A new thread with some brief, top level thoughts on the missile statistics. I think people are misreading a couple of the statistics. We are still not that far out from the end of the war, so treat everything I saw as having imaginary error bars of about 10%.
I've seen multiple statements about number of Iranian missiles launched. Some say 500, some say 550, some say 591, some say 631. That's a big delta, probably produced by counting uncertainties.
The some Israeli media says 36 missiles impacted populated areas. There are other impacts at military sites but very few of them did any damage. Impacts on taxiways, things of that nature. Effectively open fields.
The total number of impacts somewhere near something military, industrial, or in populated areas is around 50. This would match what I'm seeing in video and in satellite imagery and has been reported by the IDF. They say over 50 "impact sites" in Israel.
What happened to the other 500 missiles that Iran fired? Most of them likely failed on route. Recall that US and Israeli sources said that around HALF of the missiles fired as part of True Promise 1 and 2 failed on route.
The rest - about 250 to 300 missiles - were intercepted. Israeli air defense has a claimed success rate of about 80-90%, which is born out here. About 50 impacts or so.
Despite some ridiculous claims, Israel is not hiding 250 impacts on things that matter. This would be impossible to remain unnoticed - Israel is a very small country - and not evidenced by satellite imagery.
Basically all the military impacts are effectively misses. The impacts at civilian sites are also largely misses. The Glilot salvo did not seem to hit the intended target for example.
If we are imagining that all impacts of such nature are "successes," then Iranian missiles have about a 9% success rate against Israeli defenses. If we imagine that any success against a populated target is a success, then the figure drops to about 6%.
If we are imagining that damage to a specific military target is the success case, that number drops to about 1%.
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