Brief, top level review of Iranian missile performance: of the 30 or so hits on Israel, very few missiles actually struck anything important. There are 2-3 hits on Ramon AB, but not on anything important (they hit taxiways), and some possible hits at other airbases.
Once again, the demonstrated accuracy of Iranian missile systems just isn't all that great. Even the big salvo they got through at Glilot shows only 1/5 hits, and that "hit" is assuming the Iranians were targeting a warehouse, which I'm very skeptical of.
I have not seen much evidence of across the board increases in Iranian accuracy - the strikes on Glilot probably demonstrate a ~500m CEP...that's the only salvo where enough things got through for me to even attempt a CEP estimate.
The small salvos Iran attempted throughout the war - not by choice, but by necessity due to Israeli airpower success - simply don't have the density to achieve high rates of target destruction given their accuracy. You may recall that I said this last year after Nevatim.
The IRGC requires great increases in accuracy if they really want a credible conventional deterrent. At the current level of performance, there is effectively nothing stopping Israel from conducting the same operation in the future with similar results.
The fact that the IRGC needs a salvo of at least 300 missiles to actually do anything notable simply means that if Israeli strikes can disrupt and degrade salvo density, Iran has no military force that can respond enough to achieve deterrence.
If Iran can achieve a missile force that can destroy a specific target with a salvo of 30, the story changes, and Iran may get there eventually. But there is real tension between accuracy and BMD penetration, and that is going to be an immense bottleneck for Iran.
In a week or two I will write up a long blog post with more formal thoughts.
Of course, Iran can hit cities fine, which they've been doing - and this has resulted in about 30 Israeli casualties. There may be a couple more hits on things of military value that may come out, but the point is: Iran cannot actually target the Israeli military with any confidence, and Iran does not seem capable of doing enough damage to Israel to actually deter them.
I have no interest in getting dragged into some debate in which data is cherry picked to demonstrate accuracy or effectiveness under ideal circumstances. The core fact of the matter is Ramon, Nevatim, and the other airbases operated effectively uninterrupted throughout the entire war, and that fact alone constitutes a grave military failure.
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