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Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
@michael_hoerger
Jul 2, 2025 • 43 tweets • 25 min read • Read on X
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🌍Want to track COVID transmission accurately worldwide?

This PMC thread walks you through leading dashboards with information more up to date than WHO & EU directories.

🧵 1/ World map, countries with high-quality up-to-date surveillance systems shown in blue.
The Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative (PMC) Dashboard provides weekly COVID updates for the U.S., using wastewater surveillance derived case estimation models and analytic forecasting.

We have added a list of international dashboards:
🧵 2/
pmc19.com/data/index.php…Australia: NSW Health Australia Department of Health, Western Australia Austria: Federal Government of Austria City of Vienna - Regional Coron-A Consortium Austria Czech Republic: State Health Institute Czech Republic Belgium: Belgian Institute for Health Canada: Government of Canada Andrew Young's Canada Visualization C19 Resources Canada * World Health Network (WHN) Canada **
Denmark: Statens Serum Institut Denmark Europe (multi-national): EU Wastewater Observatory Finland: National Institute for Health and Welfare Finland WHN Finland ** France: French Republic Data Airborne Risk Reduction Association (ARRA) France Zan Armstrong's France Visualization COVID Weather App France (Android, IOS, or Web) Thomas Delattre's France Visualization Germany: Infection Radar Germany Bay-VOC Bavaria Region Berlin Waterworks WHN Germany **
Hong Kong: Centre for Health Protection, Hong Kong Hungary: National Center for Public Health and Pharmacy of Hungary India: Pune Knowledge Cluster of India Gujarat Biotechnology Research Centre of India Ireland: Health Protection Surveillance Centre Ireland Japan: Japan Institute for Health Security Latvia: Institute of Food Safety, Animal Health and Environment Latvia Lithuania: National Public Health Centre of Luthuania Luxembourg: Microbs Luxembourg Netherlands: National Institute for Public Health and the Environment Netherlands WHN Netherlands ** New Zealand: New Zealand Institute for...
Slovenia: National Institute of Public Health Slovenia Spain: Government of Catalonia - Regional South Africa: National Institute for Communicable Diseases of South Africa South Korea: Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency Sweden: Pathogens Sweden Switzerland: Swiss Confederation Federal Office of Public Health ETH Zurich Switzerland WISE Dashboard U.K.: Public Health Scotland Buckinghamshire Disability Service (BuDS) U.K. *See the numbers 1-21 along the lower left. Click on 3-6 for national and regional data. ** Click on the dropdown menu. May need to try a different web browser.
Our international directory includes official government dashboards & those developed by citizen scientists.

We exclude countries that have stopped reporting in the past 2-12 months even if on EU or WHO lists. We also exclude low-quality data from opt-in testing programs.
🧵 3/
The Australia NSW Dashboard

Click on the most recent PDF report. Skip the outdated low-quality stats, and jump down to the pure gold around pg. 10.

Brown gold!

Wastewater data. Not looking good in Australia right now.

🧵 4/ health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/cov…4 wastewater sites, all ticking up in early exponential fashion.
Western Australia

Ignore the yellow line. That's garbage case-count data from antiquated public health thinking. Testing is opt-in. No testy, no casey.

The blue line is wastewater. No individual testing required. 💩 don't lie. Big wave.

🧵 5/ health.wa.gov.au/articles/a_e/c…Line graph shows the present wave, which may not have peaked yet, is the largest in a year. It may grown larger.
Austria

Transmission has been on an uptick the past 6 weeks.

Note: The 3rd link (Coron-A) has re-branded into the 1st link, but we've listed both in case useful.

abwassermonitoring.at/dashboard/
wien.gv.at/gesundheit/ein…
coron-a.at/dashboard/
🧵 5/ Line graph shows a recent bump in transmission, possibly small wave, unless merely the onset of a larger wave forthcoming.
Not much going on in Austria. Focus on the dark red line, not the lighter/brighter red line. This is a year-over-year graph, showing 3 years.
Czech Republic

The dashboard appears to have a reporting lag of 2 months, possibly due to recent flooding. Not the best quality data at the moment. Check back later.


🧵 6/ experience.arcgis.com/experience/edf…Steady transmission, but 2 months ago. Not a useful metric. Check back later to see if the reporting improves.
Looks like CR snuck ahead of Belgium and Canada in the line during this real-time thread. Fixed. Let me know if you catch other typos or cultural mistakes on the website.
🧵 7/
Belgium

Wastewater data show a recent uptick in transmission. Click on the dropdown menu for more specific locations.


