Michael McAteer Profile picture
Questioning in the spirit of rationality and freedom the habits and tendencies of the Zeitgeist. Looking through Kondratiev's lens.
Dec 8 5 tweets 2 min read
Why it was all down hill after 1980 — the Kondratiev long wave of economic activity. Machiavelli said it simply in the 15th C. that the republic becomes unbalanced when the elites, instead of being accommodative of the people, keep too much for themselves. Image Most people probably assumed that the assassination of United Healthcare's CEO on the streets of Manhattan was by someone who held a personal grudge against the insurer, perhaps someone who was denied a claim or close to someone affected this way.
Oct 15 6 tweets 2 min read
Kondratiev in 1927 observed that capitalist economies exhibit a regular long wave of economic activity of between 45-60 years, ending in deflationary depression. The last wave started around 1950 when GDP took off like a rocket. There were several years of "super-inflation" before it settled back to start an upward trend that culminated in the mid-wave crisis of 1980. The last deflationary depression announced itself with the global financial crisis in 2008. It lasted a decade.
Oct 11 4 tweets 1 min read
Poilivere's folk libertarianism and much economic commentary from the populist right attempts to revive the stale dated theories of Milton Friedman and "Austrian" economics that tout the superiority of markets to regulate economies when they fail, ...hence their calls to eliminate central banks and limit the role of government. New Keynesians argue that macroeconomic stabilization by the government (using fiscal policy) and the central bank (using monetary policy) can lead to a more efficient macroeconomic outcome...
Oct 9 5 tweets 1 min read
After fiddling with the hinges on my front door to close the gaps before putting on weather stripping, I've come to the conclusion that Robertson head wood screws suck. They were invented by a Canadian but the Americans would have nothing of it, preferring the star shaped Phillips head over the square receptacle of the Robertson.
Aug 23 6 tweets 2 min read
"Naur" and the phonetician's quest for the "bunched r". There was a time not so long ago when female Australians were hired as broadcasters in North America, presumably because they sounded "cute" in their unusual accent, but I haven't noticed this phenomenon of late.
Aug 17 7 tweets 1 min read
When I see the hostility that residents of Weyburn demonstrated recently towards a wind farm project, I can't help reflect on how attitudes towards wind energy just south of the border in North Dakota are entirely different. ND currently generates about 40% of their total electrical demand from wind. A large portion of that total is from rural cooperatives who commercialized their wind turbine installations.
Jul 25 6 tweets 1 min read
"XNY 556 A for Apple"...The Junior Forest Rangers was a Canadian kids TV series that inspired me when I was older to spend two summers working for the Alberta Forest Service planting trees in Willmore Wilderness Park, north of Jasper. I spent many weekends hiking and camping in Jasper National Park. In the summer, fire suppression is top of mind in the forest service. With the town of Jasper burned out, fingers are being pointed at governments who supposedly failed at proper forest management.
Jul 7 12 tweets 2 min read
Poilievre is a folk libertarian who doesn't believe in government. I think we should have the smallest government as possible. It's the "as possible" that is the hard part to work out. The Liberal response to the global deflationary depression followed by the supply shocks and other economic dislocations caused by the pandemic, was Keynesian in their willingness to use deficit financing to increase government expenditures.
Jun 28 8 tweets 2 min read
Delusional to say the least, but it portends a reordering of the Democratic Party into a new form, much as the Republicans morphed into a neo-fascist movement. It's impossible to say what political consciousness will direct the Democrats in the future—resolute liberal centrism, or a push farther left. I suspect they will try to re-capture the middle ground. Image
Jun 23 4 tweets 1 min read
When I see the Trump campaign I marvel at the failure of reason, and the more so knowing it is acceptable to many people. It's a social psychosis where the three estates of society morph into their syzygies—their "evil twins".
