1/
Thread:
Author
David Kirichenko
@DVKirichenko
----
Russia Is Ready to Begin Its Summer Offensive
June 27, 2025
Russia’s summer offensive signals Putin’s determination to overwhelm Ukraine using mass drone warfare, motorcycle assaults, and Chinese tech support, while betting on scale, endurance, and Western hesitancy to act
nationalinterest.org/feature/russia…
Thread:
Author
David Kirichenko
@DVKirichenko
----
Russia Is Ready to Begin Its Summer Offensive
June 27, 2025
Russia’s summer offensive signals Putin’s determination to overwhelm Ukraine using mass drone warfare, motorcycle assaults, and Chinese tech support, while betting on scale, endurance, and Western hesitancy to act
nationalinterest.org/feature/russia…
2/
Vladimir Putin appears increasingly confident that Russia will ultimately prevail on the battlefield in Ukraine as Moscow wages a bloody summer offensive.
Just as Putin claimed in his 2021 essay
atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainea…
that Russians and Ukrainians are “one people” and that Ukraine’s sovereignty hinges on Moscow’s approval, he reiterated
meduza.io/en/news/2025/0…
in late June: “I’ve said it before, Russians and Ukrainians are one people. In this sense, all of Ukraine is ours. There’s an old rule that wherever a Russian soldier sets foot, that’s ours.”
Vladimir Putin appears increasingly confident that Russia will ultimately prevail on the battlefield in Ukraine as Moscow wages a bloody summer offensive.
Just as Putin claimed in his 2021 essay
atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainea…
that Russians and Ukrainians are “one people” and that Ukraine’s sovereignty hinges on Moscow’s approval, he reiterated
meduza.io/en/news/2025/0…
in late June: “I’ve said it before, Russians and Ukrainians are one people. In this sense, all of Ukraine is ours. There’s an old rule that wherever a Russian soldier sets foot, that’s ours.”
3/
Moskovsky Komsomolets noted that that phrase captured the essence of Putin’s “political faith and long-term strategy
Moskovsky Komsomolets noted that that phrase captured the essence of Putin’s “political faith and long-term strategy
https://x.com/BBCSteveR/status/1937058461126156507
4/
Putin’s and Trump’s Strained Relationship
US President Donald Trump has been repeatedly disregarded
bbc.com/news/live/c70w…
by the Kremlin, despite issuing vague ultimatums, often invoking his signature “two-week” timeline,
nytimes.com/2025/06/19/wor…
which has yielded no tangible results. This isn’t “peace through strength,” but rather “weakness through appeasement” that Trump has been demonstrating with Russia
Putin’s and Trump’s Strained Relationship
US President Donald Trump has been repeatedly disregarded
bbc.com/news/live/c70w…
by the Kremlin, despite issuing vague ultimatums, often invoking his signature “two-week” timeline,
nytimes.com/2025/06/19/wor…
which has yielded no tangible results. This isn’t “peace through strength,” but rather “weakness through appeasement” that Trump has been demonstrating with Russia
5/
The Trump administration has resorted to engaging
with the Lukashenko regime in Minsk, hoping to revive any momentum with peace talks.euromaidanpress.com/2025/06/24/us-…
The Trump administration has resorted to engaging
with the Lukashenko regime in Minsk, hoping to revive any momentum with peace talks.euromaidanpress.com/2025/06/24/us-…
6/
"To Trump’s credit, he finally got both sides to start talking to each other. But the Russians’ message in the meetings has been that they are intent on finishing this war and subjugating Ukraine. Vladimir Medinsky,
Putin’s aide leading the delegation, said, “We’re prepared to fight forever.wsj.com/world/russia/r…
"To Trump’s credit, he finally got both sides to start talking to each other. But the Russians’ message in the meetings has been that they are intent on finishing this war and subjugating Ukraine. Vladimir Medinsky,
Putin’s aide leading the delegation, said, “We’re prepared to fight forever.wsj.com/world/russia/r…
7/
However, #Moscow continues to distance itself from peace negotiations,
instead doubling down on its goal of fully subjugating Ukraine.nationalinterest.org/feature/be-war…
However, #Moscow continues to distance itself from peace negotiations,
instead doubling down on its goal of fully subjugating Ukraine.nationalinterest.org/feature/be-war…
8/
Russia has nearly 700,000
troops inside Ukraine to support Moscow’s battlefield aims.newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/zelenskyy…
Russia has nearly 700,000
troops inside Ukraine to support Moscow’s battlefield aims.newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/zelenskyy…
9/
Since January 2024, Russia has gained less than 1 percent of Ukrainian territory despite suffering record post-WWII losses
washingtonpost.com/opinions/inter…
Since January 2024, Russia has gained less than 1 percent of Ukrainian territory despite suffering record post-WWII losses
washingtonpost.com/opinions/inter…
10/
What Are Russia’s Summer Offensive Plans?
