At the end of June 2025, #Russia 🇷🇺 is attempting to unify the Komar and Novopavlivka directions, but #Ukraine 🇺🇦 built a formidable defensive line to prevent this. Very soon, it will finally see utility.
Analysing the tactical-strategical situation and Ukrainian fortifications in the area, as well as predictions for future developments.
🧵Thread🧵1/⬇️
Analysing the tactical-strategical situation and Ukrainian fortifications in the area, as well as predictions for future developments.
🧵Thread🧵1/⬇️
2/🧵
The problems in this directions arose in early June, when the Ukrainians left only a rearguard in Bahatyr and the Russians broke through to Komar and Fedorivka. Because of this breakthrough, the Ukrainians were forced to temporarily divert their attention there, leaving an open window for the Russians to dash further through the vast fields of the region.
And indeed, on June 9th, DeepState reported that Russians were able to fly in between Dachne and Zaporizhzhia, but were destroyed.
On June 11th, the Russians tried again, and succeeded, crossing the Vovcha river between Dachne and Novoukrainka and entering for the second time the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast'.
After this series of breakthroughs, the Russians consolidated their bridgehead to attack Zaporizhzhia, and on June 12th the battle began and lasted 11 days, ending on June 23rd, with the Russians demonstrating their flags in the center of the village.
These breakthroughs formed numerous pockets and inconvenient positions for the Ukrainians, and the Russians are also threatening to cross the Mokri Yali and Vovcha rivers to get behind Ukrainian positions in even more areas, as well as breaching the main Ukrainian defensive line in front of Ivanivka, which we will analyze soon.
The problems in this directions arose in early June, when the Ukrainians left only a rearguard in Bahatyr and the Russians broke through to Komar and Fedorivka. Because of this breakthrough, the Ukrainians were forced to temporarily divert their attention there, leaving an open window for the Russians to dash further through the vast fields of the region.
And indeed, on June 9th, DeepState reported that Russians were able to fly in between Dachne and Zaporizhzhia, but were destroyed.
On June 11th, the Russians tried again, and succeeded, crossing the Vovcha river between Dachne and Novoukrainka and entering for the second time the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast'.
After this series of breakthroughs, the Russians consolidated their bridgehead to attack Zaporizhzhia, and on June 12th the battle began and lasted 11 days, ending on June 23rd, with the Russians demonstrating their flags in the center of the village.
These breakthroughs formed numerous pockets and inconvenient positions for the Ukrainians, and the Russians are also threatening to cross the Mokri Yali and Vovcha rivers to get behind Ukrainian positions in even more areas, as well as breaching the main Ukrainian defensive line in front of Ivanivka, which we will analyze soon.
3/🧵
Let's look at this breakthrough in more detail. In its western part, the Russians were only able to capture Perebudova, using the dense urban area as cover for their advancements, but are suffering losses in trying to move further west to Myrne because of Ukrainian drone operators tightly controlling the open area in between the 2 settlements.
As you can see from the photo below, the Ukrainians were able to hastily reinforce Myrne with a line of barbed wire (in light gray) east of the settlement, too, which, behind the Tonka river, further complicates Russian movement here.
Let's look at this breakthrough in more detail. In its western part, the Russians were only able to capture Perebudova, using the dense urban area as cover for their advancements, but are suffering losses in trying to move further west to Myrne because of Ukrainian drone operators tightly controlling the open area in between the 2 settlements.
As you can see from the photo below, the Ukrainians were able to hastily reinforce Myrne with a line of barbed wire (in light gray) east of the settlement, too, which, behind the Tonka river, further complicates Russian movement here.
4/🧵
Now, the focus is on the Russian spearhead in this area. After Zaporizhzhia fell, it was relatively easy for the Russians to capture Yalta, which fell just yesterday.
The main problem for the Ukrainians here is the nonexistent logistics: Ukrainian forces are stuck in a small bridgehead over the Vovcha and Mokri Yali rivers, and can only be supplied through 5 river crossings, which are very likely observed closely by Russian UAV crews. Other than that, supplies can only come in through drones and, well, boats.
Given the fact that no fortifications at all were built here after 2023 except some very small trench systems, once passed the Komar - Odradne - Bahatyr defensive line, where they hoped to hold for longer, this result was completely expected.
