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Critical Threats

Jun 28 • 5 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X

NEW | US and Israeli airstrikes on the Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center (ENTC) between June 12 and 24 reportedly destroyed components of Iran’s nuclear program that would be necessary for weaponization. The strikes destroyed the Uranium Metal Conversion Plant at the ENTC, which Iran could have used to transform uranium gas into dense metal in a process called metallization. This process is one of the last steps required to form the explosive core of an atomic bomb.

Iran may have begun repair operations at the Natanz Enrichment Complex. Commercially available satellite imagery captured on June 27 shows that Iran has filled in a crater that was formed by US GBU-57 bunker-buster bombs. The imagery shows what appears to be two tents and a truck present at the impact site.

Israeli strikes targeted senior Iranian military and security officials across multiple branches, likely in an effort to degrade Iran’s command and control structure. Iranian media confirmed on June 28 that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) killed 56 Artesh members, including at least three Artesh generals and 16 conscript soldiers. Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)-affiliated media reported on June 28 that Israeli strikes killed Law Enforcement Command (LEC) Intelligence Organization Deputy Director Brigadier General Mehdi Nemati. Nemati reportedly fought alongside former IRGC Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani in Iraq and Syria for several years.

Iranian Supreme Leader Adviser Ali Shamkhani called on regime officials to resolve “disputes” with the Iranian population through “mutual understanding” in an interview on June 28. Shamkhani claimed that nuclear negotiations with the United States are a “deceptive plan” that seeks to “provoke unrest” and “prepare the atmosphere inside Iran” for protests. Shamkhani’s statements come as the Iranian regime has taken steps to securitize the country since the Iran-Israel ceasefire went into effect on June 24.

Read more from CTP and @TheStudyofWar at criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-…

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Jun 28

US and Israeli airstrikes severely set back Iran’s enrichment capabilities, but Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile poses a long-term threat if Iran chooses to rebuild its nuclear program.

The degradation of Iran’s uranium enrichment capabilities will temporarily prevent Iran from enriching to 90 percent weapons-grade uranium, though it could do so if it can install surviving centrifuges at a new facility or retains surviving centrifuges at another facility.

It is unclear if Iran retains the know-how or facilities needed to build a weapon after Israel’s decapitation campaign targeting nuclear scientists and the US-Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities.

A top Israeli official said Israel is preparing to resume operations against Iran if necessary. Israel seeks to retain its air superiority over Iranian airspace, prevent reconstruction of Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs, and inhibit Iranian support to members of the Axis of Resistance.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi threatened to conduct retaliatory attacks against a potential Israeli strike.

The Iranian regime continues to take counterintelligence steps that likely reflect the regime’s paranoia about Israeli infiltration.

First Deputy of the Iranian Judiciary Hamzeh Khalili stated on June 27 that the judiciary will pursue Israeli “spies” and called on Iranians to inform the authorities of any dangerous or suspicious activities.

Read 4 tweets

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Jun 24

NEW | Malian junta leader Assimi Goïta met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on June 23.

The visit comes amid a spiraling security situation in Mali and across the Sahel that undermines Russia's credibility as an effective partner.🧵

Goïta and Putin signed an agreement on civil nuclear energy cooperation and agreed to increase trade.

The two countries are already close security partners. Thousands of Russian soldiers are in Mali supporting the junta against Salafi-jihadi & separatist rebels. 2/7

The security partnership has largely been a failure, however.

Al Qaeda and IS affiliates in the Sahel have grown stronger since Mali and its Burkinabe and Nigerien neighbors chose Russia as their primary security partner. 3/7

Read 7 tweets

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Jun 23

The Kremlin continues to only diplomatically support Iran, showcasing the limitations in the Russian-Iranian strategic relationship.

ISW continues to assess that Russia is constrained in its ability to provide direct support to Iran due to its war in Ukraine and has likely resigned itself to providing diplomatic overtures for the time being.

Russian officials are attempting to influence conversations about increasing NATO defense spending by misrepresenting Russia's ongoing efforts to restructure and expand Russia's military capabilities as a defensive reaction to NATO.

Putin also acknowledged his ongoing efforts to empower Russia's internal security services in order to safeguard regime stability and internal security.

Read 5 tweets

Critical Threats

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Jun 23

NEW | Foreign companies in the Sahel are under growing pressure from both JNIM & the Sahelian juntas.

JNIM has launched an attack campaign against foreign worksites, while the juntas have continued trying to assert greater control over their countries’ natural resources.⬇️ 1/6

JNIM has attacked foreign worksites two times in June and threatened that all companies operating in Mali must secure permission from JNIM to continue operations in early June.

JNIM had only attacked foreign companies in 2025 two other times, both in May 2025. 2/6

The juntas have continued seizing foreign mining assets as part of their sovereigntist campaign to extract more revenue from their countries’ mineral resources.

The Burkinabe and Malian juntas have taken control of several gold mines in June.

Niger nationalized the Nigerien subsidiary of French uranium company Orano on June 19. 3/6

Read 6 tweets

Critical Threats

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Jun 20

NEW | Iranian officials have expressed interest in negotiating an end to the Israel-Iran conflict but have not moderated their negotiating positions from before the conflict.

Iranian proposals that do not fulfill US demands, such as the US demand for zero Iranian uranium enrichment, will likely preclude Iran from reaching a new nuclear deal with the United States and a ceasefire in the Israel-Iran War.

The IDF has continued to strike Iranian nuclear, military, and energy infrastructure. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said on June 19 that "preventing [Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s] existence” is one of the Israeli air campaign’s objectives.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei appointed Brigadier General Mohammad Karami as the IRGC Ground Forces commander on June 19. Khamenei’s appointment of Karami may reflect regime concerns about potential domestic unrest, given that Karami has previously been involved in suppressing internal dissent.

Read 6 tweets

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Jun 17

NEW | The IAEA confirmed that Israeli strikes have impacted underground infrastructure at the Natanz nuclear site. This came after the IAEA reported that Israeli strikes have likely damaged or destroyed thousands of centrifuges at Natanz.

A US weapons expert identified three explosive impacts above the underground enrichment facilities at Natanz on June 17.

It is unclear what damage, if any, these strikes inflicted on the complex. The IAEA stated that there has been no change to the status of the Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center or Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant.

Israel has continued striking Iranian military targets, which has likely degraded Iranian missile forces significantly. This degradation is reflected in the decreasing volume of Iranian missile fire at Israel.

Israel has continued striking energy infrastructure and regime sites connected to domestic surveillance and repression. These strikes could reduce the ability of the regime to control the population and, in turn, destabilize it.

Read 8 tweets

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