Russia has recently opened a new front in Sumy,
english.nv.ua/russian-war/ru…
likely tied to its rhetoric about establishing a buffer zone
kyivindependent.com/russians-compl…
following Ukraine’s surprise 2024 incursion into Kursk.
nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/ukra…
What Are Russia’s Summer Offensive Plans?
Russia has recently opened a new front in Sumy,
english.nv.ua/russian-war/ru…
likely tied to its rhetoric about establishing a buffer zone
kyivindependent.com/russians-compl…
following Ukraine’s surprise 2024 incursion into Kursk.
nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/ukra…
11/
The Institute for the Study of War noted
that the #Kremlin is also using the pretext of “buffer zones” to justify expanding Russia’s territorial ambitions in Ukraine
The Institute for the Study of War noted
that the #Kremlin is also using the pretext of “buffer zones” to justify expanding Russia’s territorial ambitions in Ukraine
https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1936198307057221876
12/
On the battlefield, the primary aim appears to be stretching Ukrainian forces thin across multiple fronts to increase pressure on Donetsk Oblast, which is Moscow’s primary objective. This is reflected by Russia’s decision to deploy its top drone units to the area
pravda.com.ua/articles/2025/…
On the battlefield, the primary aim appears to be stretching Ukrainian forces thin across multiple fronts to increase pressure on Donetsk Oblast, which is Moscow’s primary objective. This is reflected by Russia’s decision to deploy its top drone units to the area
pravda.com.ua/articles/2025/…
13/
Nonetheless, Ukraine has held steady and has been working to drive back the Russians from Sumy after Moscow suffered heavy losses.
--english.nv.ua/russian-war/ru…
Nonetheless, Ukraine has held steady and has been working to drive back the Russians from Sumy after Moscow suffered heavy losses.
--english.nv.ua/russian-war/ru…
15/
--
to be than being sent to the meatgrinder
to die by their commanders.theins.ru/en/politics/27…
--
to be than being sent to the meatgrinder
to die by their commanders.theins.ru/en/politics/27…
16/
--
Russian soldiers have been openly commenting
on
Ukrainian aviation, saying their pilots fly “like Jews in Iran,” are without fear, and are far more accurate than before
--
Russian soldiers have been openly commenting
on
Ukrainian aviation, saying their pilots fly “like Jews in Iran,” are without fear, and are far more accurate than before
https://x.com/cossackgundi/status/1936862379079565458
17/
Meanwhile, the Kremlin has watched
its key ally, Iran, face relentless humiliation, doing nothing to defend it.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/06/2…
Meanwhile, the Kremlin has watched
its key ally, Iran, face relentless humiliation, doing nothing to defend it.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/06/2…
18/
Instead, Moscow
has pointed to the fine print of previous agreements to avoid stepping in and to prevent
--bbc.com/news/articles/…
Instead, Moscow
has pointed to the fine print of previous agreements to avoid stepping in and to prevent
--bbc.com/news/articles/…
19/
--
“inflated expectations” of Russian support.