That is why, as we speak, the Ukrainians are leaving the pocket that formed in this bridgehead towards Zirka, where a last defense will be organized to delay the Russians as long as possible to organize the units at Tolstoy, and towards Myrne, which is already being actively stormed.
Now, the focus is on the Russian spearhead in this area. After Zaporizhzhia fell, it was relatively easy for the Russians to capture Yalta, which fell just yesterday.
The main problem for the Ukrainians here is the nonexistent logistics: Ukrainian forces are stuck in a small bridgehead over the Vovcha and Mokri Yali rivers, and can only be supplied through 5 river crossings, which are very likely observed closely by Russian UAV crews. Other than that, supplies can only come in through drones and, well, boats.
Given the fact that no fortifications at all were built here after 2023 except some very small trench systems, once passed the Komar - Odradne - Bahatyr defensive line, where they hoped to hold for longer, this result was completely expected.
That is why, as we speak, the Ukrainians are leaving the pocket that formed in this bridgehead towards Zirka, where a last defense will be organized to delay the Russians as long as possible to organize the units at Tolstoy, and towards Myrne, which is already being actively stormed.
5/🧵
Here is the topographic map for you to better understand.
It is clearly visible how, in the south at Shevchenko, the Russians are following the ridgeline, and at Horikhove too (top-right corner of the picture) they're trying to enter the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by attacking on the ridgeline.
The territory of this breakthrough, instead, is almost completely flat, as you can see, and is characterized by swampy and open areas, difficult to cross for both sides.
Here is the topographic map for you to better understand.
It is clearly visible how, in the south at Shevchenko, the Russians are following the ridgeline, and at Horikhove too (top-right corner of the picture) they're trying to enter the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by attacking on the ridgeline.
The territory of this breakthrough, instead, is almost completely flat, as you can see, and is characterized by swampy and open areas, difficult to cross for both sides.
6/🧵
That is why Ukraine decided to "ditch" this area in terms of fortification building, and fell back to a way more convenient line: the heights behind the Vovcha and Solona rivers.
In the center of the picture we can clearly see a big horizontal line of obstacles, composed by anti-tank ditches and barbed wire, south of Ivanivka and Novopavlivka.
This obstacle line sits in the lowlands, because the Ukrainians are hoping to stop the Russians getting on the dominant hill in the first place by combining the swampy area, the trenches on the hill and the strong obstacles built.
That is why Ukraine decided to "ditch" this area in terms of fortification building, and fell back to a way more convenient line: the heights behind the Vovcha and Solona rivers.
In the center of the picture we can clearly see a big horizontal line of obstacles, composed by anti-tank ditches and barbed wire, south of Ivanivka and Novopavlivka.
This obstacle line sits in the lowlands, because the Ukrainians are hoping to stop the Russians getting on the dominant hill in the first place by combining the swampy area, the trenches on the hill and the strong obstacles built.
7/🧵
Let's look at what this obstacle line looks like and try to understand its quality and readiness.
In the pictures below you can see examples of these obstacles (hard to geolocate, some could even be from this exact line here): the ideal, finished line is made up of the following parts, and is visible in picture #2 (south to north/Russia to Ukraine):
1. 1 row of barbed wire at man's height
2. Anti-tank ditch #1
3. Dragon's teeth with iron rods and barbed wire between the individual teeth (3 rows total), to further hinder vehicles and infantry.
4. Anti-tank ditch #2
5. Anti-tank ditch #3
6. Another row of barbed wire
In photo #3 you can see a zoomed-in view of the drawn obstacles.
Let's look at what this obstacle line looks like and try to understand its quality and readiness.
In the pictures below you can see examples of these obstacles (hard to geolocate, some could even be from this exact line here): the ideal, finished line is made up of the following parts, and is visible in picture #2 (south to north/Russia to Ukraine):
1. 1 row of barbed wire at man's height
2. Anti-tank ditch #1
3. Dragon's teeth with iron rods and barbed wire between the individual teeth (3 rows total), to further hinder vehicles and infantry.
4. Anti-tank ditch #2
5. Anti-tank ditch #3
6. Another row of barbed wire
In photo #3 you can see a zoomed-in view of the drawn obstacles.
8/🧵
So, how are the Ukrainians going to use this line to the maximum effectiveness?
