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Decker Eveleth Profile picture
Decker Eveleth
@dex_eve
@JamesMartinCNS GRA. @MIIS, @NSF GRFP. @reed_college_ alum. "Normally I have to pay people to do that" - @US_Stratcom @Dex_Eve@mastodon.social
Moritz Krusche Profile picture 1 subscribed
Jan 6 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
We noted when I found Yumen silo field that the lids were odd! Wonder what precisely the problem is, perhaps the hydraulics for the system don't work. I expect that this is going to have reverberations that is going to manifest into tangible changes to China's order of battle in five years. If the PLARF can't be trusted to build a working missile force, well, give it to the Navy instead (I'm sure 董军 would love it!)
Jul 11, 2023 • 16 tweets • 5 min read
Folks, I am DELIGHTED to announce that my long-delayed PLARF order of battle has finally been released as a @JamesMartinCNS occasional paper. Let's dig into it, shall we?
https://t.co/9S9fQZeRNXnonproliferation.org/peoples-libera…
This is a 73-page report that details changes to China's land-based cruise and ballistic missile force. The PLARF continues to both expand and modernize their missile forces, with a massive expansion in ICBMs and the continued modernization of their MRBM and IRBM range forces.
Mar 20, 2023 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
North Korea has launched an SRBM from a recently dug silo at the Sohae Space Launch Center. Some important implications: North Korea is threatened with a myriad of fast or stealthy South Korean and American systems that can accurately strike targets in the DPRK in under five minutes. There are two possible solutions to this problem, and the DPRK is experimenting with both of them.
Dec 18, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Interesting article, with pictures, of one of the ROC's new anti-ship missile units. This one is in Hualien, at 24.039459°, 121.619632°. I have two observations: Point one: the ROC protects critical sites with fixed hardened missile sites built into mountains. One base at Hetian Mountian south of Hualien is pretty well known. The ROC seems to have increasingly moved in the direction of mobile launchers instead recently.
Dec 16, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
1960s Soviet war films are great. I assume if you were a director you could just call up the Soviet Army and be like "hey can I borrow a tank division or two and dress them up in German uniforms? It's for a movie" and they'd be like "sure boss go for it" "What if we also did some sick jumps with the T-34s were borrowing?"
Dec 5, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
I have finished Andor and I am not exaggerating when I say it is possibly one of the best pieces of media about authoritarianism I think I've ever seen It's also amazing that Disney let this get made in the way that it was considering its episode structure...entire episodes where nothing explodes solely dedicated to hammering home the idea that authoritarianism is inescapable no matter what you do or where you go
Nov 29, 2022 • 20 tweets • 5 min read
The 2022 CMPR is out. Let's go through it! I mostly agree with the assessment, with some caveats: The table of launchers and missiles is interesting. DoD now counts some of the new silos as deployed launchers, but not all. If DoD was counting all, the number would be closer to 400. I assume that DoD is judging some of the new silos to be finished or close to it.
Sep 16, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
A couple of thoughts datapoints on this thread: first, It's very possible we know the name of this TEL: the HTF5700HEV, which they showed us two years ago. When they showed us this vehicle, it operated in tandem with a DF-17 TEL. Two observations that make this vehicle more likely to be a transporter/reloader than a TEL IMO: first, as I pointed out in a previous thread, the vehicle doesn't appear to have any stands that would allow for the launching of a ballistic missile.