🧵 8/ wastewater.sciensano.be/dashboard/covi…Prolonged uptick in transmission the past several months, about half the height of larger waves in the past year.
Canada - 1 of 4

The Government of Canada website his high transmission in the west. Scroll down for line graphs by region.

(High transmission is shown in "cool blue" like the U.S. CDC does. This counters geospatial ethical guidance.)



🧵 9/ health-infobase.canada.ca/wastewater/Canada heat map, "high" in the west
Canada - 2 of 4

Andrew Young makes nice visualizations of COVID, Flu, and RSV data. Here you can see the high transmission in British Columbia.



🧵 10/ wwater.caGraph shows high covid transmission in BC
Canada - 3 of 4

Tara Moriarty runs C19 Resources Canada. They put transmission data into useful metrics and offer other resources. They normally update every 2 weeks.

Scroll down &click on the numbers 3-6 in the lower left.


🧵 11/ covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-i…Dashboard example. Shows high in Canada overall, and then breaks down by region.
Canada - 3 of 4

Dr. Moriarty is on Twitter and BSky for easily digestible updates. Posts more over there. They have a big meeting in August you can join.


🧵 12/ bsky.app/profile/moriar…Screen shot of meeting info
Canada - 4 of 4

The World Health Network (WHN) posts data for selected areas of Canada. They provide case estimates, using a methodology similar to PMC.

If Chrome doesn't work, try Edge or another browser.


🧵 13/ whn.global/estimation-of-…Line graph with case estimates for metro Vancouver.
Denmark

SSID Dashboard: Generally, 'very low' COVID transmission in most places currently.


🧵 14/ en.ssi.dk/surveillance-a…line graph, currently in a relative lull
EU Multi-national Dashboard for Europe

It's slow & a little tricky to navigate but useful. You'll notice several countries have been delisted by PMC because they closed their surveillance programs very recently.



🧵 15/ …stewater-observatory.jrc.ec.europa.eu/#/content/the-…EU multi-faceted multi-national dashboard screenshot
Finland

National Institute for Health and Welfare Finland - shows a slight uptick of late.
thl.fi/episeuranta/ja…

We've also linked to some old WHN data that may be useful with case estimation:
whn.global/estimation-of-…

🧵 16/ Slight upward trend of late
France - 1 of 5

The French government has great Covid wastewater surveillance data, but you'll likely want to use independent visualizations. Scroll down the page.



🧵 17/ data.gouv.fr/fr/datasets/65…Some of the visualizations, screenshot
France - Dashboards 2, 3, 4, and 5

It's a mix of low versus spiking transmission across regions of France.

Check out these great Covid data visualizations for France.

associationarra.wordpress.com/suivi-regional…
observablehq.observablehq.cloud/pangea/varia/c…
sites.google.com/view/meteocovi…
tdelattre.shinyapps.io/SUMEau/
🧵 18/ First link, example of a spike in Amiens
2nd link, example, national transmission. Wave in progress, but marked by significant geographic variation
3rd link: an app for Android or ios, or via the web. Very simple visualization.
4th link, example, shows the spike in Amiens
Germany - 4 COVID Dashboards

Transmission is generally 'low' & rising.

Here are the dashboards. The WHN dashboard (try in Edge) has case estimates.

infektionsradar.gesund.bund.de/en/covid/sewage
bay-voc.lmu.de/abwassermonito…
hygiene-monitor.de/dashboard/coro…
whn.global/estimation-of-…

🧵 19/ Link 1, national, low but rising
Link 2, map depicting changes in Bayern area
Link 3, Berlin, elevated transmission, but not as high as a month ago
WHN: Has case estimates derived from wastewater
Hong Kong

CHP COVID Dashboard. Click on the most recent PDF. Skip all the legacy junk data from opt-in testing, and go down to around page 6 for wastewater.

Hong Kong is on the back end of a recent large wave.


🧵 20/ chp.gov.hk/en/resources/2…Wastewater data showing large recent wave, transmission still high
Hungary

Government COVID Dashboard. Click on the most recent report. Transmission is mostly 'low.' Scroll down for a lot more data.



🧵 21/ nngyk.gov.hu/hu/szennyviz.h…Line graph, shows low transmission of late
India

There are two main COVID Dashboards. The first in the Pune metro region seems more helpful due to more frequent sampling.

