Joni Askola Profile picture
Jun 27, 2025 6 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1/6 Finlandization 2.0?

When watching Western leaders interact with Trump, it’s hard not to get Finlandization vibes.

Not toward the USSR this time—but toward the US.

Are we entering Finlandization 2.0, where the West bends to Trump’s chaos instead of standing firm? Image
2/6 Trump, like Putin, is a classic schoolyard bully:

He pushes the weak, but backs down when faced with strength.

Iran said no—now he’s offering them money.

Canada, trade wars, Putin—every time someone stood firm, he backed off.

Appeasement only feeds him Image
3/6 Yet Western leaders keep tiptoeing around him.

Rutte’s messages were posted by Trump to mock him.

Stubb and many other European leaders speak of Trump with caution that feels eerily familiar to Cold War-era Finland.

We know who Trump is—and still act like he rules us Image
4/6 Trump is pro-russian, anti-West, and destabilizing.

He weakens alliances, empowers authoritarians, and accelerates the decline of the US hegemony.

And yet…we let him decide Europe’s fate with Putin.

Why are we so afraid to say no? Image
5/6 Appeasement has its strategic uses—but bullies don’t respect it.

They exploit it.

Ukraine appeased russia for years—got invaded in 2014.

I am not saying every Western leader should confront Trump all the time.

But sometimes, someone has to say no Image
6/6 After nearly a decade of appeasing Trump, maybe it’s time to try something else.

Not everywhere, not always—but when he crosses the line. Often.

Because if we keep bending, we risk breaking.

And the West can’t afford to break Image

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More from @joni_askola

Feb 2
1/11 The war is far from over, but Ukraine is still winning.

Here is how we can make sure that it defeats Russia 🧵 Image
2/11 Russia’s 2022 invasion is a genocide.

They use genocidal rhetoric to justify erasing Ukraine's identity. They kidnap children and commit daily war crimes to punish civilians for simply refusing to be Russian.

This is a systematic attempt to destroy a nation Image
3/11 The human cost is massive.

In Mariupol, the death toll in 3 months potentially exceeded the total deaths in Gaza throughout the entire war, despite a much smaller population.

People underestimate this scale and don't see that Russia is committing genocide in Europe Image
Read 11 tweets
Jan 23
1/12 “Value-Based Realism” was a major theme at Davos.

It is being sold by Stubb and Carney as a smart, pragmatic path for the West, but I think it is a strategic trap.

Here is why this new realism might actually lead to managed decline 🧵 Image
2/12 The concept is the latest intellectual fashion.

@alexstubb and @MarkJCarney are pushing it as the ultimate manual for "middle powers" like Canada, the UK, and the EU.

It sounds sophisticated to be principled yet pragmatic, but we need to look a bit closer Image
3/12 The logic is simple: stop waiting for a perfect world and deal with the brutal one we have.

It is an honest description of how we behave right now, post-Biden.

That is exactly the problem.

It takes our current failure of will and rebrands it as a high-level strategy Image
Read 12 tweets
Jan 21
1/5 Europe needs a reality check.

The strategies that worked during Trump's first term are useless now.

We tried playing nice, and it failed.

It is high time to stop the appeasement and start facing reality Image
2/5 The time for Europeans to appease Trump is over.

We have spent the last year watching our tactics from "Trump 1" fail miserably in "Trump 2."

Flattery and silence do not work anymore.

He sees them as weakness, not respect Image
3/5 Trump lives in a bubble of total confirmation.

He is surrounded by sycophants who are too afraid to tell him the truth or challenge his worst impulses.

Because no one in his inner circle dares to confront him, he believes he can bully Europe without consequence Image
Read 5 tweets
Jan 20
1/8 Europe is sleepwalking into a forever war because we are too afraid to actually win.

We need to stop managing the conflict and start ending it.

Here is how 🧵 Image
2/8 Europe has the power to end the war in Ukraine much faster but it requires a total shift in strategy.

We need to stop managing the conflict and start winning it.

Here is the roadmap to force a Russian collapse👇 Image
3/8 We must help Ukraine scale its domestic defense industry in every possible way.

This means direct funding and technical advice.

A Ukraine that can build its own weapons is a Ukraine that can sustain the fight without relying solely on foreign logistics Image
Read 8 tweets
Jan 15
1/7 Trump is no isolationist:

He is a show interventionist, a cowardly form of imperialist interventionism that is also meant to entertain the world Image
2/7 Trump's entire campaign was built on the lie that he would end wars and stop regime change operations.

It has been a year since he promised to end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours and the fighting continues Image
3/7 While he appointed isolationists to his administration, his actions tell a different story.

He claims to have ended eight wars but he hasn't ended any. In reality it looks more likely that he will start eight new ones before his term is over Image
Read 7 tweets
Jan 13
1/8 Why JD Vance is a greater threat to the American experiment than Donald Trump.

A thread on the Dark Enlightenment, eyeliner, and the end of the West🧵 Image
2/8 Trump may be the worst and most traitorous president in US history, but JD Vance is a far more calculated threat.

Trump is erratic. Vance is a disciplined, smart, and well-organized opportunist ready to dismantle democracy with precision Image
3/8 The PayPal Mafia has one foot in the White House door by installing Vance. Tech oligarch Peter Thiel effectively owns him.

Their goal is clear: move Vance into the presidency to serve their personal interests and finish the job Image
Read 8 tweets

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