Rufybaba Profile picture
Jul 3 11 tweets 2 min read Read on X
The last time the exchange rate stabilised was in 2017 with the creation of the I&E (Investor & Exporter) window. Following its introduction, inflows surged, liquidity improved, and the FX market became stable after years of instability. Image
However, that stability was bound to be temporary. The FX rate was poised to climb again simply because long-term stability is impossible when the inflation rates for the Naira (NGN) and the US Dollar (USD) are different.
The exchange rate should typically move in line with the differential between the inflation rates of the two currencies.
The long-term average inflation for the NGN is around 12% (though it has recently risen to about 15%-18%), while the long-term average for the USD has been about 2%.
This means that business owners (and indeed, anyone with FX exposure) should factor an annual Naira depreciation of 10% - 15% into their financial projections. If you had applied this approach back in 2017, the recent shock in the FX market would not have caught you by surprise.
Even though the official rates were lower for a time, you would have already budgeted for where the rate should realistically be. That is the essence of understanding macroeconomic principles and applying them to your operations.
That way, you won't be one to claim that 'economic theories' don't work in Nigeria.
While some analyses might suggest that the Naira is undervalued at current levels, the situation is more complex due to several other factors. First, confidence is still weak.
The memory of prior years' FX backlogs continues to worry foreign investors. Call it some kind of PTSD.
There are also issues around the accuracy of Nigeria's true inflation rate. Accurate inflation data is critically important for getting prices right in financial markets.
Going forward, do not lose sight of these principles. Apply them appropriately and make decisions that will help you navigate the economic environment effectively.

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More from @Rufyb

Jun 27
Let us have a small gist.

How do the poor feel the impact? My sense is that it occurs when their income levels rise and when prices of goods and services are lower/stable.

Before those two things can happen, businesses need to be prosperous...
By prosperity, we mean that coys have to be profitable (via sustainable sources) so that they decide to expand capacity. There must also be signs of corporate profitability so that new businesses are encouraged to enter the market.
If existing corporations expand capacity or new businesses emerge, this means job creation (e.g., when Nestlé expands capacity by building more factories, it means more workers).
Read 10 tweets
Jun 26
Africa needs it.

If lenders have control over borrowers' cash flows, they will be willing to do more. Currently, that control is difficult to achieve, which is why banks only offer salary loans.

It is also why Credit Direct has been relatively successful...
Their business model allows them to maintain asset quality because they have control over the cash flows of their type of client: Civil servants.

Asset quality is great, but the downside is that, in my opinion, there is a cap on how they can scale.
Partnerships with HR platforms like PaidHR or SeamlessHiring may work, but bottlenecks remain.
Read 4 tweets
Jun 25
I think it may be time for me to take NGX seriously. Temi Popoola, CFA, the new Group CEO, has been doing quite a lot of work there (an excellent individual, by the way), and the operating environment has been quite friendly, too... Image
On a YTD basis, total transactions are up by 60% from ₦2 trillion last year to ₦4 trillion this year -really strong. On a FY basis, the NGX facilitated ₦6 trillion worth of transactions (about 2% of GDP) and earned ₦8 billion in fee income.
With that run rate, the NGX will likely facilitate ₦10 trillion worth of transactions in FY 2025 and could earn ₦13 billion in fees.
Read 8 tweets
Jun 23
These days, especially in Lagos, owning a car is no longer considered a luxury. It has now become a necessity, given all the hustle and bustle of Lagos.

@cowrywise has released another fantastic report: The Economics of Car Ownership, aimed at providing key information... Image
... to young professionals about the cost dynamics associated with owning a car, and the benefits of owning a car relative to alternative means of transport.
The key takeaways for me are:
Read 11 tweets
Jun 21
The reactions to this post have been very interesting. Thanks everyone. The common questions or comments I’ve been seeing from folks are:

☞ Why are PE funds not raising funds locally
☞ What is the solution?

I wish I had the answers, but sadly, I do not. But...
... we may need to understand a couple of things:

The underlying problem is the required return. For businesses operating in Africa, or, let’s say, Nigeria, the expected growth rate is high, and that's because of the risks or perceived risks.
For your business to be worth it, you need to grow by 53% every year. That is too high. How many companies can do that?

Traditional businesses surely can not deliver such growth consistently (because of their structure and capex intensity).
Read 16 tweets
Jun 20
Converting your Naira to buy USD and simply keeping it under your pillow should naturally deliver an average annual return of 12%–14%, thanks to consistent currency depreciation.

Now, if you invest that USD in the S&P 500, which has historically returned 11%–12% annually...
... your required return totals about 26% per year.

Over a 10-year period, this investment should yield 3x returns in USD. When you convert that back to Naira after 10 years, you’re looking at a 10x return in Naira.
Therefore, we have the following baseline expectation:

☞ 3x in foreign currency (FCY)
☞ 10x in local currency (LCY)
Read 11 tweets

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