1/ Thread:
Author
David Kirichenko
@DVKirichenko
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Russia Is Ready to Begin Its Summer Offensive
June 27, 2025
Russia’s summer offensive signals Putin’s determination to overwhelm Ukraine using mass drone warfare, motorcycle assaults, and Chinese tech support, while betting on scale, endurance, and Western hesitancy to act
2/ Vladimir Putin appears increasingly confident that Russia will ultimately prevail on the battlefield in Ukraine as Moscow wages a bloody summer offensive.
Just as Putin claimed in his 2021 essay atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainea…
that Russians and Ukrainians are “one people” and that Ukraine’s sovereignty hinges on Moscow’s approval, he reiterated meduza.io/en/news/2025/0…
in late June: “I’ve said it before, Russians and Ukrainians are one people. In this sense, all of Ukraine is ours. There’s an old rule that wherever a Russian soldier sets foot, that’s ours.”
3/ Moskovsky Komsomolets noted that that phrase captured the essence of Putin’s “political faith and long-term strategy
4/ Putin’s and Trump’s Strained Relationship
US President Donald Trump has been repeatedly disregarded bbc.com/news/live/c70w…
by the Kremlin, despite issuing vague ultimatums, often invoking his signature “two-week” timeline, nytimes.com/2025/06/19/wor…
which has yielded no tangible results. This isn’t “peace through strength,” but rather “weakness through appeasement” that Trump has been demonstrating with Russia
5/ The Trump administration has resorted to engaging
6/ "To Trump’s credit, he finally got both sides to start talking to each other. But the Russians’ message in the meetings has been that they are intent on finishing this war and subjugating Ukraine. Vladimir Medinsky,
Putin’s aide leading the delegation, said, “We’re prepared to fight forever.wsj.com/world/russia/r…
7/ However, #Moscow continues to distance itself from peace negotiations,
9/ Since January 2024, Russia has gained less than 1 percent of Ukrainian territory despite suffering record post-WWII losses washingtonpost.com/opinions/inter…
12/ On the battlefield, the primary aim appears to be stretching Ukrainian forces thin across multiple fronts to increase pressure on Donetsk Oblast, which is Moscow’s primary objective. This is reflected by Russia’s decision to deploy its top drone units to the area pravda.com.ua/articles/2025/…
13/ Nonetheless, Ukraine has held steady and has been working to drive back the Russians from Sumy after Moscow suffered heavy losses.
16/ --
Russian soldiers have been openly commenting
on
Ukrainian aviation, saying their pilots fly “like Jews in Iran,” are without fear, and are far more accurate than before
20/ Still, Russia stands to benefit from the surge in oil prices triggered by market turmoil after Israel launched its bombing campaign businessinsider.com/oil-prices-isr…
22/a
As a result, the Russians have evolved their tactics and how they attempt to probe Ukrainian lines. In Mad Max fashion, Russia’s primary vehicle of choice has become the motorcycle,
23/ This tactic is costly but calculated. Oleksandr Solonko, a Ukrainian soldier and communications specialist, observed x.com/solonko1648/st…
that even if just one in five motorcycle assaults succeeds, the enemy is willing to expend all that human life to sustain its offensives.
“These motor-assault units move fast. Our drone operators and artillery have less time to react,” wrote Solonko
24/a
What Are Russia’s Recent Successes in the War?
However, Kyiv has recently made critical mistakes that make its drone wall vulnerable. In Russia’s latest offensive near Sumy, Ukraine failed to establish proper fortifications, censor.net/en/news/355848…
a recurring issue throughout the war. Without adequate defenses and mining, Russian forces can advance more quickly, which makes it harder for Ukrainian defenders.
24/b
Russian KAB-guided bombs continue to strike Ukrainian positions at the same rate as they did a year ago
On a makeshift patio right next to the harbor basin in Visby ( Sweden town at the island Gotland ), Vladyslav and Malik are sitting.
Neither I nor anyone else in Almedalen ( an speachplace during this week ) can possibly fully understand the extent of what they have been through and been subjected to. After an hour of conversation, I ask them if I can try to recount what they have told me and they answer in the affirmative.
- That is why we have come here, to let the outside world know what we have been through, they both say.
What they have come to Almedalen to tell about is their time as Ukrainian prisoners of war in Russia. For two and two and a half years respectively, they were forced to endure what had made every circle in Dante's hell seem like a holiday trip. Malik begins.
