—the 2023 fertility rate in British Columbia, the lowest of all provinces—while net migration (both temporary and permanent) falls to zero.
Read 11 tweets
May 10
All revolutionaries have an eschatological bent — that their beginning necessitates the end of the order that precedes them. It was so with the Bolsheviks who understood any action they took was justified to realize their aims.
They adhered to Marx's notion that capitalism had to end by virtue of its internal contradictions that he had artfully calculated in his masterwork Capital.
When Joseph Stalin seized power, he commissioned a renowned Russian economist named Nicolai Kondratiev to study capitalist economies to determine when they will end.
Read 10 tweets
May 7
Economist Michael Pettis was alert to the problems of the global trading order when countries, in particular China and Germany, followed mercantilist "beggar thy neighbour" trade policies.
John Maynard Keynes, however was an oracle. In 1943 at Bretton Woods he anticipated the problem and proposed prophylactic solutions. One was to create an international currency to gird global trade.
The American contingent at the conference outvoted him and elected the American dollar to serve that purpose. Keynes also suggested that trade balances could be restored by the surplus carrying countries if they invested in manufacturing in their trade partners' countries.
Read 9 tweets
Apr 8
David Brooke's dismay in the May Issue of Atlantic Monthly:
"George Orwell is a useful guide to what we’re witnessing. He understood that it is possible for people to seek power without having any vision of the good.
“The Party seeks power entirely for its own sake,” an apparatchik says in 1984. “We are not interested in the good of others; we are interested solely in power. Not wealth or luxury or long life or happiness: only power, pure power.”
“The Party seeks power entirely for its own sake,” an apparatchik says in 1984. “We are not interested in the good of others; we are interested solely in power. Not wealth or luxury or long life or happiness: only power, pure power.”
Read 5 tweets
Apr 2
Lots of attention being payed by CNN to two elections in the U.S. The Republicans (you might as well call the party MAGA) won a congressional seat in Florida. CNN is projecting a win for the seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court.
It is a position that is ideally though to be non-partisan, but the contenders in this race are being identified as conservative and the other, liberal, such is the hardened ideological line in politics today.
It is no less so in the current Canadian election. Poilievre is in free fall trying to distance himself from the most unpopular man looming in the Canadian consciousness.
Read 4 tweets

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