Pune has 'low' transmission after the recent wave.

pkc.org.in/pkc-focus-area…

lookerstudio.google.com/u/0/reporting/…
🧵 22/ Low transmission in Pune after a recent wave
Ireland

HPSC COVID Dashboard. Click on the most recent report. You can find data by region and nationally.

Transmission was picking up after a lull. The most recent data are for May 28, and they're publishing with just over a month lag.



🧵 23/ hpsc.ie/a-z/nationalwa…Graph shows a solid uptick as of late May
Japan

JIHS COVID Dashboard. It's all regional. Look at the blue lines (wastewater), not orange dots (reported cases, unhelpful).

Most places are 'low,' but there are some isolated spikes. Can someone aggregate the data nationally?


🧵 24/ id-info.jihs.go.jp/surveillance/n…Most places are low. This graph is for Yamanashi Prefecture B, which shows a recent spike
Latvia

Open the most recent PDF report. It has exquisite detail. Focus on the subtle dashed line (wastewater, useful), not the prominent bold line (reported cases, useless).

Transmission is 'low,' slightly increasing.



🧵 25/ bior.lv/lv/notekudenu-…Transmission graph, described in post
Lithuania

NPHC COVID Dashboard for Vilnius, Kaunas, and Klaipėda. Focus on the orange line (wastewater), not blue bars (reported cases).

Shown, Klaipėda has the most pronounced uptick, Vilnius not far behind.


🧵 26/ nvsc.lrv.lt/en/information…Graph for Klaipėda, shows increasing transmission
Luxembourg

Microbs COVID Dashboard. The graph shows an ongoing COVID wave. Click on the pins in the nearby map for regional data.



🧵 27/ microbs.lu/dashboards/res…Line graph, shows a current wave, just past a recent peak.
Netherlands

RIVM COVID Dashboard (graph shown). "Low" levels currently. Focus on the red line in this year-over-year graph.
rivm.nl/en/coronavirus…

WHN (open in Edge). Provides wastewater-derived case estimates for *many* locations.
whn.global/estimation-of-…
🧵 28/ Year over year line graph, summarized in post
New Zealand

PHF Science's COVID Dashboard. The graph shows the national trend. Also, browse by region. A wave is ongoing (green), presently highest in the Canterbury region.


🧵 29/ esr-cri.shinyapps.io/wastewater/Green line shows ongoing wave
Poland

Warsaw Sewerage COVID Dashboard. Go to the bottom graph. It's 2025 but mislabeled 2024.

The graph suggests 'low,' but I question their year-over-year standardization process. Possible wave.

🧵 30/ mpwik.com.pl/view/monitorin…Graph of 2025. Always shows low. They used to have more spikes in every prior year. They may have a longitudinal standardization issue. Take "recent changes" (increasing/decreasing) as more important than year-over-year comparisons.
Slovenia

NIPH COVID Dashboard: They provide regional graphs. The blue line is wastewater-derived estimates of true cases (useful). Ignore the red (reported cases).

Cheers to Slovenia for translating wastewater to a true case estimate! ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️



🧵 31/ modeliranje.nijz.si/epivode/epivod…Graphs available by selected regions. Most show low or low/moderate transmission currently.
Spain

Catalonia COVID Dashboard: Transmission is currently in an uptick (moderate levels, green). They took a 1-year break from recording levels, which is why that wave near the right looks weird.


🧵 32/ sarsaigua.icra.catTransmission (green) shows an uptick of late
South Africa

NICD COVID Dashboard. Transmission levels are presently 'low.'


🧵 33/ wastewater.nicd.ac.zaBlue line shows low transmission the past several months. The line is exceedingly low, so there may be longitudinal standardization issues. Pay closer attention to increases/decreases rather than year-over-year comparisons.
South Korea

Disease Control & Prevention Agency COVID Dashboard: Click on the most recent report, and download the PDF.

Transmission is presently moderate and sustained.


🧵 34/ dportal.kdca.go.kr/pot/bbs/BD_sel…Graph shows COVID wastewater levels, low, then high, now moderate for 2025
Sweden

Pathogens COVID Dashboard: The graph is terrible. Try selecting specific regions, or hover over the graph and use tools in the upper left to set the max closer to 100.

In Stockholm, for example, see a recent uptick in transmission.