--
“inflated expectations” of Russian support.
https://x.com/BBCSteveR/status/1936767383596610024
20/
Still, Russia stands to benefit from the surge in oil prices triggered by market turmoil after Israel launched its bombing campaign
businessinsider.com/oil-prices-isr…
Still, Russia stands to benefit from the surge in oil prices triggered by market turmoil after Israel launched its bombing campaign
businessinsider.com/oil-prices-isr…
21/a
Throughout 2025, Ukraine worked on strengthening its expanding drone wall
nationalinterest.org/feature/ukrain…
Throughout 2025, Ukraine worked on strengthening its expanding drone wall
nationalinterest.org/feature/ukrain…
21/c
Good mining,
digging new trenches not in open fields,
Good mining,
digging new trenches not in open fields,
https://x.com/albafella1/status/1937006831420715103
21/e
This drone wall should continue to evolve into a technological shield
to increase the rate of Russian losses and drive down Ukrainian losses
This drone wall should continue to evolve into a technological shield
to increase the rate of Russian losses and drive down Ukrainian losses
https://x.com/grandparoy2/status/1935307205286445330?s=46
22/a
As a result, the Russians have evolved their tactics and how they attempt to probe Ukrainian lines. In Mad Max fashion, Russia’s primary vehicle of choice has become the motorcycle,
or the 21st-century Dragoon.
As a result, the Russians have evolved their tactics and how they attempt to probe Ukrainian lines. In Mad Max fashion, Russia’s primary vehicle of choice has become the motorcycle,
or the 21st-century Dragoon.
https://x.com/GrandpaRoy2/status/1936397489914929466
22/b
A Russian soldier must drive as fast as possible with no mistakes to avoid getting hit by a drone. Most motorcycles used are Chinese-made,
such as the Sharmax Sport 280, and are sourced through state procurement, volunteer networks, and personal purchases.
A Russian soldier must drive as fast as possible with no mistakes to avoid getting hit by a drone. Most motorcycles used are Chinese-made,
such as the Sharmax Sport 280, and are sourced through state procurement, volunteer networks, and personal purchases.
https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1937204438919446627
23/
This tactic is costly but calculated. Oleksandr Solonko, a Ukrainian soldier and communications specialist, observed
x.com/solonko1648/st…
that even if just one in five motorcycle assaults succeeds, the enemy is willing to expend all that human life to sustain its offensives.
“These motor-assault units move fast. Our drone operators and artillery have less time to react,” wrote Solonko
This tactic is costly but calculated. Oleksandr Solonko, a Ukrainian soldier and communications specialist, observed
x.com/solonko1648/st…
that even if just one in five motorcycle assaults succeeds, the enemy is willing to expend all that human life to sustain its offensives.
“These motor-assault units move fast. Our drone operators and artillery have less time to react,” wrote Solonko
24/a
What Are Russia’s Recent Successes in the War?
However, Kyiv has recently made critical mistakes that make its drone wall vulnerable. In Russia’s latest offensive near Sumy, Ukraine failed to establish proper fortifications,
censor.net/en/news/355848…
a recurring issue throughout the war. Without adequate defenses and mining, Russian forces can advance more quickly, which makes it harder for Ukrainian defenders.
What Are Russia’s Recent Successes in the War?
However, Kyiv has recently made critical mistakes that make its drone wall vulnerable. In Russia’s latest offensive near Sumy, Ukraine failed to establish proper fortifications,
censor.net/en/news/355848…
a recurring issue throughout the war. Without adequate defenses and mining, Russian forces can advance more quickly, which makes it harder for Ukrainian defenders.
24/b
Russian KAB-guided bombs continue to strike Ukrainian positions at the same rate as they did a year ago
Russian KAB-guided bombs continue to strike Ukrainian positions at the same rate as they did a year ago
https://x.com/M0nstas/status/1937179777984528497
25/a
Russia claims
that 65 percent of Ukrainian losses occur during troop rotations or resupply, and 35% on the front line.
