... coupled with a weaker dollar are also factors that seem supportive of Oil.
Per @Reuters; "The market is starting to digest the fact that crude oil inventories are very tight all of a sudden".
2/8
This is as Brent futures and WTI futures hit 1.7% and 2.03% to reach "$68.83 [Brent] a barrel at 11:37 a.m. EDT (1637 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up $1.32, or 2.03%, to $66.24 a barrel."
3/8
Inventory Slump:
Nicole Jao highlights the dip in U.S. Oil inventories reporting that: "U.S. crude oil and fuel inventories fell in the week to June 20 as refining activity and demand rose".
4/8
Also supporting oil prices, is the US Dollar as "the dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, sank to a three-year low", as "crude inventories fell by 5.8 million barrels".
5/8
Zero Equilibrium Takes:
• Going forward, demand dynamics would likely shape price movements as supply increases are tepid at the moment.
• The U.S. remains a major consumer and producer market, as China, the traditional demand house for the past two decades...
6/8
...continues to struggle with boosting investment and consumption demand locally.
• This, coupled with the steady supply from Russia and Iran, mutes Chinese economy's oil demand effects in the markets.
7/8
• Oil is expected to remain damage blind at level we would prescribe at the end of Q2.
Cc: @Reuters
8/8
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On Milei’s “New Feat”: Why the dust Has not Settled.
A lot has been said about the Argentine economic growth, as they return to positive territory leaving out the hidden conjectures as economists on tos X space seem focused on the surface data.
1/11
This misses the broader context that challenges the narrative around the Milei turnaround.
The 5.8% growth is nothing but a marginal improvement at grave costs with sustainability in doubt, and the countries economic situation is just as precarious and unstable as before.
2/11
I'd address the two largest achievements that has been used to tout Mileinomics to show the masked distraught economic situation.
Inflation:
Milei's adminstration begun with as steep fiscal and monetary tightening, this crushed aggregate demand, and...
The Iran-Israel War: What It Means for Oil & Gold Prices 🧵.
The war between Iran & Israel aren't just geopolitics, they ripple through global markets. Oil and gold are first responders. We outline how the war affects both commodities.
#OilPrices #Gold #MiddleEast
1/11
#OilPrices:
Volatility is on high alert
as the Middle East holds over 30% of the world’s oil. Any threat to shipping lanes like the Strait of Hormuz (which Iran borders) sends oil prices climbing, due to supply fears and risk premium attached to the commodity.
#OilPrices
2/11
In April 2024, even threats of Iranian retaliation sent Brent crude surging above $90. Imagine the impact if the war escalates to disrupt physical flows? We could see a $100 oil.
Chapter 7 Central Banking and Money Market Challenges 🧵 4/4:
Limited Scope of Action:
Unless the Central Bank acts strongly to decrease money supply, monetary policy has only a limited domain of effectiveness in controlling inflationary pressures."
1/26
Still, he maintains that monetary policy has "very limited effectiveness both in controlling inflation and in counteracting a depression".
A reverse side to the increase in velocity is that "every institutional innovation which results in both new ways to finance...
2/26
...business and new substitutes for cash assets decreases the liquidity of the economy".
This means even though he amount of money does not change, the liquidity of the community decreases when government debt is replaced by private debt in commercial banks portfolios. 3/ 26
...Minsky asserted that "once nonfinancial corporations are habituated to making "loans" with government debt as collateral, the possibility exists that collateralized loans using nongovernmental paper will develop".
2/14
Such a development he says, "would entail greater possibilities of capital losses in a liquidity crisis which, in turn would affect the stability of nonfinancial corporations."
He suggested allowing commercial banks pay interest on demand deposits as a...
3/14
..for government bondhouses in mid-1956. In a repurchase agreement, the lending entity receives a stated contractual interest rate in he future, on the bond he purchased from the borrower, upon whom the payment liability lies.
2/22
Government bondhouses could also finance their inventory with sales and repo agreements with the federal reserve system., and also by borrowing at commercial banks.
"Sales and repurchase agreements between government bondhouses and...
3/22
Chapter 7: Central Banking and Money Market Challenges 🧵 1/4:
In this chapter, Minsky analyses and discussed the effects (and relationship) between Central banks and the money market and how it affects the overall economy. As well as the role/ aims of the central bank.
The ability of the Central Bank to achieve it's aim is greatly dependent on how it's policies and operations affect various aspects that make up the money market. "Hence the efficacy of any particular technique of monetary policy depends upon...
2/21
...the financial institutions and usages that exist."
[This is to say, that monetary policy effectiveness depends on the structure —and level of development—of the financial markets.]
He argues that, "if financial institutions do not change significantly,...
3/21