🧵 35/ pathogens.se/dashboards/cov…Graph. It's quite terrible with every region selected. It zooms out so far, everything seems a lot non-wave of late. Zoom in or select specific regions for a clearer picture. Stockholm, shown here, has a recent uptick
Switzerland - 2 Dashboards

FOPH: Very limited COVID wastewater data (map)
idd.bag.admin.ch/diseases/covid…

ETH WISE Dashboard: Shows longitudinal trends
wise.ethz.ch

Both show 'low' transmission currently.
🧵 36/ Heat map - all low
Longitudinal graph, low, perhaps light uptick
U.K. - 1 of 2

Public Health Scotland: Shows COVID transmission is rising.

Keep in mind, during the UKHSA testing based surveillance study, transmission in Scotland and England correlated near perfectly (r=.99). Assume similar across the UK.


🧵 37/ scotland.shinyapps.io/phs-respirator…Line graph, recent uptick in transmission
U.K. - 2 of 2

Keep in eye on @BuDs_UK. They estimate transmission levels for England, using the metric people care about most (1 in ___ estimated infectious).

The UKHSA study enabled reasonable estimates along these lines.



🧵 38/buds.org.uk/category/our-w…
@BuDs_UK Highlights:
⭐️Many high-quality data sources around the world.
⭐️Some less-resources countries are still monitoring COVID well.
⭐️Slovenia makes true-case estimates!
⭐️Many good public health officials and citizen scientists making this happen. Keep fighting!!

🧵 39/
@BuDs_UK Concerns:
🔹Need to support low-resource countries to increase monitoring (South America, Africa, Asia).
🔹Gov't dashboards feature legacy low-quality data 1st (reported cases), have slow dashboards, or PDFs only.
🔹Stats provided rarely useful to general audiences.

🧵 40/
@BuDs_UK How can you help?
🔥Share, translate, and add commentary to what I have posted for your nearby dashboard.
🔥Provide your own updates weekly or monthly about your nearby dashboard.
🔥Let me know what dashboards I have missed, so I can review and add them.

🧵 41/
@BuDs_UK If you found this thread helpful, please re-share the first post too.
🧵 42/

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More from @michael_hoerger

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Apr 14
PMC COVlD Update, Apr 13, 2026

Levels are flat during a relative "lull" in transmission.
▪️1 in 187 estimated actively infectious
▪️260,000 estimated new daily infections
▪️High: OK, MS, WV
▪️Moderate: VT
▪️All other states low/very low in relative transmission

🧵THREAD 1/6 Heat map from CDC data and PMC prevalence estimates harmonizing CDC and Biobot wastewater data with IHME true case estimates to derive ongoing transmission projections
COVID-19 persists in 2026.

We are in a relative "lull" following a 12th wave, but at a baseline of 200-300K estimated new daily infections.

Transmission was lower in the era many refer to as #DuringCOVID, when multi-layered mitigation was used instead of denial.

🧵THREAD 2/6 Annotated graph of the 12 waves (U.S.)
Transmission during a "lull" is high in an absolute sense. Many people are getting infected.

Simultaneously, its low in a relative sense, or compared to so-called "typical" transmission. In most places, it's a safer time for medical/dental care.

🧵THREAD 3/6 Barometer showing lower relative transmission than usual
Read 6 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Apr 6
PMC COVlD Update, April 6, 2026

Transmission is stable in a relative "lull" nationally between waves.

We estimate that approximately 313,000 people are still getting infected per day, with outbreaks radiating from TN and MS.

🧵1 of 10 (don't miss #10)! Heat map with PMC estimates
With limited data reported, Mississippi has an estimated 1 in 27 residents actively infectious.

In a room of 25 people, that's a 61% chance of exposure, if no testing/isolation protocols.

🧵2 of 10 Alabama Low Alaska Very Low Arizona Very Low* Arkansas Low California Very Low Colorado Very Low Connecticut Low Delaware Low District of Columbia Very Low Florida Very Low Georgia Low Guam Low Hawaii Very Low Idaho Very Low Illinois Very Low Indiana Very Low Iowa Very Low Kansas Low Kentucky Moderate Louisiana Moderate Maine Very Low Maryland Low Massachusetts Very Low Michigan Low Minnesota Very Low Mississippi Very High*
1 in 24 people in Tennessee are estimated to be actively infectious with SARS-CoV-2. That's a 65% chance of exposure in a room of 25 people where nobody is testing/isolating.