Russia claims
that 65 percent of Ukrainian losses occur during troop rotations or resupply, and 35% on the front line.
https://x.com/GrandpaRoy2/status/1936841206660465072
25/b
Fiber-optic
nationalinterest.org/feature/russia…
first-person view (FPV) drones
cepa.org/article/a-new-…
make any surface movement within 20km of the front extremely dangerous.
Fiber-optic
nationalinterest.org/feature/russia…
first-person view (FPV) drones
cepa.org/article/a-new-…
make any surface movement within 20km of the front extremely dangerous.
25/c
However, Oleksandr Syrskyi, Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief, highlighted
that Russia is ahead in the fiber-optic drone race “in terms of both quantity and range of application.”pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/…
However, Oleksandr Syrskyi, Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief, highlighted
that Russia is ahead in the fiber-optic drone race “in terms of both quantity and range of application.”pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/…
26/a
The Russians are betting on scale,
believing that sheer mass and the full mobilization of state resources will ultimately secure victory.global.espreso.tv/russia-ukraine…
The Russians are betting on scale,
believing that sheer mass and the full mobilization of state resources will ultimately secure victory.global.espreso.tv/russia-ukraine…
26/c
Russia’s technological advancement, with its partnership with Iran
enabling the domestic production of Iranian-designed Shahed drones.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/05/…
Russia’s technological advancement, with its partnership with Iran
enabling the domestic production of Iranian-designed Shahed drones.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/05/…
26/d
Chinese companies and the supplies
they provide are key reasons Russia can sustain its warscmp.com/news/china/mil…
Chinese companies and the supplies
they provide are key reasons Russia can sustain its warscmp.com/news/china/mil…
27
Russia’s Kalashnikov has also partnered with Ushkuynik, a volunteer-run tech accelerator that developed the country’s first fiber-optic drone, to produce drones jointly.
x.com/sambendett/sta…
- The deal reflects a broader shift in Russia’s defense industry toward integrating fast-moving, frontline-tested innovations from startups into mass production, as Moscow pushes for quicker development-to-deployment cycles.
In essence, Russia is learning important lessons from the war
Russia’s Kalashnikov has also partnered with Ushkuynik, a volunteer-run tech accelerator that developed the country’s first fiber-optic drone, to produce drones jointly.
x.com/sambendett/sta…
- The deal reflects a broader shift in Russia’s defense industry toward integrating fast-moving, frontline-tested innovations from startups into mass production, as Moscow pushes for quicker development-to-deployment cycles.
In essence, Russia is learning important lessons from the war
28/
“While Russia benefits from its ongoing relationship with Iran and China, Ukraine has also demonstrated that it can use its domestic and allied tech to press the Russians in return,” said Samuel Bendett,
an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Securityx.com/sambendett
“While Russia benefits from its ongoing relationship with Iran and China, Ukraine has also demonstrated that it can use its domestic and allied tech to press the Russians in return,” said Samuel Bendett,
an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Securityx.com/sambendett
29/
Moscow’s war effort leans heavily on its partnership with China, which supplies about 80 percent of the world’s fiber-optic components.
“Russia isn’t technically ahead; both sides are ordering the same parts from the same Chinese suppliers,” said Heiner Philipp, an engineer with Technology United for Ukraine.
technologyforukraine.com
Moscow’s war effort leans heavily on its partnership with China, which supplies about 80 percent of the world’s fiber-optic components.
“Russia isn’t technically ahead; both sides are ordering the same parts from the same Chinese suppliers,” said Heiner Philipp, an engineer with Technology United for Ukraine.
technologyforukraine.com
30/
These drones were a key factor in Russia’s success in Kursk. The same strategy is being employed across the front in Ukraine: launch quick assaults using motorcycles, pressure
Ukrainian flanks, attempt to encircle defenders, and use fiber-optic drones to target incoming Ukrainian logistics and vehicles.
These drones were a key factor in Russia’s success in Kursk. The same strategy is being employed across the front in Ukraine: launch quick assaults using motorcycles, pressure
Ukrainian flanks, attempt to encircle defenders, and use fiber-optic drones to target incoming Ukrainian logistics and vehicles.
https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1937204412218507529
31/a
Entire forest lines are now covered in fiber-optic wires.