2/ - We were woken up at 6am every morning. The day started with us being beaten all over our bodies with sticks, then we were forced back into the cell. Eight to ten people in each cell, monitored by a camera.
From six in the morning we were then forced to stand in individual positions completely still until ten in the evening.
No one was allowed to move,
no one was allowed to talk,
no one was allowed to do anything.
If a single person moved, fell or somehow fell out of the frame, the door was opened and everyone in the cell was taken out to be subjected to collective punishment.
We were given electric shocks and beaten all over our bodies.
- When I ask how it is even physically possible to stand upright in exactly the same position day in and day out for all waking hours of the day, Malik replies;
- When you have experienced first being soaked and then attacked with an electric rod that is plugged into a wall socket, you will stand up until it is the last thing you do. Some died, some lost their composure.
Those who went crazy, as Malik puts it, disappeared. He continues;
- Russia will never send them back, they never want to show what happened to these people.
For two and a half years, this was every day of Malik's life.
3/ - They told us that Ukraine was gone, that the country had fallen and that we would never be allowed back.
New prisoners of war were carefully placed in other places so as not to be able to provide updates on developments on the ground in Ukraine.
But one day, a recently captured Ukrainian soldier was accidentally placed in their cell, who could tell us how things really were. Free Ukraine still existed to a very large extent and Russia had been pushed back at the beginning of the war.
It gave them the strength to continue to endure, concludes Malik.
Vladyslav was placed in another prison and in another hell. Here, the prisoners were given penal servitude, but almost nothing to eat.
- We ate mice that we could find and catch, we ate soap, we ate everything we could get our hands on.
I ask if they didn't get any food.
- Yes, sometimes, but in small rations and food that was prepared in a way that was intended to make it almost inedible. We were given bread that was mixed with soil.
They beat us daily, they sent their guard dogs after us, who bit us. Sometimes they forced us into a small drying cabinet.
5 people at a time were packed tightly into a drying cabinet, then they closed the door and turned up the heat until we almost lost consciousness.
It went on like this, day after day, Vladyslav says.
2/ Despite suffering over 1 million casualties, pounding Ukrainian cities nightly with missiles and drones, and committing countless war crimes, one startling fact about Russia's full-scale invasion remains — Moscow has yet to officially declare war on Ukraine
In February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin described what he believed was going to be a swift victory and the capture of Kyiv within days as a "special military operation." bbc.com/news/technolog…
3/ Nearly three-and-a-half years later, the Kremlin is stuck with the term, caught in a quandary of its own making — waging by what any measure is a war, while being unable to call it one for fear of a domestic backlash
"Putin has protected himself in this war by separating the direct effects of the war from the majority of the Russian population."
A formal declaration of war would have far-reaching implications for the country's industry and economy, as well as allowing the Kremlin to launch a full mobilization.
But partial mobilization announced in September 2022 led to the only widespread dw.com/en/russia-pani…
protests against the war inside Russia, making clear to Putin that announcing anything more would cause him serious political problems.
1/ Putin's 700,000-strong army in Ukraine: is the enemy exhausting Ukrainians or is it exhausting itself? Interview with Simoroz
Currently, there is almost 700,000 Russian occupation army on the territory of Ukraine , reported the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrsky. @CinC_AFU .
Even considering that these forces are stretched along 1,200 kilometers of the front line, this is really a lot. But the fact is that their number is regular.
The enemy realized that he was suffering colossal losses in Ukraine, and simply began to replenish his army taking into account this fact. The huge human and financial resources of the occupying country allow this to be done
2/ To achieve success on the battlefield, the enemy is using tactics from the Second World War, which consist of flank attacks and the creation of cauldrons.
This is precisely why the difficult situation has developed in the Toretsk area.
The Ukrainian Defense Forces need to review tactics, attract additional human resources, and ensure effective lines of defense so as not to lose settlements and roads of strategic importance.