🧵3 of 10 Missouri Moderate* Montana Very Low Nebraska Very Low Nevada Very Low New Hampshire Very Low New Jersey Low New Mexico Very Low New York Very Low North Carolina Low North Dakota Very Low* Ohio Very Low Oklahoma Low* Oregon Very Low Pennsylvania Low Rhode Island Very Low South Carolina Very Low South Dakota Low Tennessee Very High Texas Low Utah Very Low Vermont Moderate Virginia Moderate Washington Very Low West Virginia Low Wisconsin Very Low Wyoming Very Low
Read 10 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Apr 3
This is an unethically misleading study with findings easily explained by residual confounding. Some health systems and patients have thorough record keeping. Others don't. All sorts of variables will correlate (infections, cancers, anything else tracked in medical records).
This is a really obvious issue for an international epi study. It should not have been published.
The above study is using the same processes the anti-vaxxers use -- junk epi that does not account for confounding -- to support whatever pre-conceived notions the authors have, with absurdly large effects.

Read 4 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Mar 23
PMC #COVID Update, March 23, 2026 (U.S.)

Transmission levels have plummeted nationally as we shift from the 12th wave toward a relative "lull."

Over half the states have "Very Low" relative transmission, per the CDC.

🧵THREAD 1 of 8 Heat map using CDC levels and PMC estimate of prevalence (1 in 147 actively infectious nationwide).
Transmission varies considerably by state.

Highest
🔥Mississippi: 1 in 31 estimated actively infectious
🔥Michigan: 1 in 41
*Both states w/limited data though

Rates are quite low in relative terms in California, AZ, FL, HI, ID, MA, NV, NY, OR, RI, UT, WI

🧵THREAD 2 of 8 Alabama Very Low Alaska Very Low Arizona Very Low Arkansas Low* California Very Low Colorado Very Low Connecticut Low Delaware Moderate District of Columbia Low Florida Very Low Georgia Very Low Guam Very Low Hawaii Very Low Idaho Very Low Illinois Very Low Indiana Low Iowa Moderate Kansas Low Kentucky Moderate Louisiana Low Maine Very Low Maryland Moderate Massachusetts Very Low Michigan High* Minnesota Moderate Mississippi High* Missouri Low Montana Very Low Nebraska Low Nevada Very Low New Hampshire Low* New Jersey Low New Mexico Very Low New York Very Low North Carolina Low North Dakota...
The 6th anniversary of the WHO's pandemic declaration was March 11.

Bots, minimizers, & individuals' psychological defense mechanisms will downplay that.

Yet, the U.S. just had a 12th wave. We estimate >5 cumulative infections/person & ongoing health harms.

🧵THREAD 3 of 8 Graph of the 12 waves of the pandemic (U.S.)
Read 8 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Mar 14
As of today, the COVID-19 pandemic is now longer than WWII.
If you have been living in denial the past 6 years, know that the U.S. is winding down from a 12th wave of infections presently.
Denial is but one of several obvious defense mechanisms people use to try to block their awareness of the ongoing toll of COVID-19. There are many others.

Short-term capital also plays a role, but even that requires a large dose of defense mechanisms.

Read 7 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Jan 25
During this 12th COVlD wave, the CDC reports 1-in-3 states have "High" or "Very High" levels.

PMC estimates the proportion of residents actively infectious (prevalence):
◾️USA: 1 in 67
◾️IA: 1 in 27
◾️MI: 1 in 25
◾️IN & CT: 1 in 23
◾️ME: 1 in 21
◾️OK & SD: 1 in 17

🧵1/ Heat map using CDC data. National PMC prevalence estimate noted; estimated incidence of 732,000 new daily infections.
On average, Americans have have 5.0 cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections.

This week's infections are expected to result in 1/4 to 1 million new #LongCOVID conditions and ≈2,000 excess deaths.
🧵2/ Column 1: Table of state-level prevalence estimates. Highest estimates noted in the thread text. Column 2: Proportion Actively Infectious 1 in 67 (1.5%) New Daily Infections 732,000 Infections the Past Week 5,220,000 Infections in 2026 24,000,000 Cumulative Infections per Person 5.04 Long COVID Long COVID Cases Resulting 37,000 to 146,000 from New Daily Infections Long COVID Cases Resulting 261,000 to 1,040,000 from New Weekly Infections Excess Deaths Ex...
The wave peak is now estimated >10% higher than last week at 1.2 million new daily infections, nearly double the Delta wave.

We expect sustained high transmission (≈600,000 to 750,000 new daily infections) the next few weeks as COVlD circulates through schools/families.
🧵3/ Fig 1: Graph of 12 waves Fig 2: "Barometer" showing above average transmission Fig 3: Year-over-year graph, which informs the analytic forecast Fig 4: Forecast described in post
Read 4 tweets

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