PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 30, 2025 (U.S.)
The CDC made a major revision to their recent data, indicating that instead of the largest increase since January, transmission is *flat* nationally. 🙃
If following historical trends, this should push back the incoming wave about 10 days. The 11th wave is anticipated to pass 500,000 daily infections around July 19.
There is substantial uncertainty around this estimate with the low quality of the real-time estimates coming in (over the long-term, data quality remains high). The CDC data correlate highly with Biobot and WastewaterSCAN, and this is nothing nefarious, just an atypically large revision; it happens, and the likelihood seems to be highest when exiting lulls or peaks, probably more likely now with delays in CDC funding, many smaller sites closing in the Northeast, etc. The CDC also typically restandardizes their data around Jan 1 and Jul 1 (forthcoming), which also will have an unknown impact on estimated cases and trends (my guess would be a minor revision upward).
Note that with the downward revision, current transmission is back to tracking that of two summers ago (yellow line in year-over-year graph). Some might wonder whether the summer wave could be inconsequential or hope that transmission could just dwindle. That would be excellent news but is not informed by data. In 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024, transmission was already high (2022) or increased substantially in July (all other years). Our forecast shows what to expect based on historical trends and incoming data, and to suggest inconsequential transmission would be a bold claim.
Presently, the U.S. is seeing 1.7 million weekly infections, anticipated to result in 85,000-340,000 #LongCOVID conditions and 600-1,000 excess deaths. This is during the -- now revised as ongoing -- relative lull.
The CDC made a major revision to their recent data, indicating that instead of the largest increase since January, transmission is *flat* nationally. 🙃
If following historical trends, this should push back the incoming wave about 10 days. The 11th wave is anticipated to pass 500,000 daily infections around July 19.
There is substantial uncertainty around this estimate with the low quality of the real-time estimates coming in (over the long-term, data quality remains high). The CDC data correlate highly with Biobot and WastewaterSCAN, and this is nothing nefarious, just an atypically large revision; it happens, and the likelihood seems to be highest when exiting lulls or peaks, probably more likely now with delays in CDC funding, many smaller sites closing in the Northeast, etc. The CDC also typically restandardizes their data around Jan 1 and Jul 1 (forthcoming), which also will have an unknown impact on estimated cases and trends (my guess would be a minor revision upward).
Note that with the downward revision, current transmission is back to tracking that of two summers ago (yellow line in year-over-year graph). Some might wonder whether the summer wave could be inconsequential or hope that transmission could just dwindle. That would be excellent news but is not informed by data. In 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024, transmission was already high (2022) or increased substantially in July (all other years). Our forecast shows what to expect based on historical trends and incoming data, and to suggest inconsequential transmission would be a bold claim.
Presently, the U.S. is seeing 1.7 million weekly infections, anticipated to result in 85,000-340,000 #LongCOVID conditions and 600-1,000 excess deaths. This is during the -- now revised as ongoing -- relative lull.
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