Entire forest lines are now covered in fiber-optic wires.
https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1937569506492043272
31/b
Now, even drones have become effective
“anti-sniper” tools, targeting individuals with high-value equipment like snipers and ATGM operators
Now, even drones have become effective
“anti-sniper” tools, targeting individuals with high-value equipment like snipers and ATGM operators
https://x.com/GrandpaRoy2/status/1937463539452502093
32/
As a result of these drone attacks, Ukraine faces
?
an acute shortage of trucks, pickups, and armored transport, which are increasingly destroyed by drones.
Volunteer groups and charities have stepped in to supply thousands of vehicles, but demand far outpaces supplynewsletter.counteroffensive.pro/p/the-unsexy-t…
As a result of these drone attacks, Ukraine faces
?
an acute shortage of trucks, pickups, and armored transport, which are increasingly destroyed by drones.
Volunteer groups and charities have stepped in to supply thousands of vehicles, but demand far outpaces supplynewsletter.counteroffensive.pro/p/the-unsexy-t…
33/
The most practical solution has become to focus efforts on eliminating Russian drone pilots.
Disrupting drone operations weakens Russian assaults and interferes with enemy command and control
The most practical solution has become to focus efforts on eliminating Russian drone pilots.
Disrupting drone operations weakens Russian assaults and interferes with enemy command and control
https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1933796141352780041
34/a
Ukraine’s new Commander of the Unmanned Systems Forces, “Madyar,” prioritizes targeting
these operators, awarding 25 points for a kill, more than for tanks or regular soldiers.
Ukraine’s new Commander of the Unmanned Systems Forces, “Madyar,” prioritizes targeting
these operators, awarding 25 points for a kill, more than for tanks or regular soldiers.
https://x.com/GrandpaRoy2/status/1936044736768598373
34/b
Units can trade verified kills for drones and equipment through an online marketplace.
politico.eu/article/ukrain…
Units can trade verified kills for drones and equipment through an online marketplace.
politico.eu/article/ukrain…
34/c
Russian sources confirmed
that under the revised points system, attacks on drone crews, especially fiber-optic FPV operators, have intensified.
Russian sources confirmed
that under the revised points system, attacks on drone crews, especially fiber-optic FPV operators, have intensified.
https://x.com/GrandpaRoy2/status/1936854046242971938
34/d
Pilots are being urged to deploy
decoy antennas on the front.
Pilots are being urged to deploy
decoy antennas on the front.
https://x.com/GrandpaRoy2/status/1937504572999708805
35/
China and North Korea Assist Russia’s War in Ukraine:
China is deepening military cooperation with Russia despite claiming neutrality and supporting peace talks.
Ukrainian intelligence reports
kyivpost.com/post/55085
that Moscow will host around 600 Chinese military personnel in 2025 to train at Russian bases, learning from Russia’s battlefield experience and focusing on countering Western weaponry. Reuters
reuters.com/world/chinese-…
also previously reported that Chinese military officers have been in Russia, learning from the war in Ukraine.
China and North Korea Assist Russia’s War in Ukraine:
China is deepening military cooperation with Russia despite claiming neutrality and supporting peace talks.
Ukrainian intelligence reports
kyivpost.com/post/55085
that Moscow will host around 600 Chinese military personnel in 2025 to train at Russian bases, learning from Russia’s battlefield experience and focusing on countering Western weaponry. Reuters
reuters.com/world/chinese-…
also previously reported that Chinese military officers have been in Russia, learning from the war in Ukraine.
36/
The Kremlin is now also bringing in 25,000 North Korean
militarywatchmagazine.com/article/25000-…
industrial workers to staff drone production lines in Tatarstan, in addition to the thousands of troops
nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/nort…
that have been fighting in Kursk.