In a situation where the enemy has clearly relied on increasing drone attacks on the capital, Ukraine needs to urgently respond to current threats
This opinion was expressed in an exclusive interview with OBOZ.UA by war veteran, public activist, and lawyer Oleg Simoroz . facebook.com/oleh.symoroz/?…
3/ – The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Oleksandr Syrsky, obozrevatel.com/ukr/person/ale…. @CinC_AFU
reported that the number of the Russian occupation army, which is currently on the territory of Ukraine, is almost 700 thousand. At the same time, the total length of the front line is also very large – about 1,200 kilometers. In your opinion, is such a large number of enemy troops really a big problem for us?
has already deployed 695,000 troops to the territory of Ukraine. Currently, the likely goal of the occupiers for the summer of 2025 is considered to be the entry of the occupiers to the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk regionsobozrevatel.com/ukr/topic/pote…
3/ This was announced by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Oleksandr Syrsky, at a meeting with journalists. He also said that one of the main goals of the enemy is to create a "buffer zone" in the territory of Kharkiv and Sumy regions
1/ The Avengers just got real: weekend engineers made Russia’s war tech obsolete — now the Pentagon
By:.@DVKirichenko
While Ukraine’s allies debated aid, 150 weekend engineers launched the rapid-response pipeline smoking NATO deadlines — delivering tech that crashes Russia’s multi-billion weapons within weeks. euromaidanpress.com/2025/06/18/the…
2/ The fiber-optic drones that laugh at Russian jammers. The $10,000 radars that beat $10-million systems. The netgun quadcopters snatching enemy eyes from the sky. None came from NATO labs — they came from basements, battlefields, and backchannel Zoom calls.
While Ukraine’s allies debated aid packages and tiptoed around “escalation,” a global league of engineers, tinkerers, and combat-tested coders — calling themselves Defense Tech for Ukraine (DTU) — has built a rapid-response tech pipeline their own governments can only dream of defensetechforukraine.org
3/ Putin bet everything on a slow grind to wear Ukraine down. Instead, every second now fuels his worst nightmare: a grassroots tech incubator taking on his billion-dollar systems with garage-built solutions. While global defense giants waste years in development hell, these 150 dev.ua/news/amerykans…
volunteers deliver life-saving solutions in weeks — and shift the balance where it matters most: Ukraine’s front line
1/ Putin will lose if Iran is defeated: Trump can no longer help "friend Vladimir." Interview with Feigin
The conflict between Israel and Iran has three consequences for the regime in Russia at once - one positive and two negative. The positive for the Kremlin is that it has the opportunity to take advantage of the distraction from the war in Ukraine. The aggressor is trying to act "in the moment".
The bad news for the Kremlin dictator is that the administration of US President Donald Trump has put the dialogue with Moscow on hold. The third consequence of the war in the Middle East for Putin is that he is catastrophically losing geopolitical influence. This opinion was expressed by Russian human rights activist Mark Feigin in an exclusive interview
"The conflict between Israel and Iran has three consequences for the regime in Russia at once – one positive and two negative".
The positive for the Kremlin is that it has been able to take advantage of the distraction from the war in Ukraine. The aggressor is trying to act "in the moment". This is precisely what has led to Russia's massive missile and drone attacks on Ukraine , which have become more frequent. obozrevatel.com/ukr/topic/ross…
2/ The bad news for the Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin is that the administration of US President Donald Trump has put the dialogue with Moscow on hold. After all, it is not yet clear who the Kremlin will actually support and how the situation will develop further. Trump himself has found himself under pressure from his own party members and can no longer freely help "friend Vladimir". The third consequence of the war in the Middle East for Putin is that he is catastrophically losing geopolitical influence. If Iran loses, then Putin will lose too
This opinion was expressed by Russian human rights activist Mark Feigin in an exclusive interview youtube.com/channel/UCQVtD…
3/ ( Russian Warrant Issued For Self-Exiled Ex-Lawyer Who Defended Noted Activists
Mark Zakharovich Feygin is a Russian human rights activist and former lawyer who represented Pussy Riot, Nadiya Savchenko and Leonid Razvozzhayev in Russian ...)
– In your opinion, what game is Putin playing against the backdrop of the Iran-Israel conflict? How do you view the fact that the US has canceled consultations with the Russian Federation?
– There are several directions there. As for Ukraine directly, as we see, they are intensifying the strikes, they want to gain an advantage – operational and tactical – at the moment. While everyone is distracted by this conflict, they are trying to solve the problem by intensifying the strikes on Ukraine. This is an obvious consequence.
As for relations with the US, they really took a break because it is not clear where the situation will go. For example, Washington will begin to strengthen bilateral relations, and Moscow will take and support Tehran. No one knows what will happen. Maybe North Korea will give them weapons. Anything can happen. So the US decided to wait and see. After all, it is completely out of the question for Trump to end up as an ally of Moscow and Tehran. Improving relations with Russia against what background? For what? Why?