First point. These small defensive positions/red dots that you saw on the photos were not built anymore with contact warfare in mind (shooting battles). Yes, firing positions are obviously present, but their main objective is to protect Ukrainian drone operators.
After a year of Ukrainian manpower issues, the Army has slowly switched to an Army of drones, instead of infantry. This has had its benefits, but also its downsides.
Now, we see that the Ukrainian command decided to embrace this transition that the Army made by itself to stay afloat by building these shelters for drone operators.
And remember that in this part of the front specifically, drones will be extremely effective, because it is characterized by open fields and swampy areas.
The first effects of these trenches on the hill will make themselves visible very soon, when the units in the close rear of the Ukrainians in this area will have organized itself in their positions and will start to pound the Russians crossing the steppe.
So, how are the Ukrainians going to use this line to the maximum effectiveness?
First point. These small defensive positions/red dots that you saw on the photos were not built anymore with contact warfare in mind (shooting battles). Yes, firing positions are obviously present, but their main objective is to protect Ukrainian drone operators.
After a year of Ukrainian manpower issues, the Army has slowly switched to an Army of drones, instead of infantry. This has had its benefits, but also its downsides.
Now, we see that the Ukrainian command decided to embrace this transition that the Army made by itself to stay afloat by building these shelters for drone operators.
And remember that in this part of the front specifically, drones will be extremely effective, because it is characterized by open fields and swampy areas.
The first effects of these trenches on the hill will make themselves visible very soon, when the units in the close rear of the Ukrainians in this area will have organized itself in their positions and will start to pound the Russians crossing the steppe.
9/🧵
Further about the "obstacle" strategy of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Its main focus is not to let Ukrainians with AKs shoot them, not to have them stuck in anti-tank ditches forever, and not to have them bleed out from the barbed wire. It is to give time to Ukrainian drone operators to fly with their drones and reach the Russians that will be delayed by these obstacles. Not stopped and not killed by them.
Further about the "obstacle" strategy of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Its main focus is not to let Ukrainians with AKs shoot them, not to have them stuck in anti-tank ditches forever, and not to have them bleed out from the barbed wire. It is to give time to Ukrainian drone operators to fly with their drones and reach the Russians that will be delayed by these obstacles. Not stopped and not killed by them.
10/🧵
As of currently, the weakest points of the Ukrainian defense in this region, in my opinion, is the Havrylivka - Pidhavrylivka section. Together with the Novopavlivka direction, I think it's also the most dangerous in case of a breakthrough for the Ukrainians.
Let's look at the Pidhavrylivka direction. The sector is sparsely defended, with little urban areas to cling on and little defenses built other than some outdated trenches and barbed wire lines. Unless the Ukrainians are planning to concentrate their infantry in the two forests west of Oleksandrohrad (Novopavlivskyy and Dibrivskyy reserves) that they made available because of the drone operators around, the Russians could actually use the forests to their advantage against exactly the Ukrainian drones to accumulate and advance, and simply go behind the uncompleted Ukrainian lines in the region.
After this, it will be very easy to go south, outflanking not one, but both Ukrainian Zaporizhzhia defensive lines, and west, trying to capture the important node of Velykomykhailivka.
Looking at the Novopavlivka direction instead. Here, if the Russians were to cross the Vovcha river from the south (which they already did), they could easily circumvent the Ukrainian Dnipropetrovsk border line, which is actually decently strong, and operationally encircle the Ukrainians between Horikhove and Oleksiivka.
Mind that this is not something that will happen immediately, nor in a month, but the threat is there, the Ukrainians can't afford to underestimate it, and the Russians don't have to be next to the Ukrainian defensive lines to make them stop being able to keep building safely.
As of currently, the weakest points of the Ukrainian defense in this region, in my opinion, is the Havrylivka - Pidhavrylivka section. Together with the Novopavlivka direction, I think it's also the most dangerous in case of a breakthrough for the Ukrainians.
Let's look at the Pidhavrylivka direction. The sector is sparsely defended, with little urban areas to cling on and little defenses built other than some outdated trenches and barbed wire lines. Unless the Ukrainians are planning to concentrate their infantry in the two forests west of Oleksandrohrad (Novopavlivskyy and Dibrivskyy reserves) that they made available because of the drone operators around, the Russians could actually use the forests to their advantage against exactly the Ukrainian drones to accumulate and advance, and simply go behind the uncompleted Ukrainian lines in the region.