The Kremlin is now also bringing in 25,000 North Korean
militarywatchmagazine.com/article/25000-…
industrial workers to staff drone production lines in Tatarstan, in addition to the thousands of troops
nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/nort…
that have been fighting in Kursk.
37/a
Mick Ryan, a retired Australian Army Major-General, noted,
“The Russians have a significant advantage over Ukraine in their ability to recruit soldiers, generate forces, and replace their casualties.”substack.com/home/post/p-16…
Mick Ryan, a retired Australian Army Major-General, noted,
“The Russians have a significant advantage over Ukraine in their ability to recruit soldiers, generate forces, and replace their casualties.”substack.com/home/post/p-16…
38/a
But not all is going well for Russian forces,
which increasingly rely on recruits driven by the promise of cash bonuses, if they survive.
But not all is going well for Russian forces,
which increasingly rely on recruits driven by the promise of cash bonuses, if they survive.
https://x.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1932778805887639809
28/b
In one gruesome example, leaked audio
from Ukraine’s military intelligence alleges that a Russian soldier killed and ate his comradekyivindependent.com/leaked-audio-s…
In one gruesome example, leaked audio
from Ukraine’s military intelligence alleges that a Russian soldier killed and ate his comradekyivindependent.com/leaked-audio-s…
39/
As long as the West assumes Russia is merely seeking land under the guise of exaggerated security concerns, it will fail to grasp the deeper threat.
Moscow is prepared to fight to restore its imperial past, dragging the world backward. In a recent broadcast, one Russian military official openly discussed
x.com/NatalkaKyiv/st…
plans to attack NATO over alleged discrimination against Russian-speakers in the Baltic and to capture Kharkiv by 2030
As long as the West assumes Russia is merely seeking land under the guise of exaggerated security concerns, it will fail to grasp the deeper threat.
Moscow is prepared to fight to restore its imperial past, dragging the world backward. In a recent broadcast, one Russian military official openly discussed
x.com/NatalkaKyiv/st…
plans to attack NATO over alleged discrimination against Russian-speakers in the Baltic and to capture Kharkiv by 2030
40/
But Russia can’t fight on forever, and the cracks are growing. The country’s economy minister recently admitted
ft.com/content/f991d3…
that Russia is on the brink of recession, as surging war spending collides with inflation, labor shortages, and tight monetary policy.
If Trump were to apply real economic pressure, he might break Moscow’s resolve and bring it to the negotiating table. Until then, Russia believes it holds the upper hand and will continue preparing to challenge Europe in a future war.
With little to offer its people for the future, the Kremlin instead sells a vision of returning to the supposed glory days of the Russian Empire
But Russia can’t fight on forever, and the cracks are growing. The country’s economy minister recently admitted
ft.com/content/f991d3…
that Russia is on the brink of recession, as surging war spending collides with inflation, labor shortages, and tight monetary policy.
If Trump were to apply real economic pressure, he might break Moscow’s resolve and bring it to the negotiating table. Until then, Russia believes it holds the upper hand and will continue preparing to challenge Europe in a future war.
With little to offer its people for the future, the Kremlin instead sells a vision of returning to the supposed glory days of the Russian Empire
41/41
About the Author: David Kirichenko
David Kirichenko is a freelance journalist and an Associate Research Fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, a London-based think tank.
kyivindependent.com/author/david-k…
His research focuses on autonomous systems, cyber warfare, irregular warfare, and military strategy. His analyses have been widely published in outlets such as the Atlantic Council, the Center for European Policy Analysis, the Irregular Warfare Center, Military Review, and The Hill, as well as in peer-reviewed journals.
Thread by:
@Anno1540
About the Author: David Kirichenko
David Kirichenko is a freelance journalist and an Associate Research Fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, a London-based think tank.
kyivindependent.com/author/david-k…
His research focuses on autonomous systems, cyber warfare, irregular warfare, and military strategy. His analyses have been widely published in outlets such as the Atlantic Council, the Center for European Policy Analysis, the Irregular Warfare Center, Military Review, and The Hill, as well as in peer-reviewed journals.
Thread by:
@Anno1540
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
