A solar storm is on the way and may cause a moderate or even strong geomagnetic storm on Monday or Tuesday. Impact is predicted for around 20 UT on September 1, and auroras may be seen further equatorward than usual on Monday and Tuesday night. Here's what you need to know... Before we begin, a quick plug for my e-mail list where I sent out all this information earlier. I put a lot of work into crafting these alert messages, and they explain everything at a beginner level. You can sign up here to get these emails: go.theauroraguy.com/alerts

Now that aurora season is in full swing, it's important to have some good kit to capture the moment when that substorm hits. Let's talk about aurora photography gear and my recommendations for cameras and lenses at a variety of budgets. 🌌📷🧵 Before I go into specific models, let's talk about why you may or may not need to upgrade.

You probably have a phone that can take aurora pictures. While they can capture more than your eyes can see, it's impossible to print anything larger than a 4x5 and have it look good...

G4 (Kp 8)/SEVERE Geomagnetic Storming is POSSIBLE tomorrow as a large CME is expected to hit Earth on June 1 around midday UT (morning North America). What is going on? Who will see aurora and when? How can you track this anticipated event? Read on! Right now, there are some sunspot groups on the Sun facing the Earth. Specifically, AR (active region) 4100 and 4099 are directly facing Earth and magnetically complex, harboring potential for solar flares and CME eruptions...

Heads up aurora chasers! Tomorrow, we could see aurora down to mid-latitudes including the U.S.-Canada border, central Europe, New Zealand, and Tasmania. G2/Kp 6 conditions are currently anticipated. Let's break down why this happening, and who will see aurora at what times! 🧵 First off, if you want to get these kind of threads emailed to you, you can sign up for my e-mail list: .

I send out these aurora alerts in anticipation of enhanced geomagnetic activity, and I try to give people a few days in advance to plan things out.go.theauroraguy.com/email

A very large coronal hole is now directly facing Earth. We may see a CIR/density compression followed by HSS (high speed stream) in the next 24-48 hours. These high-speed streams can trigger geomagnetic storms, usually of minor to moderate strength (Kp 5-6). Here's a screenshot from my e-book "A Beginner's Guide to Aurora Chasing" which can be found for free using this link: .

It shows the characteristic solar wind pattern associated with the arrival of these high-speed streams. go.theauroraguy.com/ebook

What makes the aurora “explode?” In my most recent blog post, I go over a CRUCIAL concept in aurora chasing and space physics: Substorms! Learn more and read my blog: and in the thread below! 🧵theauroraguy.com/blogs/blog/wha… Picture this… You’re out chasing the aurora in Fairbanks, Alaska watching a thin, faint arc stretching across the sky. Suddenly, this arc erupts and starts swirling and growing rapidly. Now, the aurora fills the sky with bright colors and active motion.

A coronal hole is currently sending a high-speed stream of solar wind at Earth, and we're beginning to feel it!

But, what are coronal holes, how can they affect Earth, are they dangerous, normal, and should you worry about them?

Let's take a deep dive into CORONAL HOLES! 🧵 If you downloaded my beginner's guide e-book on aurora chasing, you would already know the necessary info on coronal holes. Check out these screenshots detailing coronal holes and their effects on Earth and auroras. Get my e-book for free using this link: bit.ly/free-aurora-e-…

A list of PSAs as we await a predicted major (G3) geomagnetic storm this week:

1. The CMEs could impact anytime tonight or tomorrow. The CME may hit tomorrow during the day, too, and completely fizzle out before nighttime. Models only get you so far... 2. I personally don't see any signature in low-energy particle fluxes to suggest a CME arrival at L1 *soon*. There may be a rise now and slight bump in solar wind, but it could be a small random blob of CME. EPAM is not a for sure sign of a CME, just another positive indicator.

🚨Important updates about the NYE aurora event. 🚨

1. Impact timing moved from 1 UTC Dec 31 --> 15 UT Dec 31

2. 1-2 punch - Two CMEs potentially arriving midday-late UTC on Dec 31. This could cause higher geomagnetic activity. Kp 6-7 storming seems most likely, not G4 imo.
NASA model: Impact evening hours UTC on Dec 31. Kp 6-8 predicted.

Unlike NOAA and HUXt, NASA M2M has not added a composite model with the multiple Earth-directed CMEs, yet.

There is a chance of aurora and a G3/Kp 7 geomagnetic storm for December 31 UTC day. 2024 has truly been the "Year of the Aurora," and it could end with quite the bang! Keep reading to find out where and when we could see the aurora before the New Year! 🧵 Here is the official bulletin from @NWSSWPC who are predicting a G3/Kp 7 geomagnetic storm as a result of a coronal mass ejection, or CME. Since these bulletins are hard to read if you are not accustomed to the space weather lingo, let me break things down for you...

Why are auroras becoming more frequent globally, even in regions far from the poles?

