Thread by @sfrantzman

Israel's Ynet says IDF possibly "preparing for a new phase in its campaign against Hamas on Sunday, as heavy airstrikes pounded northern Gaza and military officials weighed a deeper ground maneuver, potentially including a renewed incursion into Gaza City."

Is this the third "new phase" since March 2025? There was one that began on March 1 after the ceasefire fell apart; it truly began on March 18...then another one began after May 5 with Gideon's Chariots. Now, it's June 29...and yet another.

What the report says is a "deeper" maneuver...the IDF has spent the last months basically re-taking buffer areas around Gaza, leaving Hamas in charge of the central camps and Gaza city. 632 days of war and the IDF basically never went into parts of Gaza city or the central camps.

I remember having a conversation with someone a year ago and I'd said that the IDF still needs to defeat Hamas and remove it. They said "but hasn't Israel taken all of Gaza and defeated Hamas"...I had to remind them that, no...the Israeli offensive always leaves Hamas in charge of around half of Gaza. And it's the same a year later.

No one can explain the strategy or tactics. A terrorist group murders 1,200 people in one day and kidnaps 250. The group only has 30,000 fighters and controls a small area. Instead of removing the group systematically...the group is allowed to remain for 632 days and the civilian population of Gaza is always asked to move to areas run by the terrorist group, so it can continue to control the civilians and territory.

So far, Hamas is reduced to having a few thousand fighters supposedly and almost all its commanders have been killed, and yet it still is facing four IDF divisions and controlling almost half of Gaza...and almost all the civilians in Gaza. It's fascinating.