After this, it will be very easy to go south, outflanking not one, but both Ukrainian Zaporizhzhia defensive lines, and west, trying to capture the important node of Velykomykhailivka.
Looking at the Novopavlivka direction instead. Here, if the Russians were to cross the Vovcha river from the south (which they already did), they could easily circumvent the Ukrainian Dnipropetrovsk border line, which is actually decently strong, and operationally encircle the Ukrainians between Horikhove and Oleksiivka.
Mind that this is not something that will happen immediately, nor in a month, but the threat is there, the Ukrainians can't afford to underestimate it, and the Russians don't have to be next to the Ukrainian defensive lines to make them stop being able to keep building safely.
11/🧵
Okay, let's sum everything up: what are the steps that the Ukrainians have to take now in my opinion?
1. About fortifications, temporarily divert resources from areas like Kramatorsk, Slovyansk, Izyum and Kharkiv to the Havrylivka sector to reinforce the weak link of the Ukrainian New Donbas line. Do it until it is possible and fruitful to do so.
Start the construction of the Pokrovske - Prosiana - Demuryne line, also using the conveniently facing railway to your advantage, to compensate for the weak Havrylivka sector. But mind that it is more fruitful to focus on reinforcing Havrylivka instead of starting a more serious line all the way at Pokrovske.
2. Watch closely how the defense organized in the Ivanivka area reacts to Russian assaults here. This area is going to be just like a testing ground for all of your new defensive system, so it is a good opportunity to identify weaknesses before it's too late and before other lines are also reached by Russian forces.
3. Do not cling to individual, useless positions. Remember to conserve strength to defend the actual defensive line that you built, otherwise you're going to hold more in front of it than behind it.
Okay, let's sum everything up: what are the steps that the Ukrainians have to take now in my opinion?
1. About fortifications, temporarily divert resources from areas like Kramatorsk, Slovyansk, Izyum and Kharkiv to the Havrylivka sector to reinforce the weak link of the Ukrainian New Donbas line. Do it until it is possible and fruitful to do so.
Start the construction of the Pokrovske - Prosiana - Demuryne line, also using the conveniently facing railway to your advantage, to compensate for the weak Havrylivka sector. But mind that it is more fruitful to focus on reinforcing Havrylivka instead of starting a more serious line all the way at Pokrovske.
2. Watch closely how the defense organized in the Ivanivka area reacts to Russian assaults here. This area is going to be just like a testing ground for all of your new defensive system, so it is a good opportunity to identify weaknesses before it's too late and before other lines are also reached by Russian forces.
3. Do not cling to individual, useless positions. Remember to conserve strength to defend the actual defensive line that you built, otherwise you're going to hold more in front of it than behind it.
12/🧵
Overrall, I assess the situation to NOT be critical, but in need of close control for any developments. There is no massive collapse, there is no giant Russian breakthrough.
I will continue to monitor Ukrainian fortification development in the areas I told about closely, and, obviously, the situation on the ground.
Very soon I'm going to update the online control map with the updated fortification layer, but mind that it might take a bit becasue of the sheer amount of data: we're talking of over 190,000 features.
If you're currently fighting in this or nearby directions, please message me privately or in Telegram at @Playfra, I'm extremely interested in knowing your point of view of the situation in your area.
Lastly, remember to join my Telegram channel: t.me/PlayfraOSINT
As always, thanks for your attention, and have a great rest of the day/night!
Overrall, I assess the situation to NOT be critical, but in need of close control for any developments. There is no massive collapse, there is no giant Russian breakthrough.
I will continue to monitor Ukrainian fortification development in the areas I told about closely, and, obviously, the situation on the ground.
Very soon I'm going to update the online control map with the updated fortification layer, but mind that it might take a bit becasue of the sheer amount of data: we're talking of over 190,000 features.
If you're currently fighting in this or nearby directions, please message me privately or in Telegram at @Playfra, I'm extremely interested in knowing your point of view of the situation in your area.
Lastly, remember to join my Telegram channel: t.me/PlayfraOSINT
As always, thanks for your attention, and have a great rest of the day/night!
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
