Hello, everyone! Thanks for the supportive comments on my post last week about the President's budget request and proposed cancelation of the NSF GRFP program which is funding my Ph.D. studies. All of this is really unnerving and sad. I worked hard to win a competitive NSF graduate research fellowship, and the current administration is now working to take money away from me and many other students.
The field of Heliophysics will face irreversible damage if the budget passees surely affecting many aurora chasing data streams and models we all use. Also, the fundamental science that drives operational space weather tools will be near-impossible to do effectively if the PBR moves forward.
These are just facts and have nothing to do with my views. I am simply stating what will happen if the proposed budget moves forward.
I am attending a webinar tomorrow about the current situation and will provide more details about the timeline for all this to happen, but I DO know that things are still very much in flux, and we may not get any final decision until the end of the year.
In the meantime, I have been working to compile some points on advocacy. Right now, what is most effective is calling your representatives, and the time to call is NOW while the the 2026 Congressional Budget Bill is being put together in the House. An initial budget bill could come out as early as next week. It means a lot for members of the "general" public (You) to speak out against this. Calling your representatives is the most effective way to voice your opinion.
Note that you DO NOT need to be a U.S. citizen to advocate; your representative/senator represents all those who live in their district/state, regardless of their citizenship.
G4 (Kp 8)/SEVERE Geomagnetic Storming is POSSIBLE tomorrow as a large CME is expected to hit Earth on June 1 around midday UT (morning North America). What is going on? Who will see aurora and when? How can you track this anticipated event? Read on!
Right now, there are some sunspot groups on the Sun facing the Earth. Specifically, AR (active region) 4100 and 4099 are directly facing Earth and magnetically complex, harboring potential for solar flares and CME eruptions...
Around midnight UT on May 31, an M8.2 solar flare occured from AR 4100, launching a shockwave through the solar atmosphere and CME out into space. Due to the position of the active region, this CME is heading directly at Earth.
Heads up aurora chasers! Tomorrow, we could see aurora down to mid-latitudes including the U.S.-Canada border, central Europe, New Zealand, and Tasmania. G2/Kp 6 conditions are currently anticipated. Let's break down why this happening, and who will see aurora at what times! 🧵
First off, if you want to get these kind of threads emailed to you, you can sign up for my e-mail list: .
I send out these aurora alerts in anticipation of enhanced geomagnetic activity, and I try to give people a few days in advance to plan things out.go.theauroraguy.com/email
Okay, let's dive in!
First off, what is causing this forecasted period of enhanced geomagnetic activity? Well, yesterday morning UT time, we saw a nice filament eruption on the Sun. Filaments are like unstable plasma slinkies that can spontaneously lift off the Sun into space.
A very large coronal hole is now directly facing Earth. We may see a CIR/density compression followed by HSS (high speed stream) in the next 24-48 hours. These high-speed streams can trigger geomagnetic storms, usually of minor to moderate strength (Kp 5-6).
Here's a screenshot from my e-book "A Beginner's Guide to Aurora Chasing" which can be found for free using this link: .
It shows the characteristic solar wind pattern associated with the arrival of these high-speed streams. go.theauroraguy.com/ebook
In fact, NOAA SWPC has issued a G2 moderate geomagnetic storm watch for tomorrow. The exact timing of the arrival of the high-speed stream is looser than a CME - conditions usually change over the course of hours instead of during a CME where this is a shock at a moment in time.
What makes the aurora “explode?” In my most recent blog post, I go over a CRUCIAL concept in aurora chasing and space physics: Substorms! Learn more and read my blog: and in the thread below! 🧵theauroraguy.com/blogs/blog/wha…
Picture this… You’re out chasing the aurora in Fairbanks, Alaska watching a thin, faint arc stretching across the sky. Suddenly, this arc erupts and starts swirling and growing rapidly. Now, the aurora fills the sky with bright colors and active motion.
The intensity of the aurora is so bright you start seeing colors – greens and a thin fringe of purple on the bottom of the auroral arcs.
A coronal hole is currently sending a high-speed stream of solar wind at Earth, and we're beginning to feel it!
But, what are coronal holes, how can they affect Earth, are they dangerous, normal, and should you worry about them?
Let's take a deep dive into CORONAL HOLES! 🧵
If you downloaded my beginner's guide e-book on aurora chasing, you would already know the necessary info on coronal holes. Check out these screenshots detailing coronal holes and their effects on Earth and auroras. Get my e-book for free using this link: bit.ly/free-aurora-e-…
Okay, shameless plug over...
First of all, let me say the reason I am creating this thread now is because of all the hype coronal holes (CH) have received lately, and for largely no reason. Yes, we have one facing Earth now, but CH are normal and nothing to worry about.
A list of PSAs as we await a predicted major (G3) geomagnetic storm this week:
1. The CMEs could impact anytime tonight or tomorrow. The CME may hit tomorrow during the day, too, and completely fizzle out before nighttime. Models only get you so far...
2. I personally don't see any signature in low-energy particle fluxes to suggest a CME arrival at L1 *soon*. There may be a rise now and slight bump in solar wind, but it could be a small random blob of CME. EPAM is not a for sure sign of a CME, just another positive indicator.
Another warning on EPAM - there have been a lot of flares and general mess on the Sun and heliosphere. EPAM may pick up these other disturbances and make analysis hard. Don't get fooled by false flags and fake outs. Also, no one is a fortune teller with a perfect record.