With Jun 2025 over, let's take a bird eye look at it in our #MonthlyLosses overview.
TL;DR: At 153 confirmed π·πΊ losses in πΊπ¦ β 30% drop compared to May (214 initially, 234 now), which, itself, was 30% drop compared to Apr (!) β it's now the lowest month on the record π€―
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In a strange scheme of things, at 14 confirmed grand total it also happens to be the highest grossing month in airplane department! And quite frankly, it's going to be hard to beat considering *the kind* of damage incurred, for the most part courtesy of operation π·οΈπΈοΈ
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As unintended side effect of these developments, our map view now, admittedly, looks increasingly bizarre:
Even so, 2025 almost seems like it's in a free fall now. Chances are in upcoming months we'll see new record lows (under 100? totally on the table) until it stabilises at a new norm, or some black swan event occurs.
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Rather unexciting but also new is how Donetsk oblast now completely dominates at 80 (52%) losses attributed to it with everything else at or under 10 β except Kursk at 15.
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Overall, it seems like this is what the war is like now: while conventional armoured losses are tumbling down, π·πΊ is increasingly exploiting unconventional means of achieving its ends on and beyond battlefield as πΊπ¦ struggles to secure further support from its allies.
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This isn't recipe for anything good. But here's the thing: this war has proved more than once it also isn't going the way everybody β incl. π·πΊ, to begin with β believes it will.
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The good news is most of what π·πΊ is currently betting on is still very much vulnerable to conventional counter-measures such as FPV drones.
Consider funding one with $10, the best investment you'll make this week, as well as a chance to win actual stuff:
This #MonthlyLosses update is going to be super quick since there's not much to say about May 2025 other than at 214 documented π·πΊ losses in πΊπ¦ it's incredible 30% drop compared to Apr (initially 303, now 330), already quite unimpressive.
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As a matter of fact, it's ~1/3 of what it used to be some 6 months ago, although to be fair Oct/Nov 2024 was well above average.
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Even so, May 2025 is currently 2nd lowest month since the beginning of the war, only next to Apr 2023 at 209. We expect it'll gain couple dozen losses over time although unlikely to move far away from the bottom 3.
Somewhat remarkably, last month (Apr) yielded nearly exact same amount of #MonthlyLosses as the month before (Mar): 303 vs 301. That, of course, means nothing as Mar went up to 350-ish since then. Here's some other things that don't necessarily mean much π§΅
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Not only Mar but previous months beefed up as well. Oct/Nov 2024 is further through the 500 roof now. One thing's unchanged: it's been incredibly packed at 345 Β±15 since last Dec.
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As a matter of fact, with only 301 out of 630+ entries submitted over last month and attributed to it, the other 330+ obviously go to the previous periods, mostly 2024 so far. All due to recent aerial evidence, courtesy of [censored].
With March 2025 over now, let's take a higher level #MonthlyLosses look at it. This time a quick one because at 301 total confirmed π·πΊ losses in πΊπ¦, it's completely in line with Feb 2025, which in the meantime went from 295 initially reported to 321 now.
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Here's one number to comprehend the rate of this catch up thing: during last month we've created over 430 new entries but only 301 were attributed to it meaning the other 130+ went to previous months. Okay, three numbers.
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That didn't change much the steady look of the last 4 months though. Since Dec 2024 confirmed π·πΊ monthly losses remain in quite tight 330 Β±6% bracket.
With Feb 2025 having just passed, let's do a quick #MonthlyLosses recap. There's not much to write home about simply because at 295 total confirmed π·πΊ losses in πΊπ¦, it's very much in line with Jan featuring what looks like a new norm now. Let's have a closer look though.
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Once again, Feb 2025 looks virtually indistinguishable from Jan, especially compared to through-the-roof-ish Oct/Nov last year. What's new is exactly zero captures last month, indicative of little frontline movement.
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Also new β compared to last 6 months β is IFV-to-MBT loss ratio falling back to its long-term ~2:1 average. What was pushing it up during Aug-Dec is rather unclear but here's some hints...
With Jan 2025 well behind us, it's now a good time to take a quick look back at it, isn't it?
At 263 total confirmed π·πΊ losses in πΊπ¦, it's fairly low. In fact, last time we reported #MonthlyLosses below 300 was Nov 2023. Yet this is unsurprising, and here's why.
π§΅
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Jan 2025 just continues π trend we started observing last Dec with monthly totals rapidly going down to ~50% of what they used to be just a couple months ago.
π·πΊ finally running out of armoured vehicles? Maybe. Or maybe not. Here's what we can tell with certainty.
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Two major factors appear to contribute to this drop.
1β£ π·πΊ losses in Kursk peaked in Nov (196), then dropped dramatically in Dec (66) as π·πΊ switched gears and quit its dumb armoured column attacks while loosing regiment worth material on weekly basis, mostly VDV.
With 2024 over now, it's time to look back at it in our end-of-year overview. With numbers constantly changing (more on this down the thread), here's how it stacks up against 2023 and 2022 right now.
β¬ More colorful images β¬
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There's quite a few things we can learn just by looking at these numbers.
1β£ While MBTs stagnate, IFVs are becoming huge: 2024 saw more of them lost than π€― 2022 with entire columns wiped on weekly basis back then. Btw there's one more metric that reveals this phenomena...
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Since mid 2024 we're observing IFV-to-MBT loss ratio propelling to 3.5+ ballpark vs long-term avg 2.
Before anyone celebrates π·πΊ finally running out of tanks we'd like to be π clear with what these numbers really tell: MBTs are staying about the same while IFV usage grows.