Why are auroras becoming more frequent globally, even in regions far from the poles?

I get this question a lot, but recently, I have been flooded with the simple question, "Is this normal?" Let me explain why we are seeing more auroras this year. While there is space weather activity every day, and things change on the order of minutes, hours, and days, the Sun controls the climate in space and operates on an 11-year activity cycle called the solar cycle.

G4 GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH MEGATHREAD (continuously updated)
When will you see northern lights tomorrow?
Who will see them?
When is the CME impacting?
What's going on?
How can I make sure I see the aurora?
Will I see the aurora where I live?
Let me try and answer these Qs. This will be a long thread. A synposis will be sent to my email list via an aurora alert summarizing all the activity going on. You will also get my 60+ page aurora chasing e-book for free which is the highest-rated aurora e-book online. Sign up: bit.ly/free-aurora-e-…

Ever wondered how CMEs are modeled and what that means for geomagnetic storm forecasts?

Well, in this recent blog post and in the thread below, I explain CME modeling and how to use the HUXt forecast:
theauroraguy.com/blogs/blog/aur… If you've been tuned into space weather for any amount of time, then you've probably seen geomagnetic storm forecasts from the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) posted on social media hyping up certain events and aurora possibilities.

After seeing these posts, you may ask yourself, "What are those?" or "How accurate are those forecasts?" and maybe even "How do they make those predictions?" Well, the short answer is that these geomagnetic storm predictions are created from CME model outputs, but the majority of the time, the models, how they work, and most importantly, their uncertainties, are not communicated in the forecast that ends up blasted all over social media.

In this blog, I'll walk you through how coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are modeled and worked into geomagnetic storm forecasts and introduce you to the HUXt model - a user-friendly platform for monitoring space weather events from the Sun to the Earth

HOW TO CHASE THE G3 GEOMAGNETIC STORM AURORA TOMORROW - MEGATHREAD!

Let's assume the CME just hit and you are ready to go out? What should you do? What data do you look at? Where should you drive? How do you take a photo?

As a professional aurora chaser, let me explain... First, the CME needs to hit... current forecasts from major space weather centers are saying the CME will hit tomorrow (Monday) around midday UT, but really, these models have errror bars. This means the CME could hit in the morning UT or the evening UT. UT is universal time and is the standard time zone for all official/scientific forecasts and discussion. To switch between UT and something like CDT (central daylight time), use a time zone converter. This is my favorite one:

Keep in mind that this is a glancing blow according to the models. It is entirely possible we see NOTHING at Earth. It has happened before even with CMEs coming at us head on that we see nothing. Forecasting space weather is hard, and while we get better with each model, prediction, and forecast validation, tomorrow's geomagnetic storm is still only a possibility, not for sure.worldtimebuddy.com

Will we get aurora on Monday night? There is a G3 geomagnetic storm (Kp 7) currently forecasted, meaning the lights could be seen down to mid or even low-latitudes!
What is happening, when will it hit, will there be aurora, and how can you see it? Let's dive in! What happened?!

A CME (coronal mass ejection) occurs when a large chunk of the Sun's atmosphere blows off the Sun, like a Sun "sneeze." These can occasionally be directed at Earth. Yesterday, an X-class (strongest classification) solar flare destabilized the Sun's atmosphere, and a large cloud of plasma lifted off. Part of this cloud was directed at Earth and is expected to hit us sometime monday afternoon (UT time 11:00 am to 6 pm depending on which model you choose).

The video below shows a popular model that uses images from the Sun and fancy math to "launch" these CMEs into the solar system so we can see where they will end up and when. The view is if you were looking at the Sun from the top-down. Earth is the black dot on the right. You may also see other CME models from NASA/NOAA with other views, like this one (equatorial) or from the side (meridonial). These views show us how much of the CME hits Earth--if it's a glancing blow, it can be a little harder to predict whether we will get a sideswipe or the "meat" of the CME which is usually the strongest.

TL;DR: The Sun sneezed a big cloud of plasma. This happened because of a very strong solar flare that measured X-class, the strongest type we have. This CME was mostly directed away from us, but we might get clipped by the cloud of plasma. If this happens, we could see a geomagnetic storm and auroras.

This CME has been modeled by three groups (and more are coming):

The NOAA model is here:


The NASA model is here:


The HUXt model is here:
swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-e…
kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/CMEscoreboard/…
research.reading.ac.uk/met-spate/huxt…

What does the aurora REALLY look like?
(megathread)

This is a perennial question that seems to get brought up constantly in forums online, and after the big geomagnetic storms last month, I kept seeing false information about what the aurora "really looks like..." I wrote a blog on the topic which you can read here: but thought that writing things out in a big thead would be great in case people want to share or just enjoy content on X over an external site :)theauroraguy.com/blogs/blog/wha…

Hi, everyone! I made a quick guide with my tips of how to see the aurora, since I get this question a lot! It covers where and when to go as well as some insider tips to improve your chances to see the lights.
Read on!