Thread by @WarSpotting

With Jun 2025 over, let's take a bird eye look at it in our #MonthlyLosses overview.

TL;DR: At 153 confirmed 🇷🇺 losses in 🇺🇦 — 30% drop compared to May (214 initially, 234 now), which, itself, was 30% drop compared to Apr (!) — it's now the lowest month on the record 🤯

1/

In a strange scheme of things, at 14 confirmed grand total it also happens to be the highest grossing month in airplane department! And quite frankly, it's going to be hard to beat considering *the kind* of damage incurred, for the most part courtesy of operation 🕷️🕸️

2/

As unintended side effect of these developments, our map view now, admittedly, looks increasingly bizarre:

3/ ukr.warspotting.net/map/

Even so, 2025 almost seems like it's in a free fall now. Chances are in upcoming months we'll see new record lows (under 100? totally on the table) until it stabilises at a new norm, or some black swan event occurs.

4/

Rather unexciting but also new is how Donetsk oblast now completely dominates at 80 (52%) losses attributed to it with everything else at or under 10 — except Kursk at 15.

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Overall, it seems like this is what the war is like now: while conventional armoured losses are tumbling down, 🇷🇺 is increasingly exploiting unconventional means of achieving its ends on and beyond battlefield as 🇺🇦 struggles to secure further support from its allies.

6/

This isn't recipe for anything good. But here's the thing: this war has proved more than once it also isn't going the way everybody — incl. 🇷🇺, to begin with — believes it will.

7/

The good news is most of what 🇷🇺 is currently betting on is still very much vulnerable to conventional counter-measures such as FPV drones.

Consider funding one with $10, the best investment you'll make this week, as well as a chance to win actual stuff:

https://x.com/wilendhornets/status/1940074962741567929