Few #jobs report takeaways:
1) NFPs added +147K, much stronger than 106K exp and the even weaker whisper number, so call it a big beat with caveat: govt jobs were 1/2 of the total
2) Revisions to prior months added a handful of incremental jobs, though not meaningful
1/
1) NFPs added +147K, much stronger than 106K exp and the even weaker whisper number, so call it a big beat with caveat: govt jobs were 1/2 of the total
2) Revisions to prior months added a handful of incremental jobs, though not meaningful
1/
3) U-rate fell to 4.1% vs. a small exp incr. as labor force participation dipped
4) Avg hourly earnings +0.2% ; intermediate term trend looks like three tenths, so this month largely evens out last month to return to trend
2/
4) Avg hourly earnings +0.2% ; intermediate term trend looks like three tenths, so this month largely evens out last month to return to trend
2/
5) Industry highlights incl contrux (+15K surprisingly), healthcare (+59K slowest since mid-'24), gov't (+73K this was the big surprise)
6) The HH report incl 222K job gains, but 329K people existing the labor markets, possibly immigration-related, though less than May
3/
6) The HH report incl 222K job gains, but 329K people existing the labor markets, possibly immigration-related, though less than May
3/
Markets had 90%+ odds of rate cut by Sept priced in; not sure I see anything here that reinforces the timeline as still lot of data between here and there, but on the margin, this is an anti-cut report.
Fin/
Fin/
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