Jun 8 4 tweets 1 min read
Why did Canada comply with Trump's hostage taking of Meng Wanzhou, CFO of Huawei Technologies. Was it out of fear of retaliation, perhaps on soft lumber exports? Meng Wanzhou was never convicted by the Americans, presumably due to a lack of evidence. Recall at the time that senior retired Canadian diplomats publicly inveighed the government to exercise the ministerial prerogative to override Meng's arrest warrant knowing that American claims were a crock and Canada did not have sanctions on trade with Iran.
Jun 6 6 tweets 1 min read
Image H5N1 avian flu is zoonotic...it can jump species. Dairy herds in the U.S. are now infected. The worry is if it infects pigs. The genomic structure of pigs is close enough to humans that scientists are experimenting with the transplant of pig organs into humans.
Jun 4 5 tweets 1 min read
Poilievre's strategy is to promote fear...it's the content of his propaganda and we know from experience if you tell lie often enough, it will eventually be believed. The idea that the country must be "saved" is the first argument of every fascist in history. Montreal is #2 on Forbes magazine list of the safest cities in the world.
May 6 8 tweets 2 min read
Some charts are very expressive of phenomena that occur over very long spans of time, making them more apparent to people whose horizon of expectation hardly extends past a year. It's a forest and trees problem. The concentration of wealth in capitalist societies reoccurs with the Kondratiev wave until it is relieved by a more equitable distribution of wealth that comes with a resurgent economy based on new forms of production that technology makes possible.
May 6 8 tweets 2 min read
Some charts are very expressive of phenomenon that occur over very long spans of time, making them less apparent to people whose horizon of expectation hardly extends past a month. It's a forest and trees problem. The concentration of wealth in capitalist societies reoccurs with the Kondratiev wave until it is relieved by a more equitable distribution of wealth that comes with a resurgent economy based on new forms of production that technology makes possible.
Apr 16 4 tweets 1 min read
That central banks underestimated the rebound of inflation commensurate with the start of a new long wave of economic activity is not surprising in light of Nicolai Kondratiev's observation that capitalist economies exhibit a wave phenomenon of between 45 and 60 years. The last wave announced itself around 1950 (if you look at GDP data). There was a significant period of "super inflation" before the economy settled into a long term period of equilibrium of gradually uptrendng inflation that peaked in the hyper inflation crisis of 1980.
Mar 2 4 tweets 1 min read
Poilievre's sloganeering of "Bring It Home" and "Common Sense" is nothing more than a regurgitation of the reactionary sentiments of the global rise of populist conservatism that are based on old forms of racism that see philosophical viewpoints as arising out of "soil and blood" "These historical narratives using the nineteenth-century concept of degeneration to argue that simple, original, pure forms of philosophy gradually changed into more complex, degenerate forms, identifying complexity with decadence.
Feb 22 4 tweets 1 min read
"Anti-Globalism" is a handy leitmotif in the the song and dance of the populist right-wing. says that in simple words, globalism is: "The attitude or policy of placing the interests of the entire world above those of individual nations."Dr.Google This would seem consistent with the claims of rightists that climate change is a hoax, or at least the concerns founding the call to radically reduce CO2 emissions are overly alarmist, and that the Paris Accords and "Zero 2050" objectives should be abandoned.
Feb 16 4 tweets 1 min read
Totalitarian regimes cannot countenance dissent. It is an ontological impossibility, so even "thought crimes" are prosecuted with extreme prejudice. Nicolai Kondratiev, to whom I often refer, was a Russian economist who observed long waves of economic activity in capitalist economies that last 45 to 60 years and then repeat.
Jan 24 6 tweets 1 min read
Judge Morley's decision condemning the federal government’s use of the Emergencies Act reflects the biases of one man. The next step is the Federal Court of Appeal where no less than three judges will review the case. If it elects to hear a further appeal, nine judges of the Supreme Court of Canada will render a judgment.
Jan 13 4 tweets 1 min read
Walter Benjamin (1892-1940) had a first hand view of the rise of fascism. Image He said, fascism tends towards an aestheticization of politics, in the sense of a spectacle in which it allows the masses to express themselves without seeing their rights recognized, and without affecting the relations of ownership which the proletarian masses aim to eliminate: