Jun 29 19 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Worth answering 'on main' & cross-posting from The Good Place.

Victor Davis Hanson's work has been reappraised in 2 ways: the quality of his work substantially changed post-1998, but also the arguments of his early work experienced pushback, which he has largely not answered. 1/ Image
Let's start with the early works, by which we mostly mean Warfare and Agriculture (1983; rev. 1998), Western Way of War (1989) and The Other Greeks (1995).

These, especially WWoW, made substantial impacts when they first appeared, set the 'orthodoxy' on hoplites in the 90s. 2/
Large parts of that WWoW model have come under significant scholarly pressure - @Roelkonijn can sing on this, for he is one of the chief critics here.

Critiques range from the mechanics of battle to the social underpinnings of hoplite warfare, and they're very substantial. 3/
They're also basically unanswered.

We'll get to this, but VDH has made basically no effort to answer the substantive critiques of his ideas and few scholars have lined up to do so in his stead, in part because he rendered himself toxic (see below), but not only that. 4/
Not the place to get into the hoplite-debates; for my part, I think some of the WWoW model can be salvaged, but very large parts have to be jettisoned.

I'm not entirely convinced by the opposing ('heterodox') model, associated with Hans van Wees, but the VDH model has to go.5/
My instinct is to look for a synthesis along the lines gestured at by E.L. Wheeler, 'Mad Hatters and March Hares' (2011), but it's hard to see who would do it.

The van Wees crowd is convinced they have the correct model, VDH has no apprentices, the rest of us do Romans.🤷‍♂️ 6/
I should note that factor in the lack of defense for VDH on hoplites: he never took/got a position to take graduate students (I suspect he could have done) and so has no body of apprentices carrying forward (or *testing*) his ideas; the contrast with van Wees is marked. 7/
The result in terms of the 'great hoplite debate' is that the USS VDH has sunk, abandoned by all crew save the captain.
The HMS van Wees sails with a flotilla, but many are still in the water, unwilling to salvage VDH, fully jump on board with van Wees, or build their own boat.8/
That leaves the second part of this equation: even as VDH's early scholarship has undergone reassessment, from which he has not bothered to defend it, he has continued writing.

And while his early work was at least thought provoking, his later stuff is just frankly junk. 9/
You can broadly split it into two groups:
1) The polemics (WKH, Bonfire of the Humanities, Mexifornia, etc.) which are most of his writing, more or less purely political and often very tendentiously argued.
2) The works of military history wildly outside of VDH's specialty. 10/
This latter group is, broadly speaking, a mess, beginning with Carnage and Culture (2001), a deeply flawed book with gaping evidentiary and argument problems which came out at just the right time to make a big impression on all of the wrong people.

Disaster of a book. 11/
I do not think I have yet met a historian who thinks *their* period in Carnage and Culture was well handled.

There are military historians who can handle a broad range of periods, but VDH isn't one; his later, sweeping works have all been poorly received. 12/
The elephant in the room here is his politics - VDH is very MAGA and pro-Trump - and while that shouldn't play a role, it does.

VDH's post-2000 work is junk, but there are things to salvage in his early work..but who's going to do that, given how toxic his politics make him?13/
One thing I would note is that VDH's ideology, sub-surface but relevant in his early work, becomes very clear in his later works: his ideal is the yeoman citizen-soldier-farmer under a farmer's republic, market oriented but culturally insular & largely closed to new entrants. 14/
He views that social structure as the core of what he'd call the western tradition and believes it is both morally & militarily superior.
There is an irony that subsequent work in the field has substantially undermined the idea that the Greek poleis was this sort of society. 15/
VDH really wants hoplite armies composed of free small farmers with small households (and few slaves), where nearly all free men are citizen-hoplites, but it's becoming clear that the hoplite class was smaller as a slice of these societies than this model admits. 16/
Ironically the society notionally closer to his model may have been the Roman Republic, which had a broader smallholder infantry class.

But while VDH loves Roman civic militarism, he pointedly avoids Roman cultural openness and incorporation, despite obvious USA parallels. 17/
Of course, "the best society is a closed society of citizen-warrior-farmers with internal freedom, but a hedge of spears against outsiders" is at least fascism-adjacent, when it isn't just fascism.
VDH also loves charismatic leaders ('Savior Generals').

So there's that.18/
Meanwhile his early work, undefended, has fallen out of favor, frequently for good scholarly reason. /endh and isn't taken remotely seriously by other military historians.

Meanwhile his early work, undefended, has fallen out of favor, frequently for good scholarly reasons. /end

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More from @BretDevereaux

Jun 23
Seems bad!

For reference, my understanding is that the Iranian 'highly enriched' Uranium is about 60% u-235.

Little Boy (the Hiroshima bomb) used 64kg of 80% enriched uranium.

Modern 'weapons grade,' enrichment is generally about 90% u-235.
('Enrichment' here is sorting out fissile u-235 (about 0.7% of naturally occurring uranium) from stable u-238 (the other ~99.3%)).

So it sure seems like if you were going to attempt a first-strike against a uranium enrichment program, you'd want to know where the uranium was.
My sense is this has always been one of the chief concerns for why 'deal' might be preferable over 'strike' - if you strike and miss, the uranium vanishes into the vastness of Iran until it reemerges as a successful nuclear test in 6 months, a year, two years.
Read 4 tweets
Jun 11
I disagree - there were 11 US Army colonels from Virginia in 1861 and only one of them betrayed his oath to the United States - but I wonder if @MattWalshBlog would be willing to extend his logic to someone in LA who shoots ICE agents to 'stand beside' his community in battle? Image
To be clear:
1) As far as I know, no one in LA has tried to shoot at ICE - they're protestors, not rebels, no matter what the administration says and
2) No one should start shooting at ICE, obviously.

But I do want to highlight the hypocrisy here of who 'gets' to rebel.
Of course there is a consistent ideological system where Robert E. Lee is a 'good' rebel but the folks in LA are 'bad' 'rebels,' it's just that the key premise is that the state fundamentally belongs to white people.

An assertion proponents should have to defend.
Read 4 tweets
Apr 9
There's an episode in Plutarch during the dictatorship of Julius Caesar, where Marcus Antonius (Antony) at a major Roman festival (the Lupercalia) offers Caesar a crown.

But the crowd isn't buying it: the cheer when Caesar refuses the crown. 1/
And Plutarch reports there was a bit of a pantomime, where Antony would offer the crown and the crowd would sulk, only the sycophants would cheer.

And then Caesar would refuse it, and the crowd would cheer loudly.

And again: offer and silence; refusal and cheers. 2/
It's not entirely clear what Caesar and Antony were playing at, but one imagines that this was a 'trial balloon' for monarchy, that the crowd was supposed, at some point to relent.

Someone had, Plutarch says, put crowns on Caesar's statues at the same time. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Mar 16
It's astounding to watch him bluster because of how clear it is that he's emoting with missiles rather than engaging in strategy.

'I'm angry, so I'm gonna toss $2m missiles into $500 hovels until you stop" without any sense of if that will actually make someone stop. 1/
Now it is fair to also fault Biden for engaging in a water-treading 'solution' of escorts and smaller-scale strikes against missile sites, but Hegseth is running blindly into the very constraints that produced that approach.

It is the blindness that is remarkable.
2/
Namely: there's to be no amount of airpower-induced pain that will compel the Houthis to stop, nor does bombing the Houthis put leverage on Iran to stop supplying missiles.

Which leaves two options: treading water, Biden-style, or "caring about the Yemeni civil war." 3/
Read 9 tweets
Feb 28
One of the things that made the Roman Republic's alliance system in Italy - upon which was built the lion's share of Rome's victories - so successful was that the Romans handled the system tactfully.

Part of the 'deal' of the system was 'we won't humiliate you.' 1/
The process of *becoming* a Roman 'ally' in the moment of conquest or submission, might involve humiliation (and a lot of violence), but after that, you were 'in the club' and Rome would tolerate no violence against you or humiliation of you. 2/
Whereas Greek diplomacy could be astoundingly blunt, what Polly Low terms the 'Language of Kratos' ('strength'), the Romans never call subject Italian communities subjects, or 'those ruled by us' the way the Greeks would.

Always, *always* 'allies' (socii). 3/
Read 5 tweets
Feb 23
Some people seem a bit confused so let's talk: what Great Man Theory is, why I think Silver is wandering into it and why it doesn't work.

The key thing here is fundamentally it is two propositions that come as a 'package deal' - reject either and it isn't Great Man Theory. 1/
When folks react with confusion at the rejection of Great Man Theory by historians, it is generally because they think it is just the first proposition, which we might put as, "historical events are often shaped by the decisions of key, powerful leaders." 2/
Now, actual Great Man Theory - in its original 19th century form (e.g. Thomas Carlyle and Johann Droysen; coining the term) - harden this position to insist that great changes in history are *always* *primarily* the result of the genius of a great man. 3/
Read 20 tweets

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