I get this question a lot, but recently, I have been flooded with the simple question, "Is this normal?" Let me explain why we are seeing more auroras this year. While there is space weather activity every day, and things change on the order of minutes, hours, and days, the Sun controls the climate in space and operates on an 11-year activity cycle called the solar cycle.

G4 GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH MEGATHREAD (continuously updated)
When will you see northern lights tomorrow?
Who will see them?
When is the CME impacting?
What's going on?
How can I make sure I see the aurora?
Will I see the aurora where I live?
Let me try and answer these Qs. This will be a long thread. A synposis will be sent to my email list via an aurora alert summarizing all the activity going on. You will also get my 60+ page aurora chasing e-book for free which is the highest-rated aurora e-book online. Sign up: bit.ly/free-aurora-e-…

Ever wondered how CMEs are modeled and what that means for geomagnetic storm forecasts?

Well, in this recent blog post and in the thread below, I explain CME modeling and how to use the HUXt forecast:
theauroraguy.com/blogs/blog/aur… If you've been tuned into space weather for any amount of time, then you've probably seen geomagnetic storm forecasts from the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) posted on social media hyping up certain events and aurora possibilities.

After seeing these posts, you may ask yourself, "What are those?" or "How accurate are those forecasts?" and maybe even "How do they make those predictions?" Well, the short answer is that these geomagnetic storm predictions are created from CME model outputs, but the majority of the time, the models, how they work, and most importantly, their uncertainties, are not communicated in the forecast that ends up blasted all over social media.

In this blog, I'll walk you through how coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are modeled and worked into geomagnetic storm forecasts and introduce you to the HUXt model - a user-friendly platform for monitoring space weather events from the Sun to the Earth

HOW TO CHASE THE G3 GEOMAGNETIC STORM AURORA TOMORROW - MEGATHREAD!

Let's assume the CME just hit and you are ready to go out? What should you do? What data do you look at? Where should you drive? How do you take a photo?

As a professional aurora chaser, let me explain... First, the CME needs to hit... current forecasts from major space weather centers are saying the CME will hit tomorrow (Monday) around midday UT, but really, these models have errror bars. This means the CME could hit in the morning UT or the evening UT. UT is universal time and is the standard time zone for all official/scientific forecasts and discussion. To switch between UT and something like CDT (central daylight time), use a time zone converter. This is my favorite one:

Keep in mind that this is a glancing blow according to the models. It is entirely possible we see NOTHING at Earth. It has happened before even with CMEs coming at us head on that we see nothing. Forecasting space weather is hard, and while we get better with each model, prediction, and forecast validation, tomorrow's geomagnetic storm is still only a possibility, not for sure.worldtimebuddy.com

Will we get aurora on Monday night? There is a G3 geomagnetic storm (Kp 7) currently forecasted, meaning the lights could be seen down to mid or even low-latitudes!
What is happening, when will it hit, will there be aurora, and how can you see it? Let's dive in! What happened?!

A CME (coronal mass ejection) occurs when a large chunk of the Sun's atmosphere blows off the Sun, like a Sun "sneeze." These can occasionally be directed at Earth. Yesterday, an X-class (strongest classification) solar flare destabilized the Sun's atmosphere, and a large cloud of plasma lifted off. Part of this cloud was directed at Earth and is expected to hit us sometime monday afternoon (UT time 11:00 am to 6 pm depending on which model you choose).

The video below shows a popular model that uses images from the Sun and fancy math to "launch" these CMEs into the solar system so we can see where they will end up and when. The view is if you were looking at the Sun from the top-down. Earth is the black dot on the right. You may also see other CME models from NASA/NOAA with other views, like this one (equatorial) or from the side (meridonial). These views show us how much of the CME hits Earth--if it's a glancing blow, it can be a little harder to predict whether we will get a sideswipe or the "meat" of the CME which is usually the strongest.

TL;DR: The Sun sneezed a big cloud of plasma. This happened because of a very strong solar flare that measured X-class, the strongest type we have. This CME was mostly directed away from us, but we might get clipped by the cloud of plasma. If this happens, we could see a geomagnetic storm and auroras.

This CME has been modeled by three groups (and more are coming):

The NOAA model is here:


The NASA model is here:


The HUXt model is here:
swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-e…
kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/CMEscoreboard/…
research.reading.ac.uk/met-spate/huxt…

What does the aurora REALLY look like?
(megathread)

This is a perennial question that seems to get brought up constantly in forums online, and after the big geomagnetic storms last month, I kept seeing false information about what the aurora "really looks like..." I wrote a blog on the topic which you can read here: but thought that writing things out in a big thead would be great in case people want to share or just enjoy content on X over an external site :)theauroraguy.com/blogs/blog/wha…

Hi, everyone! I made a quick guide with my tips of how to see the aurora, since I get this question a lot! It covers where and when to go as well as some insider tips to improve your chances to see the lights.
Read on!